Brass losing value

I would advise only buying the trains you really want to keep.  Things are only worth what people are willing to pay for them.  Most of the trains I have purchased over the years are only worth  fraction of what I paid for them,  but I bought them to run, not as an investment.  Sad,  but true.

I don't think it is sad.  It is certainly true.

The current lower prices, coupled with inflation, mean that more modelers of modest means can enjoy reasonably accurate models.

Certain MG and USH models have declined from highs in the $4000 range to just over $1200.  Note that one can now get the more common USH locomotives for just over $500.

Overland has taken a hit because so many of them were poorly assembled, with mechanisms that were designed for a mantel display.  I understand they fixed that.  I do not know what the date of the fix was.  Some of their Diesel models had inaccuracies - I have a trio of PAs with slightly inaccurate windshield openings.

Hobbies and investments are rarely compatible.  Hobbies are for fun.

All opinion.

Sounds like population aging is affecting scale as well as tinplate market....or maybe those four figure prices have affected both and scared new hobbyists off...

With Brass HO, there is a allot of secondary work required to bring it up today's technology... DCC, DCS, etc.

I believe Brass O has the same issues.

So many new products coming out that are now scale, so unless you are modeling something very elusive, the brass market is pretty soft.

Most all of my HO brass purchased new 40 years ago have yet to come up the price I paid for them. All of my second hand O scale brass  have been bought for a third or their original list price. This is not a new phenomenon. 

Pete

Brass is taking a huge hit right now. I just took a bath on my Overland GP30. Paid $750 last year and just sold for $530 minus PayPal and Ebay fees.  Ouch! A good friend of my is sitting on a good amount of S scale brass that he is having trouble getting more than 50% of what he paid. HO brass is even worse because modern plastic from companies like Rapido, Athearn, Scale Trains, etc... is so good. Fewer and fewer people are interested in painting and lighting. Not to mention that most people I know prefer DCC/Sound to come pre-installed. Add in the aging target audience and you see how we are where we are I guess.

I find it amazing how any brass company today can sell their new models when people realize what will happen to their non investment.   Yes, I guess, I will be running these models, if they do run,  in the future and get enjoyment out of them.   I won't consider selling them and the sons can when I pass.   But looking and see a bid on one Santa Fe SD40-2 at $1100+.  There is hope

jonnyspeed posted:

Brass is taking a huge hit right now. I just took a bath on my Overland GP30. Paid $750 last year and just sold for $530 minus PayPal and Ebay fees.  Ouch! A good friend of my is sitting on a good amount of S scale brass that he is having trouble getting more than 50% of what he paid. HO brass is even worse because modern plastic from companies like Rapido, Athearn, Scale Trains, etc... is so good. Fewer and fewer people are interested in painting and lighting. Not to mention that most people I know prefer DCC/Sound to come pre-installed. Add in the aging target audience and you see how we are where we are I guess.

I think you nailed it right on the head with this post.

Brass used to be the only factory-made way you could get:

• Correct details for the prototype
• Good can motors (in some cases)
• A model that held its value, unlike anything made form plastic

Those days are, thankfully, gone. For example, my Bachmann ten-wheelers have as much detail out of the box as a lot of brass used to come with. And already painted, too. You only have to look in a good hobby shop to see the amazing detail that is available for RTR HO and other scales now. Heck, some lot of it comes pre-weathered now! I saw a N scale set recently that has brass-quality details, painted, and weathered (two cars even had graphiti on them). Right out of the box it was ready for a photo shoot in one of the hobby magazines!

Some (if not many) people who buy/bought brass often were the types who liked collecting and wanted to know they had the most expensive stuff out there. Every hobby has these folks. The problem was, they often didn't run all that well. The magazines were filled with stories on how to re-engine brass locomotives so they'd run as good as they looked.

A good friend of mine in Florida collected brass for over 20 years and recently realized he'll never be able to sell it for what he has in it. His HO 'layout' is mostly a parking lot for a massive brass collection now. I doubt many of his locomotives ran all that well. Now, he's discovered the joys of O scale and will probably look to rebuild part of his massive (and for many years, totally dormant) layout into our favorite scale. But I can't imagine how little he'll get for his HO brass if/when he decides to sell.

