2023 Big Book: Knee Jerk Reactions

Chris

Did a quick look now and will watch in it's entirety later on my tv. Enjoyed the look over.  Nice format.  BTW I thought I was already subscribed but it said I wasn't...so I did.

It's not just our hobby or Lionel Chris.  The vitriol, It's everywhere, the world we live in.

I enjoy the catalog. This one seems to have more in it than others in the past. If it's out of my budget, so be it. I don't drive a Cadillac either.

New, H.O. certainly isn't cheap. $700 for an engine that fits in one hand.

@RickO posted:

It's not just our hobby or Lionel Chris. It's everywhere, the world we live in.

I enjoy the catalog. This one seems to have more in it that others in the past. If it's out of my budget, so be it. I don't drive a Cadillac either.

New, H.O. certainly isn't cheap. $700 for an engine that fits in one hand.

Couldn’t agree more. I was looking at some HO stuff a few months back for a project and was shocked by the price. Granted that’s not a world I live in, so I just wasn’t expecting it. Same for those not in O gauge.

Totally agree Chris! We can’t avoid the economic impact on consumer prices…heck my dog’s food is up $10 dollars a bag!

Since I don’t have a Big Boy, I’m seriously considering it. Some online dealers have really attractive pre order pricing.

other than that, I’m waiting for that vision line PE engine…. Haha

@Cmontagna posted:

Granted that’s not a world I live in, so I just wasn’t expecting it. Same for those not in O gauge.

My "the world we live in" was more in regards to the complaining. You can't get a cup of coffee these days without someone in line throwing a fit.

Nice thread Chris, I couldn't agree more about the pricing.  I saw in the catalog where they had some caboose's and a couple of them were over $300 or was it $200, whichever, that is totally outrageous for a piece of rolling stock even if it has a camera in it, is it a 4K camera?  Being an SP nut, there wasn't that much in it (except for a couple of diesels) that really got me going about it.

Wonder if they will have a 2nd catalog later in the year.  Hmmmmmmm!

I think we can all agree that the most anticipated item in the catalog is the 3" piece of FasTrack!

Jon

@Arcadebrothers posted:

Some online dealers have really attractive pre order pricing.

This helped me make my decision. Their price was excellent so I went with it. Especially because I don't have a Bigboy, I love smoke features, and I love the depleting coal feature.

I think people really just enjoy the righteous feeling they get from complaining. In any case, I thought it was an impressive catalog from Lionel and I still love the hobby. I have a few months to sell some of my collection, sell some 3D prints, or get a part time job. Otherwise, yeah, I couldn't afford it and wouldn't get it.

Also love the channel @Cmontagna!

@KOOLjock1 posted:

I think we can all agree that the most anticipated item in the catalog is the 3" piece of FasTrack!

Jon

LMAO

@KOOLjock1 posted:

I think we can all agree that the most anticipated item in the catalog is the 3" piece of FasTrack!

Jon

Closely followed by the Area 51 green glow-in-the-dark barrels.

And by the way, while I've made fun of catalog review videos in the past... this one was exceptionally well done, entertaining and professional.  So I withdraw my previous opinion...

Jon

The ruination of the world is people caring about social media or what goes on in it more than thinking themselves.  I like to decide things with my own brain  I like to make my buying decisions with my own brain  I figure things out myself and could give two poops of what "people" are thinking on social media or how many likes a certain thing gets.  BTW   Lionel is the last company that gives you a catalog on O gauge

Hey Chris, nice video and analysis. I’ve now subscribed to your channel!  Similar to a couple other responses above, I’m an “it is what it is” guy when it comes to pricing. However, I agree with you regarding the Big Boy pricing. Far more relevant than a nearly 20 year old JLC model, the interesting comparison is the original Vision release since the two are nearly identical. The fact that the current release is only up 200 bones in the face of record inflation and all the well documented supply chain challenges is actually a pleasant surprise to me. But, again, it is what it is - one is either willing to pay what this stuff now costs or not. Either way, it sends a message to the manufacturer.  

Again, I really enjoyed your video and look forward to more of your content.

