Many have commented, on this thread, about reaching the saturation point; sooner or later, you realize that you're JUST throwing away good money. Fulfillment... won't come with the next purchase; regardless of the price.
Humans seem to have an innate unquenchable need for... ever more!
Rick
As I revisit this thread, it suddenly came to me that my saturation point comes when I find myself buying things I don't really need, but would be nice to have as a novelty. I've done this in both O and G scales. These items wind up as shelf ornaments, rarely touching a rail.
Sooner or later I sell the item or items. And guess what, I miss them not.
The new Super 381 full set is upwards of $3,500.00, but if there are less than 50 or so made, I think it really becomes something truly collectible.
What does "collectable" mean anyway?
If a person is interested in a certain group of items, or even one item, then it is collectable to that person. Over the years, I've collected many things that were of interest to a very small group of folks, perhaps in some cases I could have been the only person. In some cases the popularity of those things eventually caught on, in other cases, not so much.
Years ago, Louis Hertz wrote about the concept of limited market.
Basically, in order for an item to maintain it's "value" there has to be people who are willing to pay.
If the manufacturer of that Super 381 set thought there was demand at the release price for significantly more than 50 pieces, they would have made them.
When someone decides to sell their set, that is when the current value will be determined.
Maybe someone who missed out will be willing to pay $5,000. Or maybe the most an interested party will be willing to pay will be less than $3,500.
(Once the people who are willing to pay $3,500 have theirs, the value drops to whatever the next person is willing to pay).
The Toy Collector by Louis Hertz is an old book now. But I think it's well worth reading. Copies can be had for under $20.
As for me, I never have considered my trains to be an investment, and am not overly concerned about resale value.
GREENRAIL posted:Basil posted:I understand Lionchief. It is about entry point. I want to pick up a Lionchief set for my 4 year old. Right now, I only have conventional operation. I want to move to DCS, I've bought two locomotives DCS capable, but even if I have that on my system, a Lionchief remote fits perfectly in a little hand and is super simple to operate for my son. When he had the opportunity to run one at the LHS, he was happy as a pig in slop.
Don't get me wrong. I get the whole entry level thing. I think its a great way to attract the younger generation into the hobby. I just wish, Lionel would have given more thought to it and used existing technology architecture, i.e. a simplified TMCC compatible remote, similar to what MTH offers in heir entry level train sets.
It is a block for me as far as ever considering LC/LC+ for my layout. I will stick with TMCC/LEGACY and DCS. I am what I am.
Either way, I hope your children catch the bug. It's what kind of drove my life's choices over the years. I ended up a professional Railroader for over 36 years, thanks to my Original Marx and Lionel Train sets when I was young.
I think Legacy / DCS are on the downturn. The Command Control technology is ancient by tech standards. TMCC was released in 1994. Most people didnt have cell phones when this tech was developed - let alone the hand held computers we have today. Meanwhile, Legacy is a ten year old band-aid. It's understandable why its lasted so long (compatibility) but at some point, you gotta come up with something that is more adaptable.
The concern here is one of hardware vs. software. The cost of outdated hardware is ever increasing - Its neutralizing the market - you're not going to find many new buyers willing to drop $1800 on an engine, $800 on a transformer, $300 on a command system, $1000(s) on track and switches, $60-100 on each piece of rolling stock, and $60-150 on buildings. Instead, they are just going to do HO or buy another PlayStation. Newer hardware is usually cheaper - especially when it has larger scale applications - and software is upgradeable and at much lower cost. Goodbye Blockbuster, Hello Netflix.
While I appreciate historical sentiment and decades of consistency (and efforts at compatibility), command control and track power have had their day. I appreciate that some will continue using these as long as they can stretch them out - that is fine. Plenty of conventional operators out there 22 years after the release of TMCC. However, the cost to benefit ratio for new entrants is too steep and its shrinking the market. Lionel's Lionchief system and their introduction of bluetooth for legacy are both proof that they recognize that command control has a short shelf life - offering new entrants RC tech and experienced Legacy users with Bluetooth is just one step in the shift. MTH and 3rd rail both released similar Bluetooth systems in 2015. As Bachman works with Bluerail trains, we can anticipate bluetooth to move from command control to direct control in the coming year. It's only a matter of time before all manufacturers are pushing battery-powered Bluetooth as the "new" command control - and the prices - I suspect they will fall.