I went to Whistle Stop trains in Portland a while back and looked in their brass case for the heck of it (it's all just HO, nothing I'd actually buy, due to the scale) and saw stuff for sale for less than what people paid back in the 80s, and that's not even adjusting for inflation! In other words, it's taking a massive hit in value when you consider what 70s-80s money would be worth today.

phill posted:

I find it amazing how any brass company today can sell their new models when people realize what will happen to their non investment.  

But, that's the whole point.  I don't buy brass as an investment.  I buy brass because it is of a prototype I like and want.  As many have said before me, trains are not investments.

Norton posted:

Most all of my HO brass purchased new 40 years ago have yet to come up the price I paid for them.

HO brass prices of 40 years ago, adjusted for 40 years of inflation, are not a pleasant reminder of your 'investment'....considering their current secondary market sales prices.

According to the C.O.L. calculator, a $100 price in 1976 would rise to $425 in 2016. 

I believe an HO PFM Santa Fe 2-8-0 (ubiquitous, I know) was my first brass acquisition about 50 years ago.  Even though it has basically languished in its box since then and could probably come close to the equally ubiquitous 'mint' rating, the thought of getting 4.25 times the original price is laughable....if not totally depressing.  Ain't gonna happen, not ever, zip, nada!

I'm with Bob2's pithy comment...

"Hobbies and investments are rarely compatible.  Hobbies are for fun."

...and that's the way it was for me 50 years ago....and still is.  

There's enough else in this world to be depressed about....but not my hobby purchases!

Also just an opinion.

KD

Slight qualification needed... 

Some brass may be losing value but quality brass is not..

ecd15 posted:

But, that's the whole point.  I don't buy brass as an investment.  I buy brass because it is of a prototype I like and want.  As many have said before me, trains are not investments.

True, but we all know people who bought them for an investment anyway, not realizing that the hobby was gonna have to morph in the future.

I recently talked with a visitor to my layout and he was totally blown away when I explained how few (4 total) locomotives I bought. I explained that part of it is the discipline of not buying excess stuff, another part is modeling a RR that had few locos and no interchange and yet another was only wanting stuff I could justify running on my layout at all (for example, I will never buy a D&GRW K-36, even though I love how they look). He was one of those guy who'd buy what he thought was cool, whether it made sense or not (for example, he just bought a brass Milwaukee Road Little Joe, though his layout has no overhead wires and is a Northeast prototype). He considered such purchases to be 'investments' and I brought this subject up, how brass has tanked in value and how much people take a hit when they try to sell anything used at a train show. I said, "I bought all my rolling stock and locos to run, not to sit around and be a burden for my wife to get rid of if I step out in front of a bus tomorrow."

The "brass as an investment" idea is even worse if you compare it against another investment instead of against inflation.  The S&P 500 had a high in 1976 of 108.72.  Today it is 2184, or slightly over 20 times higher.

I have a fair bit of brass, have weathered it all and run the heck out of it.  Who cares what the residual value will be when it is sold again, I'm getting the "fun equity" out of it now. 

Bob posted:

The "brass as an investment" idea is even worse if you compare it against another investment instead of against inflation.  The S&P 500 had a high in 1976 of 108.72.  Today it is 2184, or slightly over 20 times higher.

I have a fair bit of brass, have weathered it all and run the heck out of it.  Who cares what the residual value will be when it is sold again, I'm getting the "fun equity" out of it now. 

 

I agree.  I have a number of Williams brass locomotives that I am running.  Investment?  Try an index fund.

I bought a PRR B6sb switcher (shifter in proper PRR-speak) in 2006 for $400 (MIB).  I replaced it last year (in equivalent condition) for $200.

Enjoy your trains.

George

Here's my 3 guidelines for buying engines:

Is it less than $750?

Am I willing to take a Dremel to it?

Can I take it apart if something needs to be fixed?

If not, I don't buy it.

About  2o years ago I sold my collection of 100 HO & HOn3 locomotives to a brass dealer who I had bought from. I said I wanted get rid of them all and knew I wouldn't get retail price. He gave me 75% of retail which was a good deal-I was expecting 50%.   So with my 5 grand I invested in guns-antiques and some automatic weapons.  They really went up in value but I cashed out of that too.  So now I have O and Standard gauge and don't give a hoot on value.

Jim, you should have kept the automatics. They've rocketed up in value. For example, a Tommy Gun can easily go for well into 6-figures now!

The brass dealer later told me I sold at a good time because plastic with all the detail was knocking brass down.  I had a BAR and  a German MP44  and they are all worth megabucks now. The auto weapons were hassle because people would call the cops when I shot them on our family's 160 acre farm.  Plus I was afraid of them being stolen. I could have built a nice layout with the $$. Really trains are more fun.

