So do ya feel lucky???
Seriously, whether you pre-order or not really depends on the importer:
Sunset / 3rd Rail / GGD: ABSOLUTELY required. There's little to no established dealer network, so you're ordering direct from the importer. And they really seem to build to their pre-orders. Occasionally, some cancellations may result in a few extra items sitting in inventory for a bit. But generally speaking, you'll be out of luck if you don't pre-order.
Atlas-O: If you REALLY want something, pre-order it... as they've been known to cancel production of certain roadnames if the pre-orders aren't there. Unfortunately, Atlas-O has entered a period of unusually lengthy production delays -- especially for locomotives. So expect to almost forget that you've pre-ordered something when the dealer notifies you that your items have FINALLY arrived. Dealers do seem to order a few extra's above and beyond actual customer pre-orders. So you can take your chances that way, if you prefer seeing and hearing the production model. But don't wait too long.
MTH: Best to pre-order something that you REALLY want. But know that the pre-order price may not be the absolute lowest you'll see. Dealers having 15% off "sales" with free shipping can save you hundreds if you time the purchase right (and you're a bit lucky). Generally speaking, the MTH dealer network is large enough that you should have no trouble finding what you need after MTH delivers. But for something really special -- for me, it was the Rocky Mountaineer diesel locomotive in the last catalog -- it was worth it to pre-order rather than miss out... Or worse yet, discover that MTH cancelled the locomotive for insufficient orders. What I'm REALLY hoping for on this one is that MTH will follow up with an entire Rocky Mountaineer SET (another loco with 7 or more high-level passenger cars in this paint scheme) in the next catalog. After all, why just produce a special locomotive like this if you can't run the entire train? So this was definitely worth a pre-order to help provide the incentive necessary for MTH to produce the whole enchilada.
Lionel: The importer with the largest well-established dealer network makes it almost completely unnecessary to pre-order ANYTHING. Several of the large national dealers tend to order PLENTY of extra inventory -- even the higher end BTO items. I think we're good for several more catalog cycles doing the watch-and-wait game for Lionel items -- especially since Lionel's track record for delivering items exactly as they're catalog'd hasn't been the best in recent years. Of all the importers, I'd say Lionel needs to work hardest to bolster its reputation to better deliver what they illustrate in the catalog. Too many disappointments lately. Truth be told, I pre-ordered one of the upcoming Shay's because I love that locomotive so much and wanted a Legacy version AND got a super great pre-order price below Lionel's MAP. But that's the pre-order exception more than the rule for me. Now I pretty much wait for delivery -- and even at that, only VERY selectively purchase anything Lionel nowadays if it's really something unique/special. Their MSRP's are ridiculous, and typically I wouldn't want to purchase anything Lionel unless dealers are offering one of their "15% discounts with free shipping" sales. Those sales bring the price closer to where it should have been in the first place. I just wish there was a better way for Lionel to take the hit on pricing, rather than have the dealer lose margin. To date, NOT ONE Lionel item I've had my eye on has sold out before delivery. So if you're on a tight budget, just wait for the big discount sales... and have fun going on a shopping spree!
David