Your post is a breath of fresh air, particularly coming from a younger and more influential member of the hobby.  It gets tiring to hear geezers like myself saying how in their day they walked uphill both ways to the hobby shop, barefoot, in the driving snow, and only had to pay 6 pence for a locomotive.   Aging is tough.  Not being able to afford your heart's desire is tough too, but there are usually reasonable choices to be made that give some satisfaction and pleasure.  Complaining is the world's oldest and most common, yet often annoyingly irrational sport.  It does seem to substitute for actual productive thought and action for some folks.

As mentioned, this is the last company making any comprehensive catalog. Enjoy it while it lasts.  It may not.  Then again, it may.  Pricing, as mentioned, is never something that pleases people.  Folks were transported to Australia 200 years ago for stealing a loaf of bread that cost 6 pence for their starving families. Things could be worse.  Not that Australia was so bad, but the sea journey killed people.  So enjoy what you can, because no one lives forever, or gets everything they want. And if they do get everything they want, some will still find something to complain about.

As for me, I'll buy what seems reasonable and desirable and not begrudge those with more money, more passion or less common sense .

Thanks Chris for all you do - I'm just thrilled that we are still able to keep doing this a couple times a year - at the risk of sounding a little "Corny" I know I'm blessed

Folks complaining about price is nothing limited to trains. I hear it nonstop in my other hobbies (cars, comics, toys). It has gotten to the point that I really don't even talk to others about any of them. This forum is the only place I really spend any time discussing hobbies online in any real capacity because enough folks here have a reasonable outlook on things. Too much BS and complaining elsewhere. Let people enjoy something. I think we can all agree prices are up. I think we can all agree that they could be a little cheaper, but guess what... it is - what it is. Buy what you can. Enjoy what you have.

I try not to complain about prices gentlemen, I just won't buy.

Disposable income,...

Neighbor:    "hey, what did you get for Christmas?"

Me:  "I don't know, it runs all year and I don't remember it all",

Oh,..   and a set of those Southern E8's in Tuxedo Black have my name on them,..

Some people aren’t happy unless they are complaining about something, and guess what?  They are happy all the time!😱😂😳😮

@laz1957 posted:

Some people aren’t happy unless they are complaining about something, and guess what?  They are happy all the time!😱😂😳😮

Man you complain 1 time about no "Ado's" and he rakes you over the coals.

@MartyE posted:

Man you complain 1 time about no "Ado's" and he rakes you over the coals.

LOL!!!😂🤣😂👏👍👍 YOU GOT ME!!!

What gets me is a standard box car is over the $100 retail mark and a 3 pack of VL reefers retails at $499. There is nothing VL about those reefers, one of them has sound and the other 2 are just normal reefers with new road numbers from years past. I couldn't even sell my reefers and box cars for $35 a car with Kadees and no box. Yet I know people are pre-ordering those 3 packs like crazy. There are still people that pay the prices no matter what, and always will. We all complained about buying the first VL Big Boy for $1850 but we all did. So if you want it, you'll pay the price... no different than a dozen eggs right now.

@Cmontagna posted:

...Just to clear the air on that, I agree that 2899 is a lot of money (who wouldn't). However, the 2699.99 price tag in 2014 equates 3,400 in 2023 dollars, so by all intents and purposes, those ordering a Big Boy this month should be breathing a sigh of relief.

The use of the change (2014 to 2023) in Consumer Price Index (CPI) does give that $3400 amount.  However, there are numerous components that have declined greatly in price in that same time period despite the time period's 25% CPI average increase.  For example, a Sony KD series 65 inch 4K LED flat screen TV listed for approximately $4000 in 2014 but the same KD series with the same or better modern day add-ons can be bought $600 to $800 today.  The consumer electronics component appear to be significantly cheaper providing more bang for the buck in today's dollars than in 2014.  IMHO Lionel's pricing, among other things is a function of their belief that the consumer will pay a premium for the Lionel brand/tech features/sound.  Even before the 2 year pandemic/supply chain anomaly, it been debated that Lionel might be too... aggressive or cocky with their prices.  In a shrinking hobby/industry with little, to no serious competition the Lionel pricing is what it is:  if you want their new product, you pay their prices.

PS:  IIRC everyday dealer price discounts in 2014 where typically 10 to 20% off MSRP; today we're lucky to see 5 to 10% off on pre-orders.

