Are people holding off buying trains?

I don't know about everyone else but I'm only buying stuff that fits my needs instead of running rampant thru the aisles, buying everything in sight.

Rolling stock - looking for certain RRs and types and mainly Atlas or Weaver.

Engines - mainly steam, mainly 4-8-2, mainly one that is close to what Seaboard Air Line had.  the only other engine I desire is a GP7, having recently got a great deal on an Atlas F3A.

Buildings - must fit the industry in question and a spot on my layout.  IMO prices for custom buildings are thru the roof, worse than rolling stock.  $90+ for a 6"x7" plain structure (that you have to build and paint) is just too much.

Recently went to a Greenberg show, probably my last one.  Nothing but the same over-priced old trains and junk.

On the bright side...I did find a couple of Atlas cars at Petersen Supply Company that I wanted.  Paid a lot for them but they were what I was looking for and nobody else had them.  These places that do special runs will be getting most of my attention now.

It's all about supply and demand.    I've been saying all along that the importers keep pumping way too stuff into an already super-saturated market , and they've been doing it for years.  We hear a common theme that folks already have more trains than they can run and/or display.  So what do the importers do?  They produce even more stuff AND raise prices.  Just look at the raw amount of product in the latest catalogs.

So we all reach our limits rather quickly nowadays.  Folks tend to get excited about newly catalog'd items... which is completely understandable.  But that also creates a pipeline of incoming expenses throughout the year.  I just received a note from Steve at MrMuffins Trains that another order is ready to ship.    This Summer, I'm expecting a few items from 3rd Rail... And then there's December... We all know what happens in December... EVERYTHING arrives at once.  

So in essence, we're all competing with one another (as well as the importers) when we list for-sale ads on the forum.  If you thought supply-and-demand was just theory, think again... It's alive and well right here in our little corner of the world.

David

P.S.  It's not all bad news though... look on the WTB forum... Lots of "regulars" looking for some big-ticket items quite frequently.  

for me i stopped competing i know people who have massive collection like me at one time but no place to run them i bought everything i could but what good is it if you cant run it.  Are there things i want sure we all do but for me its time to give my bank account a rest and enjoy what i have not how much i have and also i made a list of what i have and what i sold and it made me sick i see all this new stuff and think what makes me want to spend the money you cant change the design of the loco it is what it is so whats left sound, control, lights well after a wile the sound gets on my nerves and the smoke i turn it off so whats left lights

my thought here was i see alot of people selling very nice stuff here but most of the time i see make offer price lowered i saw were someone had to beg to sell there empire state set it makes me wonder are we comming to that point were we have spent all we can or is it finally time that people are saying its time to take a break,  And what about the people selling there stuff what is there feeling,  having to take losses on there stuff i know most paid more than they are selling it for,  why do they need to sell i sold many things here and found lately that good stuff is not selling even at great prices much lower than i paid for it.  So it made me think before  i give it away maybe i should rethink why am i selling it so i did and you know what i have is not so bad if i just have fun with it

I slowed down, and materially so.  I decided against pre-ordering anything from the 2016 line-up, mostly predicated on the fact I have so much $$$ tied up in pre-orders from 2015 V2.  In addition, I have honed my collecting to specific pieces as opposed to just buying every "new and hot item."  It has served me well in the past year, in addition to giving my wallet the proverbial "break."

Best,

Michael 

I have been putting the brakes on only because this will be my first York.

I have plenty of trains, and there are tons of more trains out there... .this JDaddy is waiting patiently... wish I had more money!

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

It's all about supply and demand.  

Yup.  I don't have any demand, so supply become irrelevant.....

My house got full. So I expanded my storage space and then it got full. When the mall closed down, we disassembled the club layout and I brought all that home, the place became over-full.

That got my attention.

Just because people have trains they want to sell, doesn't mean there will be a buyer.  Maybe at a lower price there will be, maybe not.  

