Are Diesels taking over ?

@Tom Tee posted:

Is steam interest dying off along with elderly steam modelers?

According to Ryan Kunkle (via Notch 6 podcast), the steam market has been waning for years.  I doubt it's dying off.

I am strictly in the steam camp, but I assume modelers will be most interested in what they see on the rails today. 

@Frank Mulligan posted:

I am strictly in the steam camp, but I assume modelers will be most interested in what they see on the rails today.

Frank,

Think about what you're saying.

Since modelers haven't seen steam locomotives in revenue service since 1961 your logic would seem to indicate that we should have seen a noticeable drop in steam interest by modelers by about 1970.

Did that actually happen? No. Not by any measure.

Is it happening now? No, although it might be for other reasons.

Mike

I see lots of steam, Strasburg steam, the N&W 611 J, the Reading T1's, etc.

I based my quick analysis on the custom runs that dealers are commissioning.  Overwhelmingly diesels from what I see (a lot of switchers).  I've asked myself if there was enough market for these.  I suppose so?

The first, and almost exclusive trains my three grandsons want to see running are steam engins (with smoke).  This beats out the non smoking Thomas and friends. Even the postwar smoking steam engines win out over Thomas.

They love blowing the whistle.

With the BTO format of dealers ordering trains. I believe the steamers still sell. Most are shipped out as they arrive to waiting customers. With the many variations of the same model these days.  A dealer may only order a couple extras to display. You can probably put 3 diesels to 1 steamer on the shelf to sell. I would think dealers are more likely to take a chance and order extra diesels for inventory.

@Tom Tee posted:

After a long absence I finally got to visit Nicholas Smith's store for some needed stock, been going there since it opened.  I noticed the traditional right hand corner shelf by the cashier of steam engines was populated primarily by Diesels.  Also Diesels were emphasized elsewhere.

You can easily see how Lionel is the only major player these days.

Any merchant is wise to feature that which is selling.

Is steam interest dying off along with elderly steam modelers?

Good question.

Elderly steam modelers may be declining but I don't think that applies to interest in steam.

Steam locomotives dominated railroading in the United States for over a century. As such, steam engines, the steam era and its history become familiar to anyone who becomes a model railroader - especially those who read model railroad magazines and look at model railroading websites on line. Therefore, I think there will always be an interest in steam among new model railroaders. The cost of high-end steam locomotive models tends to discourage many people from buying them and so they purchase diesels instead. It's becoming harder even for dealers to afford having steam locomotive models sitting on their shelves, so you see fewer in your local train store...

By the time I became a model railroader (early 1950s), steam was mostly gone from the scene, but I can't imagine having a model railroad without steam. And - many of the diesel models that are popular today are first generation locomotives that appeared 75 years ago - long before younger model railroaders joined the hobby. My two cents - for what it's worth...

MELGAR

I'm in the steam camp as well. Diesels are cheaper than steam in almost all models for sale with few exceptions. Overall Lionel catalogs generally have more diesels in them, don't know what ratio that would be from catalog to catalog, but it is a fact.

A few years ago, the second catalog Lionel releases had two or three types of steam locomotives, offered in a few different road names. This was the sum of six pages. The diesels had about 5 different types(maybe more) with quite a few different road names. Granted this is the smaller catalog, and there should be less to make, and sometimes it has been about equal.

The train store I go to has about equal steam to diesel on the shelf, but I'd eager just a bit more of steam(scale stuff). If you factored in the semi scale, diesels take the lion's share easily as there is just so much more. Whether it is command, post war, there's just more diesels out there overall.

As far as producing them, I would imagine that they would be slightly easier overall. Guessing that because less smoke units, plastic bodies for most, that sort of stuff. Besides, you could pick up an AA and a B unit for the cost of just one steam engine(in some cases).

Me, I'm still going to buy steam, because there are only a few diesel engines that I like to look at(older buggers that came in against steam).

Interesting observation. I prefer steam. We started with lots of diesels, where now I feel like all we buy is steam.

I was interested in buying the Santa Fe yellow F3s from the V1 Lionel catalog but for an ABBA it would be $2000. At this point I would rather have big steam like the 2-10-10-2.

SuperChief

I don't think interest in steam has waned at all, even amongst new people joining the hobby.  Everyone, even non-train people, loves to see all the moving parts on a steam engine.  My theory is this:

- Inflation and labor rates have driven manufacturing costs and, by extension, MSRPs to the sky, turning people off of buying new steam.