@Keystone posted:

For example, a Sony KD series 65 inch 4K LED flat screen TV listed for approximately $4000 in 2014 but the same KD series with the same or better modern day add-ons can be bought $600 to $800 today.  The consumer electronics component appear to be significantly cheaper providing more bang for the buck in today's dollars than in 2014.  IMHO Lionel's pricing, among other things is a function of their belief that the consumer will pay a premium for the Lionel brand/tech features/sound.  Even before the 2 year pandemic/supply chain anomaly, it been debated that Lionel might be too... aggressive or cocky with their prices.

Not a fair comparison. There are 131 million housholds in the US. I suspect many of them have a flat-screen TV.

Electronics companies make money on high volume, and the better overseas contractors get these gigs because they earn more, due to the high volume.

If Lionel had a million pre-orders, I'm sure prices would come down.

"due to the high volume."

Spreading the product development costs and other overhead over a million TV sets or tablets leads to the insight that Lionel spreading its overhead over a thousand locos or 10,000 sets is going to get you less value per consumer dollar. It's mostly that simple, as pointed out by Rick.

That's one reason a Subaru is better value than a Rolls Royce .  Not much difference in safety, reliability or functionality.  Prestige and glitz are another story.

Terrific overview Chris!  Greatly appreciate your insights on many of the new items in the catalog.

I have a similar approach to evaluating which items to consider for purchase, factoring in how much I can afford and willing to pay.  That is the fun part of the hobby.    Among my purchases over the last several years, I had tremendous fun with the Five-Star General set and the Budweiser version a few years later which were low priced items. The Area 51 set could be that item today,  given that they are already in stock and probably priced appropriately.

I do have one ask, if possible, I believe the minimum curve for the 4-8-4 should be  072, so if true, perhaps you could edit your video. 

@RickO posted:

Not a fair comparison. There are 131 million housholds in the US. I suspect many of them have a flat-screen TV.

Electronics companies make money on high volume, and the better overseas contractors get these gigs because they earn more, due to the high volume.

If Lionel had a million pre-orders, I'm sure prices would come down.

I disagree; if Lionel had a million pre-orders, I'm sure Lionel's equity owners would continue the status-quo to maximize their shareholder returns.  The O gauge model train industry is a relative spec on the consumer electronics scale but Lionel and the others made a conscious decision to put production in locations that gave them the quickest and largest profit in the immediate window; not worrying, planning or understanding about tomorrow.

@RickO posted:

If Lionel had a million pre-orders, I'm sure prices would come down.

Keep dreaming! You are forgetting that this side of the hobby is a virtual monopoly!

@Landsteiner posted:

That's one reason a Subaru is better value than a Rolls Royce .  Not much difference in safety, reliability or functionality.  Prestige and glitz are another story.

Couldn't the Subaru versus Rolls Royce valuation comparison also be applied to Williams, Atlas, MTH versus Lionel?

"Couldn't the Subaru versus Rolls Royce valuation comparison also be applied to Williams, Atlas, MTH versus Lionel?"

I don't think so.  Rolls Royce has few features that the Subaru Outback doesn't have in terms of functionality or safety or reliability.

Lionel had command control six years before MTH, almost always better sounds, and and then issued Atlas a less feature rich version of their command control and sounds once Legacy was introduced.  Williams products have always lacked most of the high tech electronic features of Lionel locos. There are great functional differences here, not just brand name and luxury realities.

And where Rolls is 5-7 times the price of a Subaru, give or take, Lionel's price premium has usually been no more than 10-20% compared with MTH, negligible with Atlas, and perhaps 1.5-2 fold over Williams.  So overall, while one is paying more for Lionel usually,  partially due to brand prestige, there are also functional/feature differences of substance in most cases, particularly for Williams and Atlas.

If you can afford $450 for a diesel locomotive, then $550 is not a strikingly big difference for many people.  If you can afford $1200 for a steam locomotive, then $1500 is not a strikingly large difference in some ways.  Everyone's mileage varies of course.

And Lionel's sets have always been much less expensive than MTH's, and with fewer features in most instances.  It's not straightforward.  MTH now has almost no overhead compared with their historical expenses and costs of goods produced, and they haven't starting charging less for their products, which should tell us something about costs and margins.

What a GREAT presentation, Chris!

THANK YOU!