Jacobpaul81 posted"...we can anticipate bluetooth to move from command control to direct control in the coming year..."
What's the difference between Command control and Direct Control? I haven't heard of Direct control before.
The original question was,
Are prople holding off buying trains?
Just show up at YORK April 14-16th and see for yourself.
laz1957 posted:The original question was,
Are prople holding off buying trains?
Just show up at YORK April 14-16th and see for yourself.
The people who show up at York are hard core and attend mostly for the express purpose of buying trains. It's probable that they are in the minority of O-gauge enthusiasts. It would be interesting to know the ratio of TCA members to the total number of O-gauge hobbyists. Of course York will be a buying frenzy, that's what it's made for.
Pete
Ed Walsh posted:I understand the ever present angst over high prices, value, etc.
As has already been said, value is totally different to each buyer. If you have the money and like the item then that is great that you can get it.
I am confident though that in the long long run, the market will make the necessary adjustments to price vs. value. Eventually the glossy catalogues and marketing tricks will go stale and the market will adjust the prices.
If in doubt about the market controlling things, take notice of the big success of Menard's in just a very short time. Great product, price and service from day 1. Obviously they are not anywhere near a Lionel or MTH, right now. But also remember Mike Wolfe started with next to nothing as did Jerry Williams. I am definitely enjoying seeing a brand new company filling in the void for truly affordable trains.
Ed
you are so right about Menard's i bought some things for them when woodland senics was doing there buildings and look at them now, my hope is that maybe the others will look at them and say see what we could sell if we just listen to our customer's
I'm curious,,,,,,, are these "PROPLE" folks related to the "Elbonions", or maybe the "Klingons"?
I have been a TCA member is 1999 and for the past 6 years i have volunteer for the show. I have spoke to dealers and they say the same thing people are just not buying. I know i get people that say they are having a great show, But i feel its the buying public that has come to the point that they dont have to have everything righ now, Look at menards they are doing great they realize that its about the value, the customer will come you can see it here when they do there preview how many people cant wait for the next big thing because they see like i do that it does not have to come in a purple or orange box to be a great piece and it does not have to cost a arm and a leg to purchase
Phoebe Snow Route posted:Jacobpaul81 posted"...we can anticipate bluetooth to move from command control to direct control in the coming year..."
What's the difference between Command control and Direct Control? I haven't heard of Direct control before.
Pretty simple concept:
In command:
Remote -> Command System -> Locomotive
Direct:
Control Device (remote, phone, tablet) -> Locomotive
Jacobpaul81 posted:... Instead, they are just going to do HO or buy another PlayStation.GREENRAIL posted:Basil posted:I understand Lionchief. It is about entry point. I want to pick up a Lionchief set for my 4 year old. Right now, I only have conventional operation. I want to move to DCS, I've bought two locomotives DCS capable, but even if I have that on my system, a Lionchief remote fits perfectly in a little hand and is super simple to operate for my son. When he had the opportunity to run one at the LHS, he was happy as a pig in slop.
Don't get me wrong. I get the whole entry level thing. I think its a great way to attract the younger generation into the hobby. I just wish, Lionel would have given more thought to it and used existing technology architecture, i.e. a simplified TMCC compatible remote, similar to what MTH offers in heir entry level train sets.
It is a block for me as far as ever considering LC/LC+ for my layout. I will stick with TMCC/LEGACY and DCS. I am what I am.
Either way, I hope your children catch the bug. It's what kind of drove my life's choices over the years. I ended up a professional Railroader for over 36 years, thanks to my Original Marx and Lionel Train sets when I was young.
... It's only a matter of time before all manufacturers are pushing battery-powered Bluetooth as the "new" command control - and the prices - I suspect they will fall.
Interesting argument... but do you really think this audience is gonna abandon O-Gauge and go to HO just because of cost? 
I suggest that ain't gonna happen -- at least not en masse... and most likely would have already happened.
Secondly, do you really think TMCC/Legacy/DCS are responsible for the high cost of today's O-Gauge trains? Really??? What is the compelling "silver bullet" element of a Bluetooth control system that's gonna reduce prices significantly?
Going forward, importers must maintain compatibility of some sort to existing trains that folks have purchased. That was the beauty of the "band aid" Legacy system following TMCC. And PS3 was an uneventful upgrade from PS2, which DCS makes all quite seamless.
