2016 Greenberg Price Drops

-Market dilution by the vast assortment of new product available today.

-Passing of the Fifties generation of train lovers.

-Newer generation, I have read, is not as interested in collecting "anything" (even trains) as much as previous generations.

-Too many other attractive electronic distractions.

-Decline of "hobbies" in general.

-Decline of club-joining in general.

I may be one example of part of what TrainRMe stated above? I was a child of the fifties with an O gauge train and just re-entered the hobby about 4 years ago. At that time I started out to go with conventional, but after seeing the modern command control systems, and the selection of product with the details they have today, I was hooked on the modern equipment and never looked back. Personally I have now lost all desire for any of the older trains, the new modern ones are what does it for me.

 

Edit: I should have added that when I was considering getting back into the hobby and looking at conventional sets, discovering command control and the new detailed train offerings is what actually put me over the hump and got be to actually purchase something. Got an MTH starter set and ordered DCS about a week later. Until then I was just thinking about it all, the modern equipment is what really made the sale. That got me to wanting a train set instead of just looking at them.

I have to agree with TrainsRMe & rtr12. I grew up with dad's trains from the 20's & 50's. When I started buying my own trains it was the 70's and continued into the 80's. I one point I had every postwar operating accessories but with life I faced some major changes and sold off a lot of trains that I had. Then in 03' I got back into buying trains. And there started a renewed interest in trains. And also my becoming interested in command control. So my taste swung around to having all modern equipment. Once again I now have all of the operating accessories but they are all modern. Most of the trains that I now buy are scale trains, with the exception of some postwar classics especially the ones with TMCC. And I did make a very rare exception to buying a few postwar engines that my dad had which I still have but they are now in reserve status.

 

So even though I grew up in the 50's & 60's my tastes have grown into the hi tech world of trains. And I must say that I have not had a layout in my home for about 18 years now. I did set up a small display at my booth at York one year it 3'6" x 8' and it was right after Lionel brought out Legacy. On this small layout I had a oval with one siding and I had the most fun operating 2 Legacy engines at the same time that I can tell you that there is no going back for me.

 

Do they still publish price guides?
I haven't looked at one in years.

I agree.  I started collecting again two years ago and went for the trains of my childhood. I ending up buying  the postwar engines.  Then I saw Mr Muffins post on the Monon and living on a old Monon siding I had to have it. After running it with dcs I began looking for more. After the Big Boy with legacy, my 773 (1950 version) that I hunted all over for just didn't seem that special.  I haven't run a post war engine since.  I just purchased the scale Texas special and compared it to my postwar Texas special. 

See picture which would you pick?

 

I was just thinking about selling my postwar collection, given my luck it makes sense that the prices are dropping!!! 

Another possible explanation is that those most likely to want PW are WWII baby boomers and have probably already acquired whatever specific pieces they wanted which means that the market for sales to those folks is already saturated--they already have the PW items they want or had them and sold them on for one reason or another which was and is my personal experience--resulting in more supply of PW items than buyers for them.

I agree with Carl.  I see the postwar prices going down.  Years ago when I started to go to York, prices seemed high for postwar.  As all the newer trains came along, postwar is selling for less.  I know good clean postwar will still be valueable.  Many of us got our start with postwar.  I always enjoy watching a video of a postwar layout.

Price increases was so 1980's anyways.  Consistently lower prices on PW has persisted through 2 recessions.  To accelerate the decline, along came the internet and that auction site.  What was once rare became common place through mass exchange of information..  These days can be blamed on any number of the reasons already mentioned.  It not only involves PW trains but a vast array of collectibles.  An easy prediction is that prices will again increase once these things become true antiques...once they turn 100.

 

Price guides give average prices realized at auction for the same item in like condition.  Handy for insurance purposes.  Rarely do they take into account private transactions since they have no way, or business, of knowing.  Basically, if you paid price guide, you paid too much.  Then again, I'd guess that some very serious collectors still pay above price guide estimates on truly rare items in pristine condition.

 

Bruce

   When I find myself at a local train show. The Greenberg's Price Guide, will get the conversation started between the seller & buyer. That is what the book can do.

Gary

• Cheers from The

I'm ok with the prices coming down, but I'm a buyer and not a seller at this point!

Same here, Andrew.  I can finally afford some previously unattainable pieces.

IMHO the Greenberg price guide has been over inflated for years. In 2012 I found a very nice used Lionel 6-18010 PRR Turbine at York. No price. I asked the seller and he whipped out his trusty Greenberg guide. Finger scrolling down the page.... $1200. Whoa! I did ask if he could do any better. His answer was "the price in the book is the price in the book, take it or leave it"...