As usual, Chris is entertaining and informative.  Well done!!   Lionel continues to impress us with outstanding engineering, new models, and new features.  It's impossible to resist the urge to review the catalog offerings several times.  It recreates the endorphin rush, that you had as a kid, looking at the Lionel display in your favorite department store. 

However, the real bone of contention for most model train enthusiast regarding Lionel and the future of O Gauge will rest not with price alone.  The elephant in the room is QUALITY CONTROL, or the lack of it.  The frustration of zinc pest, unreliable electronics, and a total lack of replacement parts, is unacceptable.  This is only compounded by the attitude, attributed to Lionel management, that "it's a toy" and thus disposable. 

I hope that the people in charge will take seriously the devotion and passion of Lionel enthusiast.  I write this not as negative criticism but as a plea for consumer positive change. 

As a “semi-scale “ modeler, I feel the FT diesels are a great value. I also like the Mikados. The 2-8-0 (probably the old Railking model) is a good value, but I HATE the PRR boiler with non-PRR roadnames!  No thanks for that one. My 2 cents. JohnA

@Landsteiner posted:

If you can afford $450 for a diesel locomotive, then $550 is not a strikingly big difference for many people.  If you can afford $1200 for a steam locomotive, then $1500 is not a strikingly large difference in some ways.  Everyone's mileage varies of course.

And Lionel's sets have always been much less expensive than MTH's, and with fewer features in most instances.  It's not straightforward.  MTH now has almost no overhead compared with their historical expenses and costs of goods produced, and they haven't starting charging less for their products, which should tell us something about costs and margins.

The rise in price has for both companies has been about the same at around 15% markup from 2020 to now.  For reference, MTH sold recently advertised a Premier GP diesel for $579 for 2023 production, in 2020 they advertise a very similar Premier GP for $500. Comparable Lionel Legacy Diesels went from $550 (2020) to $650 in this catalog depending on the model.

In my opinion, Lionel sets the price and MTH follows up by undercutting that price. If Lionel price doesn't budge then neither does MTH, and if Lionel needs to raise the price, then MTH can (and usually will) too.

I think there are some good deals to be found in this catalog and some confusing not so good deals. For example on page 74 & 75, They have an LC2 ET44ac for $400 which I think is pretty reasonable and a nice price after a dealer discount.  Now on Page 75 you have a GP-20 for $500 with all of the same features, why the big price gap? I assume the GP-20 is scale but is that why they want significantly more for it? The same can be said for the NW-2 on the same page, $450 for the same features and again I assume it would be scale or very close to it.

Also the $700 LC2 mikado seems high, for that price I'd rather get one of the Camelbacks with Legacy sounds and Whistle steam which is really a pretty nice deal.

Nobody likes higher prices and really neither does Lionel nor MTH, but they need to maintain their profit margins to keep the lights on and the doors open too. If either one keeps charging 2020 prices in 2023, there's a good chance they could both be out of business by 2026.

@Big Jim posted:

Keep dreaming! You are forgetting that this side of the hobby is a virtual monopoly!

And whose fault is that?

My knee jerked when I saw that newly tooled Lionel Diesels now list at the same price as 3rd Rail diesels.

- Crank

I was gonna buy that Big Boy, but my wife needed eggs this week.

Jon

@Keystone posted:

... not worrying, planning or understanding about tomorrow.

1.) Where's your evidence for this conclusion?

Are you an expert on product development and manufacturing?  The hobby business?

Let's see your data.  Gut feel isn't acceptable here.  No data, no valid point.

@Keystone posted:

... but Lionel and the others made a conscious decision to put production in locations that gave them the quickest and largest profit in the immediate window ...

2.) So has EVERY manufacturer in the U.S., with few exceptions, no matter the business or the market it services.  In light of that how can you hold this against them?

Mike

I suspect most recognize that pricing is a product of costs of materials, labor, packaging, transport and development.  These have gone up substantially in the last few years.  But there is also overhead. You need a roof, insurance, bathrooms and lights.  These are spread over the number of products. There is absolutely no economy of scale in this industry given the decreasing number of hobbyists.  So we have a vicious cycle of decreasing production and increasing costs.  It's not greed, it's economics that prices are rising.  As mentioned above, the lack of competition could be another factor coming out, but with MTH still around and underpricing Lionel in many cases, that's a good thing .