I already don't give Lionchief/Lionelchief+ a second glance. Anything else that the importers introduce that doesn't maintain compatibility with the HUGE inventory of trains folks already own would be DOA. It's tough to escape the sobering fact that the critical mass of folks who live-and-breathe this hobby are 50+. Nobody in that age bracket wants to start all over again with a new control system -- no matter how glamorous it may look -- if it's gonna obsolete everything they already own.
And besides... DCS and Legacy are doing just fine with some of the recent WiFi and LCS enhancements, respectively. 
Don't confuse the high-cost of today's trains with Legacy or DCS control systems. O-Gauge Trains are priced where they are, because the importers feel that's what the marketplace will bear. They will continue to push the envelope higher, and consumers will push back as appropriate. Somewhere in between, there should be a happy medium. I've already told the importers that if they honestly feel they need to price steam locomotives at $1,400 (street-price) for non-articulated models and $1,800+ for articulated models to make it worth their while, then forget it... I'm not interested. In my eyes, they might as well not even make them if they expect enthusiasts to shell out those dollars all the time. I'll be more than content to run my MTH Erie Triplex with PS2 that I purchased quite some time ago, rather than blow another $1,800+ on a Lionel Allegheney just because it has whistle-steam. 
When enough people feel that way, the importers will get the message real quick. 
David
As for LC and LC+ the jury is out on if it will take off its a young platform and lionel had to shake things up on there starter sets. i would have been nice for people to be able to to trasistion to legacy even if you could have a module to add the LC/LC+ features to the legacy remote.
Jacobpaul81 posted:GREENRAIL posted:Basil posted:I understand Lionchief. It is about entry point. I want to pick up a Lionchief set for my 4 year old. Right now, I only have conventional operation. I want to move to DCS, I've bought two locomotives DCS capable, but even if I have that on my system, a Lionchief remote fits perfectly in a little hand and is super simple to operate for my son. When he had the opportunity to run one at the LHS, he was happy as a pig in slop.
Don't get me wrong. I get the whole entry level thing. I think its a great way to attract the younger generation into the hobby. I just wish, Lionel would have given more thought to it and used existing technology architecture, i.e. a simplified TMCC compatible remote, similar to what MTH offers in heir entry level train sets.
It is a block for me as far as ever considering LC/LC+ for my layout. I will stick with TMCC/LEGACY and DCS. I am what I am.
Either way, I hope your children catch the bug. It's what kind of drove my life's choices over the years. I ended up a professional Railroader for over 36 years, thanks to my Original Marx and Lionel Train sets when I was young.
I think Legacy / DCS are on the downturn. The Command Control technology is ancient by tech standards. TMCC was released in 1994. Most people didnt have cell phones when this tech was developed - let alone the hand held computers we have today. Meanwhile, Legacy is a ten year old band-aid. It's understandable why its lasted so long (compatibility) but at some point, you gotta come up with something that is more adaptable.
The concern here is one of hardware vs. software. The cost of outdated hardware is ever increasing - Its neutralizing the market - you're not going to find many new buyers willing to drop $1800 on an engine, $800 on a transformer, $300 on a command system, $1000(s) on track and switches, $60-100 on each piece of rolling stock, and $60-150 on buildings. Instead, they are just going to do HO or buy another PlayStation. Newer hardware is usually cheaper - especially when it has larger scale applications - and software is upgradeable and at much lower cost. Goodbye Blockbuster, Hello Netflix.
While I appreciate historical sentiment and decades of consistency (and efforts at compatibility), command control and track power have had their day. I appreciate that some will continue using these as long as they can stretch them out - that is fine. Plenty of conventional operators out there 22 years after the release of TMCC. However, the cost to benefit ratio for new entrants is too steep and its shrinking the market. Lionel's Lionchief system and their introduction of bluetooth for legacy are both proof that they recognize that command control has a short shelf life - offering new entrants RC tech and experienced Legacy users with Bluetooth is just one step in the shift. MTH and 3rd rail both released similar Bluetooth systems in 2015. As Bachman works with Bluerail trains, we can anticipate bluetooth to move from command control to direct control in the coming year. It's only a matter of time before all manufacturers are pushing battery-powered Bluetooth as the "new" command control - and the prices - I suspect they will fall.