 

I left it... If your interest is collecting, I do respect you. But when it comes to pricing I have come to depend upon SOLD prices for Completed Listings on eBay. That is an actual price paid for the item. I do look for multiple transactions to ensure one sale isn't a single low-ball exception.

But the one on the left is an E-unit and the Postwar is an F3 - no?

Sure do.  They're useful for manufacture dates, relative price between items, scarcity, etc., especially when on the go, for those folks who don't carry on their person electronic helpers capable of retrieving such data.

And you haven't missed a thing.  In all likelihood, the Greenberg priceguides HAD to reduce prices -- for no other reason than to maintain some semblance of credibility.  There's just no way modern-day sales were ever gonna see Greenberg prices on a good day -- much less on a regular train show day.  The Greenberg prices have been living in a fantasy world for a couple of decades now, and as such outlived their usefulness.    Perhaps the newest editions may now become more relevant again.

 

David

  I agree with Dave on the grossly inflated prices. I just cannot understand their motivation for such blatant misrepresentation of prices. The guides have long claimed pricing derived from "large east coast train meets". Yet, I have never encountered Greenberg prices in reality, anywhere, whether it is a hobby shop, train meet, or online. Another troubling aspect of Greenberg's inflated pricing, are the vast numbers of transactions which have been encumbered or scuttled by the guide. Unknowledgeable sellers, trusting the veracity of the Greenberg guide, are unable to come to terms with market prices, and hold out indefinitely. And the unmotivated sellers at train meets lug the same wares from show to show, waiting for the day the Greenberg dream comes true. Doing some basic research shows the decline in prices. Here are some representative examples:

 

Item           1987 Guide (adjusted to 2015 dollars)     Current (2016 Guide) 

746 (C-5)          $519 ----------------------------        $250

2242(C-5)         $363 ---------------------------          $260

2329(C-5)         $312 --------------------------           $150

2360(C-5)         $520 -------------------------           $400

2343(C-5)         $312 --------------------------         $175

 

And my favorite, the winner: Girl's 2037-500 with 1130T tender:

Price in 1987 (converted to current dollars)  $2287.32

Price in 2016          $245.00

Percent decline: 89 percent

When I start my search for something, I always take a look at ebay's sold auction history.  I think it is a great indicator of current demand and ultimately price.  eBay...can I use that word here?

I haven't used a guide since the smart phone era.  I check the auction sites and go from there.  It's hard to argue with the data.  I realize some dealers aren't that interested in selling. In that case you have to move on.  That's why they call them train SHOWS.

The only price that's gone up is the price of the Greenberg book!  The LIST PRICE of the 2016 pocket price guide is up $2.00, or 10%, over the 2015 version.  But dealers at York and other shows discount them.

 

Bill

 

quote:

Item           1987 Guide (adjusted to 2015 dollars)     Current (2016 Guide) 

746 (C-5)          $519 ----------------------------        $250

2242(C-5)         $363 ---------------------------          $260

2329(C-5)         $312 --------------------------           $150

2360(C-5)         $520 -------------------------           $400

2343(C-5)         $312 --------------------------         $175

 

I had to look up what C-5 meant: good.

I think its absolutely true that the prices on items in anything less than c-7 (excellent) have fallen, and will continue to do so.

I also think that even items in C-7 (excellent) and above are falling if they are not boxed.

 

IMHO, the current prices on some of the pieces listed above are still high. I know I wouldn't pay that sort of money for them.

 

I think TrainsRMe stated some of the reasons for the decline quite well.

 

Who cares anyway? I don't see trains as an investment. As I have been telling my friends for years: when the prices collapse, I'll be able to purchase more trains.

 

(Someone should tell the folks at train shows that prices are down. Most tableholders at the shows I attend don't seem to be aware.)

 

I am working on my first book with Greenberg, "Greenberg's Price Guide to Greenberg Books" 

 

 

:-)

 

 

Supply and Demand dictate the market and always will....

Pure supply and demand.......

As our hobby ages and collections become available combined with less demand to those in the hobby......perfect storm. 

Sorry to echo a lot of what's been said, but as one of the "younger" guys who's into postwar I figured I'd chime in.  Some of my perspective has changed because I'm 25, have been out of college a few years, and have some disposable income.  So even if the prices haven't gone down, $100 doesn't seem as much as it did when I was a teenager and was saving my newspaper money (talk about getting out of a dying business at the right time) for a car and college.

