Don't say NEVER. If there is enough money involved, they will appear. 
Simon
Simon Winter posted:Don't say NEVER. If there is enough money involved, they will appear.
Simon
Correct......some molds that were scrapped 50 years ago have been cloned.....not hard today. I was part of a team that cloned a kit using mint vintage kit scanned and then cut a new tool. But these clones always have some minor difference....often keeping vintage kits safe.
Today I do some market research for plastic kit manufactures......unless GM pays to have a new 64 Corvair tool cut....it will not happen in my life time......cost to profit margin WAY off the page!!! thx
Rule292 posted:phill posted:That OMI 0 SD 40-2 sold for $748.
I'm not a modern era modeler... but IIRC the OMI C-40-8W went for under a grand painted when they were new in the 90's, is that not correct?
Overland stuff was state of the art detail wise when they came out. Unfortunately their operating characteristics leave something to be desired.
The economy has peaks and valleys and right now it is running nearly flat.
AND it does seem like many collections are hitting the streets lately... a few of us selling or dying off?
Still seems like a normal business cycle for O scale brass.
I am sure many here are older than 55 and barely touched the steam era. When we are gone who will want our steam models in the quantity we had produced in our time. I have a few and lucky I have a son that is also into O scale collecting. So that's where it goes
I've always been puzzled by the concern for future resale value of our trains. Almost all other hobby/leisure activities folks engage in are consumed when they are enjoyed--a round of golf, an expensive vacation, a gourmet meal, etc, etc.
Do it for the pleasure it gives you.
Scotie
phill posted:Rule292 posted:phill posted:That OMI 0 SD 40-2 sold for $748.
I'm not a modern era modeler... but IIRC the OMI C-40-8W went for under a grand painted when they were new in the 90's, is that not correct?
Overland stuff was state of the art detail wise when they came out. Unfortunately their operating characteristics leave something to be desired.
The economy has peaks and valleys and right now it is running nearly flat.
AND it does seem like many collections are hitting the streets lately... a few of us selling or dying off?
Still seems like a normal business cycle for O scale brass.
I am sure many here are older than 55 and barely touched the steam era. When we are gone who will want our steam models in the quantity we had produced in our time. I have a few and lucky I have a son that is also into O scale collecting. So that's where it goes
Ain't that the truth Phill!
When I croak nobody is going to want (or appreciate) my 1940's era PRR stuff no mater how well detailed or accurate it is.
phill posted:When we are gone who will want our steam models in the quantity we had produced in our time.
Pretty sure that at that point, we won't be worried about that anymore. And, if one has to worry about it now, then maybe now is the time to make the hard decisions.
Fwiw overland imported 125 of the palace cars. I have a flock and they are fantastic models. PAC limited NYC and SP boxcars are fantastic--- the prr cars are very pedestrian in comparison. Protocraft and yoder are the high bar now.
kohs has done amazing cement hoppers and gondolas. I am highly suspect he can keep the game going. Bill Davis imported a small run of Erie boxcars-- cool items if you can find them.
i am keen on over lands cabeese--- many are superb models with unusual trucks and fun to letter and weather.
A most fascinating and timely thread as I am re entering brass collecting (mainly HO and some Yoder O) after a dedicated stint in the 80's and 90's. I buy what I like and can afford (The Blue Collar Collector) yet constantly strive to educate myself and understand the difference between quality levels, manufacturers and importers. I was originally seduced by possible "investor" allure decades ago but quickly learned the reality of used-car reality and today's Antiques Roadshow collector rough-and-tumble waaa-waaa-waaa. Prices crashed (and the market died) and the associated generation of collectors are dying, new buyers and builders are few, there is a glut of old supply that sits and it's a buyers market unless a seller finds that particular collector or educated buyer. It truly IS a good time to get back into the classic brass market; I'm rebuilding and expanding my old collection for the same or LESS than what I paid then which allows me to expand into several new personal short line and regional Road likes at bargain prices....AND reserve several new releases in HO. In the short term I collect but come retirement I'll endevour to lightly run on modules; but most of all I accumulate particular pieces for family remembrance, emotion and enjoyment which is counter-intuitive to investment. Brass is NOT a precious metal; you want investment look to gold and silver and their associated earthly relatives that ride the markets along with other financial products. Last I looked, brass trains did not rank up there with rare art works and real estate unless you're in the 1%'ers of both the brass market and high rollers.