And then there's always the York Shopping Club twice a year.

i can understand that there are people who want to  buy what i am suprised about is what people are willing to let there stuff go for the amout of loss they take for new or allmost new items and some classics thats the shocking part. Its not the part of supply or demand or keeping up with your friends. And yes there are people with a need to sell in a hurry because of personal or finanical need, i have done that in the past i just see it more and more lately people just willing to take whatever to sell somthing.  Thats scary

look at someone selling a vision line cc2s for 650.00 now thats about 1/2 of what i paid for it used 4 years ago you can see what i am talking about

nope, just bought two sets off ebay.

600 series prewar Lionel passenger set

and

Marx O gauge 6 inch tin passenger set.

Could be wrong but i thing there are people out there who are more interested in the hunt. Once they take possession ,look at it, who and ah over it ,show it off  , run it a few times , and sell it for what ever they can get . taking a loss is not in the equation. They are totally fixated on the next hunt ,which is justified in there mined , i have cash why not ? I know people like that ,every time you go to there house ,inventory has changed. techman

Jim Berger posted:

it dont look like prople can understand what your comments really mean. right prople?

tread is moving on pretty good so i'd say it's u that can't understand 

i was one of the people that could not wait for the next item that only makes you broke and when you need money there is none there.  So i can see were there is differnt points of view on if people have come to the point of rethinking if they can keep up the spending and if you need to sell at all cost for me its just a perspective i have on were we are as a hobby and my hope is that remember what that piece ment to you when you bought it before you sell it for nothing.

Above:

"It's all about supply and demand."  

Not to be rude (never get rudeness here, no sir...), but: duh.

fl9turbo2 posted:

i see alot of people selling new very good and classic trains here only to see them having to  say make offer or reduced price is it me or do i see people holding off on buying is it we are having buying hangover or is it because york is closing in or just we all have had our fill of new stuff now our budgets are busted for me its about time to take a break from buying i have just 1 more thing to get then i think i will take some time to work on my layout and locos that have been on the shelf needed repair

I don't know - there was a major run of items on the bay this past week from train city that the prices were skyrocketing on. I had to bow out - items were going for twice what I was willing to pay.  

Bob Delbridge posted:

I don't know about everyone else but I'm only buying stuff that fits my needs instead of running rampant thru the aisles, buying everything in sight.

Same here Bob - select roads, period, and manufacturers.  I really like Weaver and Atlas - but I won't pay premiums for them.  I was after Weaver Mechanical Reefers over the weekend. Got 1, had to miss out on 7 others that sold for more than they were retail.  Occasionally I'll buy 2-3 items to get the price down on one item I want - then sell what I don't want on here or the bay.

I'm not buying for the next several months as I am focusing my attention to building a layout. I've got more than enough engines and rolling stock to fill the 20' X 40' layout and all the display shelves in the train room and my home office. I expect to see a big shakeup in the MR industry as a whole and expect prices to continue to trend downward over the next decade as more and more collections come to market and the number of buyers as a whole get smaller. In 10-20 years,it's going to be a heckuva buyer's market.

i hope you are right about the trend downward on prices. I hope that everyone enjoys this hobby i have been it it since i was 4yrs old and at 49 i love it now as much as i did when i was a kid but i feel that there is alot of buyer remorse out there,  i hope not so as i step away from the buying i feel there can be somthing to look forward to, when i do get back into it there will be more people loving what they have

I believe there are several factors playing into this. I think that it is just an over-saturated market and people are becoming more selective on what they purchase, focusing on equipment for either certain road names they hold dear, or equipment that that fits their modeling era/style. I did just that to keep my own train budget manageable. There is also the issue of space to store and run it all.  Also, there is the issue of ever increasing prices. My local shop has made the observation that people's budgets have not kept pace with the increase in prices. People are still buying product, just not as many items as they once could. They said it is very obvious when it comes to locomotive power that they sell. 