- Tons of highly detailed steam models have been produced over the past 20 years by MTH, Lionel, and others.  With many older modelers who bought these models brand new now selling their collections or passing on, there exists a large second-hand market for new hobbyists with options that are a fraction of the cost of new models.

Simple as that.  People always have and always will be limited by money, and as long as there are cheaper alternatives out there, people will choose them.  In the future, perhaps the second-hand market may wane as older models get bought up, and manufacturers will be called on to increase production to meet demand.

I agree with Mel'.. A dealer looks at inventory expense verses net profit from sales.  It's better for him to display three or four $400.00 diesels instead of one steamer @$1600.00 .. However, I believe every layout may have at least one or two steamers on it. 

My experience in the industry is that interest in steam locomotives is waning albeit at a very slow rate.  Manufacturers produce what sells and if it isn't being manufactured, it is not based on any bias against a product, it is a function of the market at work. 

While most don't want to hear this, the steam that will continue to sell are the ones that have been done over and over like the NYC Hudson, the PRR K4s, the N&W J, GS Daylights, Challengers, and the Big Boy to name the major ones.  The market for the unusual or road specific steam that ran in small numbers is what is largely gone now at nearly all price points.  All the catalogs bear this out with generic designs using existing tooling with a few nods to some road specific details, but not many. 

There are a few steam locomotives I would love to see in O scale myself, but don't expect to at this point.  However, I don't see this necessarily as a negative.  I see it as an opportunity to hone my modeling skills which often leads to more satisfying results.     

Truthfully, if the variety of locomotives narrows, that will give me time and money to concentrate on other aspects of the layout.

You start by getting rid of the steam engines and going diesel.  Next you can get rid of your roundhouses and service facilities and put in a bids terminal or sell off the real estate.   All of those O scale figures  will now be unemployed and  have to move to a different part of the layout.

Model world follows real world.

Harold

@HSD68 posted:

Model world follows real world.

Maybe in your world, but not in mine!   I'm keeping the steam!

I suspect diesels are just more cost effective at the moment. Some of it could be that a growing portion of model railroaders grew up with diesels though. That makes sense. I'm a steam guy and I've only ever seen one steam locomotive run on the rails in person. I just like them. I like the ruckus of the real steamers and the model steamers. Early diesels interest me too. I just like machines that are unpolished  

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

Truthfully, if the variety of locomotives narrows, that will give me time and money to concentrate on other aspects of the layout.

Ditto.

It'll take me a long time to wear out 50+ steam locomotives, if that happens, then I can run some of my diesels to fill in the time.

One thing to favor Diesels is that generally speaking a model loco could be lettered for many other RRs with maybe a change of a minor detail part and the ink pad.  Very economical.

Quite a few steam engine models (other than USRA models) are specific for one RR only.  Only certain models were made for a group of RRs.

No AC cab forward locomotives in the rest of the country.

The PRR K-4, Big Boy, Yellowstone, Alleghany and others are very specific in owner.  Not as economical to produce.

This argument has been out there a while, and without rehashing other posters (who make valid points, for example, that steam engines are generally more expensive than diesels and are often made BTO) I think the idea that the only people who want steam engines are people who saw them in service is a misperception. The last steam engines went out of routine service by 1960, and really many years before that. While of course there people who remember steam in active use, that really only covers people born before 1950 (even someone born in 1950 would likely not remember steam engines in regular use,by the mid 50's many railroads had retired them).  I have seen a lot of layouts running steam built by people who were born well after 1950. Obviously there are modelers in all scales who like modern era trains, but prob the most common form of layout I see in MR and other magazines is steam to diesel transition era, def has a plurality of all layouts I have seen or read about.

When they sell lionchief, the steam units do really well for example. Railking did pretty well with their diesels, and therein may be the rub. A lot of the steam engines being produced today are very expensive, which limits their audience (and I would bet more than a few of those expensive engines are bought by those of us who never saw active steam).  Diesels, even the most detailed ones, tend to be a lot cheaper, and while they do BTO with Diesels, they still make them where they end up on retail shelves. Not surprised MTH is not making steam with their custom run model, prob just too expensive at either end to make a decent profit and charge a price people will pay.

The other thing is if you think about it, people don't have that much interaction with trains, yet still get into the hobby. Sure, you might see a freight train in the distance, or a local shortline, and passenger travel for most people may be commuter rail (that they use I mean). It is a very different era than prior times, yet people still gravitate to trains and train modeling.

@GG1 4877 posted:

... the steam that will continue to sell are the ones that have been done over and over like the NYC Hudson, the PRR K4s, the N&W J, GS Daylights, Challengers, and the Big Boy to name the major ones.