BradA posted:PAC limited NYC and SP boxcars are fantastic--- the prr cars are very pedestrian in comparison.
If you're tossing out the X23 cars, I'll be by with my bucket.
Martin,
which door version do on do You Want?
email in profile
BradA posted:Martin,
which door version do on do You Want?
email in profile
Early, preferably unlettered, 
CVRR actually had some of these.........
When we croak, who cares if our collection appreciates or depreciates. It's not like someone is going to put a check in your coffin for you to cash. Stop speculating what might happen and live and enjoy your hobby now. The investment is "enjoyment and friends". Everyone seems to talk about brass losing value, plastic is much worse.
Stephen
phill posted:VGN64 posted:Brass as an investment...........go to Vegas, catch some shows, play some slots, cards, dice it's entertainment just like my trains. Buying brass is like buying a new car, soon as it leaves the lot the value starts going down. There are exceptions and from what I see the exceptions are in rolling stock not in locomotive power. Locomotives may go up some if all the units are sold out when they are originally delivered such as some of Key Imports E units.
The items I see appreciating in price are unusual rolling stock. The perfect example is Rich Yoder's boxcar with the art deco ends. They are constantly going for higher than list on ebay. Cabooses that are factory painted with limited runs go for higher than retail. I'm noticing some brass structures going for higher than retail.
The funny thing is when someone sells a piece or brass or kit on ebay for higher than retail all of a sudden you see several more models for sale......the early bird gets the worm and most of the other sales go for lower prices but some still go for higher than retail.
Buying high end brass is the chance you take. I have ordered a Midwestern Model Works N&W SD-45 win the bicentennial paint scheme. I have always wanted this diesel and committed before I heard about the MTH model. I have the Overland N&W 1776 caboose and found the decals. If you see this caboose it's going for a much higher price on ebay.........still unpainted. I know I may never get my money out of this model but it's in the top 5 of my bucket list. Another is the VGN Berkshire which if Kohs does come thru, IT"S MINE!!!! I already have the rolling stock and caboose to go behind it.
I still think the comments refer to scarcity of the piece and not the quality. I don't remember seeing from OM anything saying we are building this model to higher standards as with Atlas model and the Trainman vs masters line. So i vote for Scarcity vs quality. And those chicken cars. well who made them other than the brass people and how many. Now like an F unit that was so over produced in so many scales.
I'm not concerned with the value of my brass...only that it runs well, and is representative of the prototype I model.
Ditto....just enjoy them....
If you don't enjoy them...sell them....they ain't going up in value...
Just buy what you enjoy and dont worry about it. No offense but its not just brass, seems the plastic and diecast things go down as well. In my opinion brass holds its value more than the diecast/plastic anyway. Everytime a new sound system comes out the price tanks on older equipment. Search for PS2 locos they are way under what they cost and PS1, I am surprised when you buy one the seller doesn’t put money in the box for you to take it. Most of the brass especially the older stuff stays pretty steady up and down some but like US Hobbies nearly always brings more than what it did new. But again at the end of the day... cars, houses, boats, tv, computers, cellphones, furniture, clothes usually all goes down. So since I enjoy my trains, warm houses, clothes, tv, and even my cellphone... i will be willing to take that loss. Good luck!
Scotie posted:I've always been puzzled by the concern for future resale value of our trains.
I know plenty of people who are concerned about that, in regard of what the sale will net their family afterward. I've made it clear to my wife that there is generally not a huge aftermarket for used model trains. It's my WW2 collection that she will likely do well with getting ride of if she outlives me and finds a good buyer. But many of you Lionel collectors have an equal chance for the survivors for them to sell the stuff after you're gone. That's a collectible as opposed to just a second-hand thing...