FL9TURBO2,

    Actually I have always been very picky about adding to my Christmas layout, however when I see something I want at a good price, I do not hesitate to pick it up.  I just purchased a JLC Brunswick Green GG1 from David (Rocky Mountaineer) here on the OGR, it's on it's way right now via Fedex, needed another big TMCC GG1 to pull the numerous Military WWII Commemorative Box Cars & rolling stock, I picked up from Menard's.  I also picked up an early 80's K-Line Cocoa Train in perfect shape at an antique store, and made a deal on another KW Transformer, along with purchasing a beautiful Tin Plate Islay's Sky Scraper Box Car.   With me all it depends on what I want quality wise, and the money I need to expend, when adding to Christmas layout.   I always look for great deals on the items I want most.  So I really have not slowed down, just become even more discriminating cost wise.  I am definitely shopping around a great deal more than I use to.  

PCRR/Dave

I'm just starting to get back into collecting after a very long hiatus, an 18 year hiatus to be exact, but I am very proud of my one prize possession that I will be sending off to college this year that put me on that 18 year hiatus. I do agree with most of the comments, while I would love to have it all, I have nowhere to store it all or display it all. So I am  collecting certain road names, just Conrail for now, no wait, Conrail and the NYC, no let me revise that, Conrail, NYC and PC, uhmm wait, I mean CR, NYC,PC, CSX, yeah that's it, hold it, CR,NYC,PC,CSX, NS, now that's it! Then there are all the merger partner railroads for the ones I mentioned, Hmmmm. . .

I stopped buying approximately 10 years ago and haven't looked back.  I bought plenty at the time and only focused on one major railroad (C&O).  Of course I have a few non C&O engines, but they fall into what I call the classics namely, NYC 700e, UP Big Boy and a Pennsylvania GG1.   Over the last ten years I've only purchased used equipment such as signals, lights, couple of buildings etc that would be standard on any railroad.   

The reason I stopped was that I realized that it was futile for me to try and buy what I liked and not be in the poor house.  The advancement of the engine command technology also spurred me to halt purchases in this arena because it would be outdated before you had a chance to take it out of the box.    The major manufactures didn't work with one another to come up with a common operating system and there was no way I was about try and manage three to four different operating systems & upgrades without becoming overly frustrated with trying to keep each of those systems operable.

I honestly believe just as ROCKY MOUNTAINEER that we've reached a saturation point several years back.  Now we are seeing folks who for whatever reason need to sell their trains as significant losses due to a glut in the used train market. 

I am not exactly standing here with a "fistful of dollars", but I have bought little, because nothing is interesting....it is still, again, too much deja' vu.   So I buy and build structures, and do kitbashes, and hunt for old stuff.  And wait...for dawn to break, for the sun to come up, for something new....that has not been done before, and before that, and before......

For me personally, it's about the specific items.  

The price of items plays a big part in it. I just got my 3rd loco a few weeks ago, and for at least the next year, won't purchase another one. I don't have a lot of rolling stock either, about 15 cars in all.  

I just started building my layout this winter, and am trying to focus on that. I agree that the price of a building does seem a bit high, 139$ built vs. 35$ in kit form?  50-60$ per switch adds up, and I'm using realtrax, I can't afford Ross or Atlas. 

I'm 38, with two kids, so I don't have a big "train budget". I really have to pick and choose what it is I want to spend money on. I could spend 65$ for my son to play a season of baseball, or buy 1 piece of rolling stock. I also have about 40 years ahead of me to get my layout finished.

One thing that helps me in this area is the "era" of most of the items. I grew up with "modern" railroads. I've ridden Durango-Silverton, and Cumberland Toltec, but steam doesn't really interest me. I want to model what I currently see, or remember as a kid. 

Just my $0.02. 

Mo985 posted:

For me personally, it's about the specific items.  

The price of items plays a big part in it. I just got my 3rd loco a few weeks ago, and for at least the next year, won't purchase another one. I don't have a lot of rolling stock either, about 15 cars in all.  