Jonathan,

I think the part of your comment (in bold) above sums up the situation correctly. Tooling also exists for some of the smaller types of steam locomotives such as 0-4-0, 0-6-0, 0-8-0, 2-6-0, 4-4-0, 4-4-2, 4-6-0 and 2-8-0, and I hope these can continue to be produced at more affordable prices.

MELGAR

Scott Mann posted a comment awhile back that said in effect that small steam engines do not cost that much less than large steam engines to produce.

I believe he also said that it is the quantity of the production run that has one of the larger effects on the cost factor.

@MELGAR posted:

Jonathan,

I think the part of your comment (in bold) above sums up the situation correctly. Tooling also exists for some of the smaller types of steam locomotives such as 0-4-0, 0-6-0, 0-8-0, 2-6-0, 4-4-0, 4-4-2, 4-6-0 and 2-8-0, and I hope these can continue to be produced at more affordable prices.

MELGAR

I agree that the smaller locomotives, especially the USRA types where the tooling is already done are definitely very feasible to continue to offer.  The investment to run them again is minimal.  The biggest challenge with existing tools is access to the factory that holds it. 

@Tom Tee posted:

Scott Mann posted a comment awhile back that said in effect that small steam engines do not cost that much less than large steam engines to produce.

I believe he also said that it is the quantity of the production run that has one of the larger effects on the cost factor.

Which always made me wonder why larger steam engines can have an msrp of more than twice the price of smaller steam engines

Scott's comments were concerning hand made lifetime brass models.  The die cast market place is somewhat of a different critter.

I watched steam as a kid, l ride behind steam when l can, l only want to model steam. When l moved into Lionel-compatible trains in the '80's, l already found the rerunning of a few prototypes, and all the varieties of small steamers in HO did not exist.  I hoped, and then bashed.

@MELGAR posted:

Jonathan,

I think the part of your comment (in bold) above sums up the situation correctly. Tooling also exists for some of the smaller types of steam locomotives such as 0-4-0, 0-6-0, 0-8-0, 2-6-0, 4-4-0, 4-4-2, 4-6-0 and 2-8-0, and I hope these can continue to be produced at more affordable prices.

MELGAR

This post brought up a turning point I experienced.

I believe I backed myself into a corner earlier.  Building this large multiple branch line RR naturally calls for smaller engines.  Initially I had thought that I had graduated from running trains to operating a RR.  Maybe yes, but not really.  Running trains is still a bag of fun.

Well after running some small early 20th century locomotives for a while now,  I just did not get that much of a hit from them.  They seemed rather anemic.   Their visual impact was like that of a disappointing blind date to me.

I made an executive decision to patch two branch line dead end terminals together for a run through with a shared TT.  It was fortuitous that the RR had been built with rather large curves.

So after replenishing my large engine inventory,  running  trains now has become much more enjoyable. 

Operations can still flourish,   simply stash the big iron away on staging tracks and run the peddler freights along with small town commuter traffic to the many small towns.

There may be an allure with small engines but in my mind nothing beats a Allegheny,  PRR T-1, NYC 4-8-4 or a Class A  bellowing smoke and churning up the rails announcing it's presence with vibrating sounds.  Sounding the whistle on my 2-8-0's and  2-6-0's just does not do it for me.

Oh...if you are in the process of designing a new layout, trust me on this,  double the amount of storage or staging tracks you think you will be needing.

i myself would love to have some steam especially tinplate like the lionel commodore vanderbilts and red comet

sadly that money is unavailable to me right now

i actually may be one of the youngest guys thats into tinplate and steam on this forum anyway

Ok, my 2 cent story is, my local dealers, 1 is 55 miles from my home, the other is 100 miles away are not stocking anything, just taking Orders, BTO…. These dealers use to have medium to larger inventories, where shopping was a lot of fun. Now, If it wasn’t for some of the big dealers in large cities, I’m not sure where we would find the better steamers if not pre-ordered. Now that Lionel is not showing all their offerings in either of their paper catalogs, it’s hard to know if the small dealers will survive. It’s been a good year for steamers under a grand, see the Lionel 2-8-0 Consolidation locomotives threads here on the forum. I asked Patrick’s Trains why he didn’t run more special runs of Diesels and Steamers with Lionel’s Legacy and he said minimum quantities were to high and that’s why he makes special runs of MTH- DCS. So, if you want a particularly diesel or steamer that’s being offered, you best place your order although it may be a year before you see the package. Happy Railroading Everyone