As for brass in general, a pal of mine has dozens of HO brass locos, and he knows it's worth a fraction of what he paid for it, even comparing dollar-to-dollar (not even adjusting for inflation, which really shows how much the value has dropped). Let's face it; brass was popular in an era where most RTR stuff required a lot of work. Brass did, too (remember all those articles in the magazines on how to get brass running well?). Then, you had to pay someone to paint it as nobody seemed to know how to take the things apart and have them still running once they went back together. Heck, most of the RTR stuff you can get in about any scale these days is as detailed (maybe even more so) than brass was back then. it's no shock that the bottom has fallen out of the brass market.
Prices on collectibles are falling due to demographic changes too. Young people in general do not engage in hobbies. The greatest generation that was the consumption bulge in our economy is dying— and that has killed demand and pricing for fine rugs, art, furniture and trains! Just wait for the next ten years when they liquidate their stocks to live! That will be a real downer....
Yet, at some point demand will return and production will not exist...
those overland palace poultry cars? 125 made in o scale in 1986. I have a half dozen and don’t regret it!
You think brass loses value? Think how much value crumbling diecast has lost or will lose.
Buying trains is like loaning money to a relative, only spend to the comfort level knowing you will get little or nothing back.
Some times it is good to loan a modest amount of money (just enough to shut up your spouse) to certain relatives guaranteeing that you will never see them again.
Some times it is good to loan a modest amount of money (just enough to shut up your spouse) to certain relatives guaranteeing that you will never see them again.
Yet, at some point demand will return and production will not exist...
There will be so much product on the street that it won't matter.
If there is demand for certain items, then someone will start up a basement operation. "
How much new product was there in 1971?
Tom Tee posted:You think brass loses value? Think how much value crumbling diecast has lost or will lose.
It's across the entire hobby spectrum.
!983 to 1999 NASCAR items of all kinds were the hottest selling thing in hobbies. A buddy and I bought 50 cases of Bill Elliott 1983 Thunderbird model kits at $3 each, wholesale in 1983. We held them until early 1990 and sold each for $100!!! Today....lucky if you get $10.... that's just the way it is today.
This is a very interesting thread, Brass, and collectibility or purchasing for the looks of realism, or desire ability.. I can appreciate the detail Brass brings, but it’s out of my pocketbook. I admire those Model Railroaders that run Brass, have fantastic railroads, I just am happy with die cast and plastic. I am sold on Lionel VisionLine, Legacy, and the Legacy Control System. Regardless of what my collection may bring when I begin to liquidate, is ok, I enjoy running the trains I have, I take really good care of them. So far, I have been lucky. I am in the hobby for fun and relaxation and enjoyment, with many friends. You can not place a resale price on that. I think Brass will always bring the most, depends on supply and demand. The new electronics today are highly desirable to me. Lionel is getting their feet wet with brass, the new Brass/Hybrid, with Legacy, which I BTO. Hopefully it will be nice. Merry Christmas to All.
Simon Winter posted:bob2 posted:So, me too - what defines quality brass?
Should be of sufficient gauge that it doesn't collapse when you attempt to pick it up.
Should have all or most of the attributes of the prototype, to the extent that is possible considering the gauge.
Should be reasonably close to the dimensions of the prototype.
Should have a sturdy reliable Drive.
Simon
What are the metrics understandable by all for the following terms:
"Sufficient"....re metal gauge?
"Most"....re 1:1 attributes?
"Reasonably close"....re dimensional accuracy?
"Sturdy"....re reliable drive?
(Good grief, Charlie Brown! I must be spending too much time in court listening to lawyers!!!
)
This whole discussion reminds me of one of the lessons that adults have learned..."Raising teenagers is like nailing Jell-O to a tree."