Anybody who buys brass or any train for that manner and expects it to hold its value has rocks in their head. 

Some of the brass importers like OMI only has their selves to blame. Some looked great but they had cheap drivetrains. 

There was a thought amongst some of the importers that why make them run good when most will only be put on display. 

Model trains are to use not to become a investment. 

phill posted:

I find it amazing how any brass company today can sell their new models when people realize what will happen to their non investment.  

"investment"??????      You are obviously in the wrong hobby if you believe brass locomotives are an "investment".

Yes, I guess, I will be running these models, if they do run,  in the future and get enjoyment out of them.   I won't consider selling them and the sons can when I pass.   But looking and see a bid on one Santa Fe SD40-2 at $1100+.  There is hope

Rule292 posted:

Slight qualification needed... 

Some brass may be losing value but quality brass is not..

This is actually true.  For example, the Overland Palace Poultry car currently at $590 on eBay with 2 days left.  I have clear memories of thinking these were outrageously pricey when they were selling in the mid-$300's......  Silly me, should have bought every one then, but who knew.....

OTOH, people that think that model trains, brass, etc. are investments are welcome to that mindset and that element of risk.  It's only really worth what you can sell it for within a very short time period.  If you need to liquidate it tomorrow......to pay for that emergency hangnail surgery....

I have 6 Right of Way, 2 Williams, and 1 Weaver brass locomotives and enjoy them all, even though each has plummeted in value.  As for the plastic SD40-2 I have a Weaver UP model with the correct middle idler wheels which I think compares quite favorably to brass.

Lew

mwb posted:

Rule292 posted:

Slight qualification needed... 

Some brass may be losing value but quality brass is not..

This is actually true.  For example, the Overland Palace Poultry car currently at $590 on eBay with 2 days left.  I have clear memories of thinking these were outrageously pricey when they were selling in the mid-$300's......  Silly me, should have bought every one then, but who knew.....

OTOH, people that think that model trains, brass, etc. are investments are welcome to that mindset and that element of risk.  It's only really worth what you can sell it for within a very short time period.  If you need to liquidate it tomorrow......to pay for that emergency hangnail surgery....

Actually, I can give several examples of quality brass made by Boo-Rim (Doesn't get much better) that aren't going for much more than 50 or 60 percent.

Example: I'm an Erie fan and I've always wanted a good K5 Pacific. The best are (of course) in HO. Precision Scale recently did a beautiful K5. I believe these were sold originally for $1200-$1400 or so. I just watched one new in the box go unsold after a week with a no reserve price of $800.

Another example would be pretty much any Boo-Rim made River Raisin S scale brass.

You have to have the right buyer or even quality brass is taking a hit. 

I noticed when N&W 611 came back out the number of models for sale jumped on E-Bay, at 25-30% higher than the previous year when I bought mine.  I guess sellers were thinking they could make a buck or two on the 611's return to the rails.

If I knew then what I know now I would have started off buying those Williams/Samhongsa brass steamers sooner, I got the 4 I have at good prices IMO, even if they are lacking in the amount of detail.  I'd be most happy with owning only those 4 and not the other 6 steamers and 8 diesels I have.

Rule292 posted:

Slight qualification needed... 

Some brass may be losing value but quality brass is not..

 So, what is "quality" brass?  

What are the metrics by which brass would be judged to be...quality...in comparing one item to another?

TCA has standards that provide cosmetic definitions/rankings.

The International Organization for Standards has created the ISO (not an acronym) system for "ensuring that products and services are safe, reliable, and of good quality".   

I've never seen a grading system for the quality of this hobby's brass products.   Does one exist?

And, I always thought 'value' was a personal perception.

Just curious.

KD

dkdkrd posted:

Rule292 posted:

Slight qualification needed... 

Some brass may be losing value but quality brass is not..

 So, what is "quality" brass?  

What are the metrics by which brass would be judged to be...quality...in comparing one item to another?

There aren't any other than the marketplace and time.  That's part of it being a high risk investment - there are no metrics, no grading systems, etc.  That's also why it's a poor investment.  Combine that with the propensity for O scaler modelers to be painfully cheap and needing a crowbar to open their wallets always looking for a bargain (think about bottom feeders at train meets...).