I just started building my layout this winter, and am trying to focus on that. I agree that the price of a building does seem a bit high, 139$ built vs. 35$ in kit form?  50-60$ per switch adds up, and I'm using realtrax, I can't afford Ross or Atlas. 

I'm 38, with two kids, so I don't have a big "train budget". I really have to pick and choose what it is I want to spend money on. I could spend 65$ for my son to play a season of baseball, or buy 1 piece of rolling stock. I also have about 40 years ahead of me to get my layout finished.

One thing that helps me in this area is the "era" of most of the items. I grew up with "modern" railroads. I've ridden Durango-Silverton, and Cumberland Toltec, but steam doesn't really interest me. I want to model what I currently see, or remember as a kid. 

Just my $0.02. 

I second that - where these guys get the money for 30+ switches blows my mind.  I've lived in Durango, ridden the Cumbers, but I like late 60s operations - and am on a very tight budget. Retail ain't happening. I've got more buildings than rolling stock.  I only buy when the price is really good. 

Bob Delbridge posted:

I don't know about everyone else but I'm only buying stuff that fits my needs instead of running rampant thru the aisles, buying everything in sight.

Rolling stock - looking for certain RRs and types and mainly Atlas or Weaver.

Engines - mainly steam, mainly 4-8-2, mainly one that is close to what Seaboard Air Line had.  the only other engine I desire is a GP7, having recently got a great deal on an Atlas F3A.

Buildings - must fit the industry in question and a spot on my layout.  IMO prices for custom buildings are thru the roof, worse than rolling stock.  $90+ for a 6"x7" plain structure (that you have to build and paint) is just too much.

Recently went to a Greenberg show, probably my last one.  Nothing but the same over-priced old trains and junk.

On the bright side...I did find a couple of Atlas cars at Petersen Supply Company that I wanted.  Paid a lot for them but they were what I was looking for and nobody else had them.  These places that do special runs will be getting most of my attention now.

I have 4 of the mountain type steamers and a mike for seaboard.Its funny when I was in ho.I did not like the mountain type.But when I turned to o gauge.They started to look pretty good to me.I had no idea just how poplar they where.Seems like every railroad had them.Seaboard have two flavors coal or oil and they did both passenger and freight.Before they were sent away.Last year I had 2 repaired by ggg. He did a very good job.How ever I am thinking of getting another mountain type.Also for the last while I been buying used boxcars.Its been pretty good so far.

I only buy CSS & SB, the choices are limited (I have everything that has been made) so unless the come out with something new.  Hoping 3rd Rail will get

enough orders for the 700 electric, then I am a buyer.  I think people have realized the common sense approach of limited themselves to certain roads, I have and it has saved me from buying things that I will just end up selling. 

Yep, holding off. I'm waiting on the next local train show!  

From my own experiences trying to sell, and from looking through the For Sale forum, it definitely looks like used stuff is harder to sell lately.  Of course it likely depends on what you have, but I see a lot of stuff going through quite a few price reductions before it moves- if it moves at all. Some things sit on eBay forever, despite being reasonably priced.

As stated earlier in the thread, I think the market is reaching, or has reached, a saturation point.  There are only so many buyers for so much product...

I have always thought that the volume of stuff we buy and prices that many of us are willing to pay have always been supported by the idea that we can always turn around and sell our stuff for close to what we paid for it, or even turn a profit.
If those days ever really existed, I think they are largely gone now.
So the soft resale market is making people reluctant to buy.

Plus as was mentioned recently on this board, the cost of shipping is killing what individuals can get for their stuff in private exchanges.

From what I see, the prices on many items are lower than they were just a couple of years ago (the items I purchased), but the items I still want are just as high as they ever were.

Yes. My focus is N&W and with very few exceptions, I already have what I want. The remainder of my "wish-list" hasn't been produced, yet.

I  have not, however, taken a break from correct punctuation.