 

Anyway, I've been told the rise in prices in the 80s/90s was the baby boomers wanting to buy what they couldn't have as a kid.  Now some are dying or selling out so the market is being, not quite flooded, but seeing some large collections for sale.

 

When I was a teenager and budding engineer I was determined to get my money's worth so I bought old trains and accessories that needed some TLC and taught myself how to fix them up.  I still do that, but I have been able to get more and more deals on items that need less work.  So as was said above, there'll always be a good market for clean operational postwar, so I'd buy lots, fix it all up, keep a few items and sell the rest.  And one could observe that with the interest boosted by stuff like the polar express, etc, the clean operational stuff is still selling well.

 

Granted even if "the prices" are going down, people are still asking big bucks.  A lot of that from people outside the hobby comes from the countless pawn, picking, and auction shows,  everyone thinks what they have is gold. 

 

The more and more I think about this, the more I think of some other factor and I change my opinion.

 

When I sell something I look at what it's been sold for recently (if I see one more article about how beanie babies are still worth money because somebody has them listed for thousands on ebay....).  You can ask whatever you want, but it's no guide.  To bring it back around, I think I had the 1998 and 2000 editions of greenbergs, but I haven't bought one since.  There are a couple good websites I trust for information on variations and history of postwar pieces, so I get my info there.

 

 

For any of you coin collectors out there, in the back of the "red book" (forget who prints it) there's a price guide to old editions of the red book, lol

Is there actually a size-able chunk of the hobby that still actively collects trains as an investment, which the intent to sell at a later date for a profit?

 

 

Since I do not buy the new stuff, the price drops have been great for me.  I have been able to buy several postwar items that I always wanted but were priced too high.  In the past year, I have picked up two Santa Fe F unit A-B-A sets at very low prices.  I use them all the time and they run great. I always wanted one as a kid but my father said that they cost too much.  I just finished cleaning up a 2025 steamer that was in a small collection that I bought a few months ago, which included one of the Santa Fe sets. Whistle now works and it runs fine.  Got a 736 Berkshire a year ago for less than 50% of what they had been selling for earlier.  I had one as a kid but my mother sold it when I went to college.   My favorite engine is a NYC F unit A-A set that also had a major drop in value. Got it real cheap. I have 3 appointments this weekend to look at collections where my daughter lives.  More good stuff may pop up.

While I like the look of Postwar trains, I prefer to have a brand new item rather than something that someone else has beat up for decades.

Thus, the PWC and Conventional Classics line is what I gravitate towards - Postwar build style but new-in-the-box.

 

quote:

Is there actually a size-able chunk of the hobby that still actively collects trains as an investment, which the intent to sell at a later date for a profit?

 

There probably are some. I think its more common for some folks to justify spending a lot of money on trains by telling themselves they'll be able to sell their trains in the future and get their money back or even make a profit.

 

Lots of folks here claim that they aren't collectors, and that collecting is dead. Yet I see plenty of posts discussing rarity and values. And the manufacturers / importers don't seem to be shy about making limited editions. And some club offerings are touted as being good investments due to their limited availability / small production numbers.

 

As for me, I buy what I like when I feel its reasonably priced. Sometimes I like items enough to have more than one. I don't care about price guides.

I rarely use the price guides for pricing, just a quick way to find production dates, etc.  I have found in my store, although it is only a few months old, that there is more interest in my vintage inventory than in the new items, especially in postwar diesel locomotives and sets.   I set pricing on my postwar items based on the average selling prices at various recent auctions and on many occasions have been told that my prices are more than fair and have never been told that they are on the high side.  One thing that I feel has helped in deflating prices in many instances is having Stout auctions listed on eBay however if you tack on their buyers premiums and shipping the prices go back to near where they should be in most cases.  Unless something drastic happens over the next several months I'll continue to specialize in pre and postwar items.

 

Nick

Nick's Vintage trains and Treasures

AXP889 really makes some good points from the perspective of a younger postwar enthusiast. I am also relatively young in my early 40's, and an outsider among the larger Wolfpack in their 60's to 90's. 