Maybe Tech standards are too aggressive a measuring stick by which to compare here. Legacy hasn't been around but for what 10-12 years? Maybe to MS and Apple, that's too long. But, in the Model Railroad hobby, I don't believe it is. In a similar vein, many people like me enjoy some stability in the current flow of Legacy/TMCC and DCS. In both systems, the Suppliers have been able to implement incremental software upgrades to their respective products.
As such, to me at least, the hardware isn't outdated. It is progressively getting better over time due to those improvements mentioned above. There is a lot to be said about long term compatibility.
I don't think many of us would go over to HO as an example. Have you looked at the prices of DCC Equipped locomotives? They are getting darn close to what the O Gauge Manufacturers are selling. and there is an example of an operating system architecture that has been around since, what, the mid to early '90's.
Either way, more fragmentation of he market by introduction of tangentially developed operating systems, leads away from upward growth from the newer hobbyists. I paly with my trains because they get me away from the Computer, Tech Gadget, etc. There is where I get disappointed by he I-Phone. I-pad, App driven diversion.
Regardless, my take is that upward growth through compatibility is a trend to pursue. I know this is a bad analogy, but, it's kind of like a gateway drug.
With too many limited BTO offerings at extremely high prices, it will slowly, kill off many hobbyist's interests.
I for one will never pay $2,000+ for a toy. I can justify $500.00, but not much more than that and that's a stretch.
Heck these are toys. When they take away from my family's necessities, then I am done.
I'm not holding off, but I am pacing myself. Lionel stuff is too expensive for me in any case. MTH RK suits my tastes and my wallet just fine.
The only model train items I have bought in the last 12 months is some model trees and buildings. ZERO locomotives or cars.....too costly and I have enough.
In my opinion, Lionchief and Lionchief Plus are a good idea. It could be that technology has evolved so that the more expensive DCC products are being replaced by simpler, easier to use right out of the box and less expensive models.
I don't want to get into a discussion of who thinks what is better. But perhaps the powers at Lionel see a whole new market with LC and LC+.
To answer the question.. Yep I'm still buying trains etc..I'm 50 years young so whatever tickles my fancy.
Do I spend alot, I guess it depends on what one thinks is a lot, it's all relative.
If I see a deal that I just cannot pass up. Maybe the newer Lionel SD40's, and or I really like the new Atlas CZ bundled passenger cars but I really do not need 12 of them.
And.. Keep the wife happy = happy wife = happy life.
And I figure life is short and I can't take all this stuff with me... So Enjoy it..
Actually have not purchased much in the last year either ...
In my case the Canadian dollar has tanked so everything went up 40%. When the dollar first went down I started buying new old stock (the Aerotrain from 2004 for example) but as things got worst I stopped altogether. I have reached the point where I have enough and have turned my interests elsewhere.
However, I'm off to a train show this morning with a buddy of mine so you never know. Last year we went I bought nothing but ended up selling him my MTH Santa-fee passenger starter set.
So far (I'll be 65 this year 
) I've converted 8 steamers from PS2 to BPRC (since last May) with 2 more to go. I also have 8 diesels that I'm thinking about converting. I wasn't going to (and leave them as PS2 or TMCC) but the other day when I ran a recently acquired Atlas F3 with TMCC it brought back all the reminders of why I made the change. Sparking wheels, cleaning track, wiring, intermittent signals, sounds that were unnecessary, too many buttons to push or remember which ones did what. I know I'm in the minority with BPRC, but the numbers are growing and folks seem enthusiastic about it, at least on the other forums.
I've always said the makers need to offer engines that any system can be plugged into to run. There's no reason (except because they don't want to) an engine can't be made with a universal plug and wiring so that motor, lights, smoke, and sound from anybody's electronics can't be plugged into it. Make the plug pin assignment standard (1-2 motor, 3-4 smoke, 5-6 headlight, etc). This way the buyer could choose (what a concept!) which system he wants from none (why have a control system if all you want to do is place it on a shelf to view?) to simple F/N/R, DCS, TMCC, BPRC, DCC, Bluetooth, or one of the other handheld operating systems that are currently available.
I believe this would increase sales. I've seen locos I would like to have, but didn't want the electronics that was in them. An engine without the electronics package (just the basics: motor, lights, universal plug) would/should be (initially) less expensive I would think. Once the buyer decided which system he wanted, all that would have to be done is to open up the engine or tender and plug in the package.