I have become very selective in what I buy, looking only for items that fit my specific time frame and roads. Right now that list is very short and the items are hard to find, resulting in me buying very little lately. Even with this limited focus I still have more than I can use, “use” being the operative word as I finalize my completely new layout design. Yes, for those that know me this is yet another design. This design no longer tries to put all my trains on the layout (sidings and staging yard), and now focuses on other aspects I want.

As a result, there are many cars and some engines that I will probably never use and I see no reason to keep. I do not need a wall full of trains to impress people, so I am looking at ways to get rid of them.  I have found, like others above, that people are only buying if you are basically giving away your trains, even if new in the box. I personally believe the older generation that has the funds are no longer buying because they have all they need like me, and the younger folks don’t have the funds (average real income at an all-time low), low job security, or don’t own a home for a layout (living in parents basement or apartment). For people to buy in this economy, it must be a real bargain.

I don’t need the money, but I don’t feel like selling my trains for pennies on the dollar either. While I plan to sell a few of the NIB stuff, most are going to be giving away to people/organizations I know.  So basically I’m not buying and I’m not selling, a position I think others also have.

I wish I could be more optimistic about the future of the hobby, but I'm too realistic for my own good. While I think there will be people playing with trains in coming generations, I suspect that the numbers will be less than there are now.

i am not happy with what I see at train shows. While I think we live in a golden age of plenty as far as locomotives, track,rolling stock,electronics,  and structures go, I am worried by the lack of young people in our hobby. The lack isn't just due to competing interests, but also to the micro-economic concerns you listed earlier. Our hobby is not cheap, and debt-ridden young families can't afford to buy as many trains as we could back in the day.

i wish I had long-term solutions, but I don't. I personally expect to take a bath when it comes time to sell my trains. I suppose I could recoup more of my investment if I only bought new and popular, but never took them out of the boxes, but I see myself as a runner, not a collector. 

At this point, I am in Ron's position.  I have been through the "spend with both hands" phase, sold-off much of what didn't fit the prototype and era, and have been selectively acquiring and selling pieces since.  Years ago, I came up with mental guidelines for my acquisitions and have mostly stuck with them.  I am not a true collector, and I don't display excess inventory.  I try to keep my inventory down to the point where I can run it on the layout, but I'm not there yet.  My locomotive fleet is close to that goal, but the rolling stock is nowhere near the target.  Based on my inventory, I have 10-15 trains made up (on paper) that can run on the Panhandle, but there is no way that could happen simultaneously.  At best, the layout can probably accommodate 2 mainline trains and 2 switching operations at the same time.

Ron has hit the nail on the head regarding the current economics in play. 

George

MONON JIM,

   I am not a road name guy myself, however if that is what it takes to control ones spending on our hobby purchases, so be it.  I do tend to purchase PRR Engines and Rolling Stock when looking at more modern trains, however with my Tin Plate my purchases cover a very broad spectrum, in many different sizes.  I also purchase many good Transformers when I can get them at reasonable prices.  Many are gifted away with my Veterans Christmas Train program, for the service connected children however.  On my own Christmas layouts I am always over powered, to the point where others have actually commented on it.  However I have become a lot more discriminating, in my money out lay, especially when purchasing new, in my estimation some of the prices have become way out of line.  My toy trains are a Family Christmas Tradition, I am not a collector.

PCRR/Dave

I haven't been in the hobby very long, but I have only bought a couple of rolling stock pieces new.  The prices on new are crazy and the bargains on used plentiful.  There are times where I have been burned on used (original trucks switched out for sub-standard), but by and large I've been very pleased with what I've been able to pick up used.  Most folks really take care of their stuff and the items come in very good shape.  I am committed to Wisconsin-seen road names, principally Soo Line, so that helps limit the buying.  But I am usually always buying something.  Once you start, it's hard to stop!

Limited budget really controls what I buy.  While I like 2 specific railroads, I am not limited to them.   My purchasing is soley based on what appeals to my eye and to my budget.  If it looks cool to me and the price is right then I will but it.

My main focus right now is to finish my layout so I can enjoy the trains I have.

Ed