At TCA meets, conversations among aged collectors always seem to stray toward awkward topics involving someone's hip or prostrate problems. Not my social circle and that is why I am not a TCA member. Many are done and want to sell out. Some are motivated to sell and not saddle their families with an unwanted collection when they pass. Others hang on to the bitter end refusing to accept market prices (in part due to Greenberg's misrepresentation of values) The fate of their collections and the financial outcome for their families is far worse. For them, the bottom feeding Internet resellers will circle like vultures, waiting to cart everything off, and leave a grieving widow with 5 cents on the dollar. They won't take 50 or 75 cents on the dollar, so instead leave their loved ones with nothing.

The larger point is that Greenberg's inflated values are more than deceptive. They can cause real financial injury to many who miss opportunities due to misleading information.

It's some indicator, but with significant limitations. In many cases auction sites tend to skew prices down, because many people shop them only for the purpose of finding items that are underpriced. It's frequently questionable whether their sale prices reflect true market value.

 

The other thing about the auction sites, particularly Ebay, is that it's a crap shoot. It's often too random to draw valid conclusions on valuation. The same item can sell on one day for $100, and the next day - or the day before - sell for $60. It's hard to draw any conclusion on value in that kind of sales environment.

Well I suppose it also depends on why you want the value.  If you want an insurance value, then yes, ebay isn't the right forum, get a price guide.  If you're looking to sell it, then I believe it's the best gauge of where to start your auction with a reasonable price.

I got into PW a few years when a friend was downsizing and he had a nice PW collection that he wanted to sell.  Since then, I have enjoyed collecting, working on and restoring pieces from that era exclusively, but frequently find Ebay sellers are way out of touch with pricing.  

 

One in particular is the 3435 Aquarium car from 1958-60.   The base yellow lettered car is worth about $ 56 ( good condition ) in the catalog and people are trying to get $ 125 in that condition.

 

 

For some, with erroneous pricing in Greenburg guides and Lionel promoting itself as a company marketing limited editions and BTO trains, its difficult to get beyond that false collector narrative that still exists in the hobby today.

That silly $2K chrome plated slug honoring a non- event is the latest expensive example of collectable foolishness.

IMO, forget 115 years, this year, that engine should honor the 15 year anniversary of this forum. It has far more significance. It is one that should be applauded but goes unnoticed.

Joe  

 

quote:

Others hang on to the bitter end refusing to accept market prices (in part due to Greenberg's misrepresentation of values)

 

I think this is a very infrequent occurrence. I think folks get values on their trains set in their heads and stick to  them, regardless of what's written in price guides, or what is actually happening at their local train shows. If a price guide supports their idea, they'll show it to potential customers. If not, the guide won't be mentioned.

quote:

It's some indicator, but with significant limitations. In many cases auction sites tend to skew prices down, because many people shop them only for the purpose of finding items that are underpriced. It's frequently questionable whether their sale prices reflect true market value.

 

The other thing about the auction sites, particularly Ebay, is that it's a crap shoot. It's often too random to draw valid conclusions on valuation. The same item can sell on one day for $100, and the next day - or the day before - sell for $60. It's hard to draw any conclusion on value in that kind of sales environment.

 

I see the exact opposite. For the most part, the prices I've observed on EBay tend to be on the high side, because there are bidders from all over the country competing for the lots. Its certainly true that the closing price on any one auction can be abnormally high or abnormally low. And folks can set opening bids / buy it now anyplace they like.

So I suggest that when using EBay for pricing, one must look at the closing price of a number of sold items. And don't forget to consider condition and shipping cost. Some folks charge excessive shipping.

 

quote:

One in particular is the 3435 Aquarium car from 1958-60.   The base yellow lettered car is worth about $ 56 ( good condition ) in the catalog and people are trying to get $ 125 in that condition.

 

Have you found one for $56, or know of some confirmed sales at that price?
Just as a price guide can have prices that are too high, they can also have prices that are too low.

Bingo. And exactly why I think Lionel missed the boat by dropping the CC line. I know, the market place has -- apparently -- spoken but I thought these were a superb idea for the very reasons you mention. PW look in a modern package. Not unlike why some prefer to buy their tinplate trains new (as remakes) rather than going for the Real McCoy.

Beat up is what I look for.  I can buy them cheap, repair, strip, paint and polish then run tem.  I get the biggest kick out of seeing something I have resurrected run, smoke and toot.

 

Bud

The train market today is flooded with all kinds of products at great prices. Extensive collections are coming on the market every month, new product keeps getting produced while the number of hobbyists declines sharply every year.  I view trains as a losing investment. They may no longer be worth any money but they are worth hours of enjoyment.  

No its not all doom and gloom as the fun aspect is still very much there. Its a great time to be an operator and enjoy building and running a large layout on a small budget