I've never been a brand loyalist or did something to keep tradition alive, I like to have choices based on what I want, not what someone wants to sell me.
The only engines I have bought when they were announced were a GGD E7 and a dummy Atlas GP9, all others had been out for years (RailKing NW2 and 0-6-0 with PS2 for example) or older Williams brass with basic F/N/R. I'd rather spend the $$$ up front on a well detailed engine, and later spend the $$$ to get the system I wanted.
fl9turbo2 posted:I have been a TCA member is 1999 and for the past 6 years i have volunteer for the show. I have spoke to dealers and they say the same thing people are just not buying. I know i get people that say they are having a great show, But i feel its the buying public that has come to the point that they dont have to have everything righ now, Look at menards they are doing great they realize that its about the value, the customer will come you can see it here when they do there preview how many people cant wait for the next big thing because they see like i do that it does not have to come in a purple or orange box to be a great piece and it does not have to cost a arm and a leg to purchase
Great point about Menards. I have bought some of there buildings and they are great. The power and light is an absolutely insane value. It is so nice. The only new engine I bought in the past year and a half was an impulse purchase from mth. Their wireless tether is very difficult to connect on a large steam engine. I won't even buy any of those on the secondary market no matter how good a deal I got. John
Bob Delbridge posted:
I've always said the makers need to offer engines that any system can be plugged into to run. There's no reason (except because they don't want to) an engine can't be made with a universal plug and wiring so that motor, lights, smoke, and sound from anybody's electronics can't be plugged into it. Make the plug pin assignment standard (1-2 motor, 3-4 smoke, 5-6 headlight, etc). This way the buyer could choose (what a concept!) which system he wants from none (why have a control system if all you want to do is place it on a shelf to view?) to simple F/N/R, DCS, TMCC, BPRC, DCC, Bluetooth, or one of the other handheld operating systems that are currently available.
Hi Bob,
What your describing; DCC, DC, BATTERY and ease of plug and play etc. and even radio control for live steam locos is currently available in G scale. Take a quick look at "Garden Railways magazine" all you see for many of the adds are power options for locomotives.
Bob Delbridge posted:There's no reason (except because they don't want to) an engine can't be made with a universal plug and wiring so that motor, lights, smoke, and sound from anybody's electronics can't be plugged into it. Make the plug pin assignment standard (1-2 motor, 3-4 smoke, 5-6 headlight, etc). This way the buyer could choose (what a concept!) which system he wants from none (why have a control system if all you want to do is place it on a shelf to view?) to simple F/N/R, DCS, TMCC, BPRC, DCC, Bluetooth, or one of the other handheld operating systems that are currently available.
I believe this would increase sales.
I've never been a brand loyalist or did something to keep tradition alive, I like to have choices based on what I want, not what someone wants to sell me.
I'm 100% in Bob's Camp. 
fl9turbo2 posted:i can understand that there are people who want to buy what i am suprised about is what people are willing to let there stuff go for the amout of loss they take for new or allmost new items and some classics thats the shocking part. Its not the part of supply or demand or keeping up with your friends. And yes there are people with a need to sell in a hurry because of personal or finanical need, i have done that in the past i just see it more and more lately people just willing to take whatever to sell somthing. Thats scary
Friend,
I have been selling off stuff at cheap prices. It does no good just sitting in one of our closets. Sell older items from some years ago that I do not use. The money helps pay the cost of new stuff i buy and makes my wife happy I am selling items off. This maybe my last year of going over $3K as I am now retired.
I am getting a fleet of LV 2 bay PW hoppers. Then putting coal loads in them. $10-20 vs the $60 for the new GLa hoppers. Should look great being "dragged" by my Williams Baldwins!
The new stuff, outside of Menard's, is out of line pricewise, so I am going with some $10-15 cars from the used section with out boxes from train shows and stores!
A couple of posters have mentioned that HO-gauge prices are almost as expensive as O-gauge prices. I was at three different train stores this weekend and curiosity got the best of me. I looked at all of their HO/O products. It seems their DCC trains were almost as expensive as the RailKing DCS trains. However; the prices of track, accessories and scenery weren't even close. HO was almost half the price. I only looked at three stores but there was definitely a difference. Maybe I'll build an HO layout after my O layout is complete!
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