Back to that Overland poultry car - only time it's been imported, an unusual car, and done well; same story for the coffin pickle car and the vinegar.  They have held and increased in selling price - some of the Pac Lmt. cars, many of the Yoder cars now, etc. are in this category.

dkdkrd posted:

Rule292 posted:

Slight qualification needed... 

Some brass may be losing value but quality brass is not..

 So, what is "quality" brass?  

What are the metrics by which brass would be judged to be...quality...in comparing one item to another?

TCA has standards that provide cosmetic definitions/rankings.

The International Organization for Standards has created the ISO (not an acronym) system for "ensuring that products and services are safe, reliable, and of good quality".   

I've never seen a grading system for the quality of this hobby's brass products.   Does one exist?

And, I always thought 'value' was a personal perception.

Just curious.

KD

Why I thought everyone knew that the standard for quality brass was ASTM-D 2r-o-1:48-P:48?

mwb posted:

Rule292 posted:

Slight qualification needed... 

Some brass may be losing value but quality brass is not..

This is actually true.  For example, the Overland Palace Poultry car currently at $590 on eBay with 2 days left.  I have clear memories of thinking these were outrageously pricey when they were selling in the mid-$300's......  Silly me, should have bought every one then, but who knew.....

OTOH, people that think that model trains, brass, etc. are investments are welcome to that mindset and that element of risk.  It's only really worth what you can sell it for within a very short time period.  If you need to liquidate it tomorrow......to pay for that emergency hangnail surgery....

Martin...  Not trying to take issue with your perception of the OM Palace Poultry car being quality, but help me understand why your comments wouldn't reflect as much the scarcity of this model coming onto the secondary market as much as a reflection of its quality??....which is the only basis mentioned in the quote.

IOW, would the modified response, "Some brass may be declining in price, but truly scarce brass is not", also apply?....and maybe more so to the larger market?   

I have often paid more than original msrp for an item or two....including brass.  But, not because I was on a quest for quality, but because I knew they were few and far between...and my own mortality kicks in and says 'I may not be here tomorrow or a year from now when the next one comes along....I'm going to bid/pay NOW!'.  

I've always thought of brass products by Kohs to be exceptional, highly detailed, very expensive (by my budget standards) at the original purchase price.  Probably their products would fit the ambiguous term 'Quality', too.  They're certainly made in small quantities, but the market for their products is also small.  That said, I've seen a few of their early products selling for less than the original price, or, at least, not selling at a price that keeps pace with inflation.  I don't think that makes those few items of any less quality than the rest of Kohs products.  I believe Kohs has a very consistent expectation/demand of quality in all of their products.

Sorry to belabor this, but I'm part of that hoi polloi  (love that term!....from the York thread!) brass-buying group that understands scarcity/rarity more than...."quality".

I know....maybe I'm just trying to better understand 'elite' terminology/rationale.  

Rejoice.  I'm done.  finis.

KD

Guess when I cack, my son will have to send my brass collection off to the breakers in India, to retrieve their scrap value.

dkdkrd posted:

Sorry to belabor this, but I'm part of that hoi polloi  (love that term!....from the York thread!) brass-buying group that understands scarcity/rarity more than...."quality".

I know....maybe I'm just trying to better understand 'elite' terminology/rationale.  

Scarcity figures in as well, sure.  But scarce doesn't make up for lousy.....high accuracy to prototype with high level of correct detail. 

But, as much as my background originally in dealing in collectables exists buying and selling I can tell you that everything is a moving target....and what was a hot quality item 30 years ago is today something you can't give away and the converse.       Think peanut butter glasses..... Really?

Brass as an investment...........go to Vegas, catch some shows, play some slots, cards, dice it's entertainment just like my trains.  Buying brass is like buying a new car, soon as it leaves the lot the value starts going down.  There are exceptions and from what I see the exceptions are in rolling stock not in locomotive power.  Locomotives may go up some if all the units are sold out when they are originally delivered such as some of Key Imports E units. 

The items I see appreciating in price are unusual rolling stock.  The perfect example is Rich Yoder's boxcar with the art deco ends.  They are constantly going for higher than list on ebay.  Cabooses that are factory painted with limited runs go for higher than retail.   I'm noticing some brass structures going for higher than retail.

The funny thing is when someone sells a piece or brass or kit on ebay for higher than retail all of a sudden you see several more models for sale......the early bird gets the worm and most of the other sales go for lower prices but some still go for higher than retail.

Buying high end brass is the chance you take.  I have ordered a Midwestern Model Works N&W SD-45 win the bicentennial paint  scheme.  I have always wanted this diesel and committed before I heard about the MTH model.  I have the Overland N&W 1776 caboose and found the decals.  If you see this caboose it's going for a much higher price on ebay.........still unpainted.  I know I may never get my money out of this model but it's in the top 5 of my bucket list.  Another is the VGN Berkshire which if Kohs does come thru, IT"S MINE!!!!  I already have the rolling stock and caboose to go behind it.

I line up with the "scarcity" crowd.  There is a limited market for the poultry car, and obviously an even more limited number of imports available.  It is probably no higher in quality than a good Pacific Limited car.

What happened is sort of like this:  the Max Gray SP AC-4  went skyrocketing to $4 grand at roughly the turn of the century.  Then Sunset imported the AC-4/5/6 for roughly $1200, fully painted and well detailed.  The value of the Max items immediately dropped to roughly the same price.

Do not think for a minute that the poultry car cannot suffer the same fate.  It probably will not, because most of us simply do not want poultry cars.

So, me too - what defines quality brass?

I buy all of my brass for their investment value.  But for me, the return on investment is the hours of enjoyment I have seeing them operate on my layout.  If they don't have any financial value after that, it will not bother me at all.

bob2 posted:

So, me too - what defines quality brass?

Should be of sufficient gauge that it doesn't collapse when you attempt to pick it up.

Should have all or most of the attributes of the prototype, to the extent that is possible considering the gauge.

Should be reasonably close to the dimensions of the prototype.

Should have a sturdy reliable Drive.

Simon

It isn't only brass that is losing value, though I have pieces that sold way over the paid price. Look at the selling sites and all the Lionel and mth products that sell way less the day after it come out. Look at all the Sunset items for sales listed over and over, even some of the newer arrivals.

Stephen

phill posted:

I had bought an Overland SD40-2 painted UP #3400 a decade + ago and paid $1000 and see on EBAY as bidding at just over $600 and I am just hoping that it bids out around that $1000.   If you are bidding I am sorry that I feel that way as I know everyone wants a steal but I want to keep its value up there.  Is it that interest in Brass just slipping away as more detail is now in plastic.  I still think brass has the best and sharper details and one can't find a good SD40-2 in plastic.  

The first thing you have to think of is what is the value of the dollar for the day you bought it versus today.

Second is a question: Do you expect everything you own to retain it's original value?

I am having a great deal of difficulty finding any empathy for you.

Simon

A Ferrari, a 1967 GTB that I turned my nose up at $6500 in 1972 sells for seven figures now. An original Ford GT I passed on at $35,000 in 1975 is worth 2.5 to 3 million now. Some of the cars I raced in the 60s and 70s are now priceless.

Here is my point, serious money chases art, cars and exclusive real estate while the population that buys brass is getting smaller and probably less inclined to spend large sums for individual brass locos and cars due to our collective age,,,,as well as, wanting to leave something, liquid investments, and real estate to heirs. Or how about just trying to afford to live in old age.

However, what a great time to add a piece you love to display or run on your railroad, but certainly never as a financial investment.

This is an interesting thread. I currently own approximately 25 brass engines - mostly western railroads - I've collected over the last 25 to 30 years. Many years ago I purchased several Lionel engines but for personal reasons decided to sell all of them before their 'value' dropped like a rock.  Just plain dumb luck! I can honestly say after purchasing each of my brass engine I've never given their appreciation or depreciation in value a second thought. I've always subscribed to the belief that one should collect what gives them personal pleasure not what will increase in value over time. I can't even honestly say today which engines have increased in value and which have depreciated in value.  Collecting brass engines as a hedge to inflation is in my opinion just plain ridiculous. My primary interest then as now has always been collecting engines run by the Southern Pacific first, Santa Fe second and Union Pacific third.  

If any of my brass collection increases or decreases in value I really don't pay much if any attention. Frankly there are many other more important things in life to deal with like ones personal health!

ecd15 posted:

phill posted:

I find it amazing how any brass company today can sell their new models when people realize what will happen to their non investment.  

But, that's the whole point.  I don't buy brass as an investment.  I buy brass because it is of a prototype I like and want.  As many have said before me, trains are not investments.

Yes, It is like buying a new car. One buys it and drives it off the lot and loses 25% right there. and over the years it will continue to lose value. So one should always buy used equipment and get the savings.