IOW....defining quality brass is like nailing....etc.
and, BTW....I keep the following fact up-to-date behind our (LHS) counter for especially this season when a Lionel train set is frequently asked for....then reviled because of its msrp: "My Lionel train set given to me in 1953 has a printed msrp of $49.95 on the box. That same set would, adjusted for inflation according to US Government CPI data, cost $461.47 today, 2017." It helps.
Whatever.
KD
AMCDave posted:Tom Tee posted:You think brass loses value? Think how much value crumbling diecast has lost or will lose.
It's across the entire hobby spectrum.
Two words: Beenie Babies
p51 posted:AMCDave posted:Tom Tee posted:You think brass loses value? Think how much value crumbling diecast has lost or will lose.
It's across the entire hobby spectrum.
Two words: Beenie Babies
Got that.....my daughter had a number of them when she was a child. I found them packed away not long ago.....including the rare version of the ghost that was selling at $1000.....but now is around $5....
Demographic cliff ...
2017 NMRA stats: The average age of membership is 68 , the average age of new members is 58
One day, the market will be flooded with thousands of brass models. Same thing for electric guitars, hot rods, HD motorcycles and the list goes on. Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.
Used brass prices have several factors with the three biggest in my view being quality, numbers and demand. Today people want something that is prototypical and runs well. While Overland was the leader, built beautiful models and ran as well or better than most competitors back then by today's standards they don't run well. Kemtron didn't run, Oriental was a little better and PSC was better than most. None of them run like the brass we get today. The numbers produced of the same model built by multiple vendors are so far over demand it drives the prices down. As running ability improved so did factory paint. People want things RTR so if you had brass that needed to be painted or rebuilt for running your price just went down. Demand for a particular railroad or piece of equipment also influences price. Look at Car and Locomotive Shops WM cabooses, there are so many other nice WM cabooses out there I have picked these beautiful cabooses up for very little while I have never seen a VGN Trainmaster for sale since he originally sold them. Lord knows what it would cost if I do see one.
If you think brass prices are going down look at Key Imports, Kohs and now Midwestern Models. How many people are paying close to $3,000 for a Midwestern SD-45??? If you are buying brass as an investment you will never be my financial advisor. If you are buying brass as a hobby that one day you hope to get some of your money back then you are much smarter than Beanie Baby collectors were........ ;-)
PAT44 posted:Demographic cliff ...
Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.
Millennials have delayed marriage and starting families. They will begin buying homes once they start having families. Immigration will pick up any remaining housing market slack. Nearly everyone in the world wants to buy a piece of the USA because it is a relatively safe investment.
I agree that brass model trains will probably lose value just because so many wonderful models are being made with other materials.
NH Joe
New Haven Joe posted:PAT44 posted:Demographic cliff ...
Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.Millennials have delayed marriage and starting families. They will begin buying homes once they start having families. Immigration will pick up any remaining housing market slack. Nearly everyone in the world wants to buy a piece of the USA because it is a relatively safe investment.
Yep, just try looking into a home or condo in a big city (except Detroit) . You probably can't afford it.
Millennials are doing what I did (I'm 48 now). I got married at 30 and didn't buy a house until a few years after that. I can't fault them for not stacking up crushing responsibilities the moment they get done with school.
2017 NMRA stats: The average age of membership is 68 , the average age of new members is 58
One day, the market will be flooded with thousands of brass models. Same thing for electric guitars, hot rods, HD motorcycles and the list goes on.
Previously expensive RR books are now being had for good prices because of this. I bought a book on the Milwaukee Road that I never saw for under about $125 a decade ago, for less than $30 recently. Drives the book guys at RR shows nuts, trying to sell for the old high-end prices when people can get them way cheaper online (and tell them as such before walking away from the table without buying anything). And why? Because the original owners are croaking.
Like I wrote earlier, I'm in my late 40s, and each time I enter a NMRA event, the median age drops at least a decade by my presence. Sure, I see younger people than me at some of their events, but not many.
A pal of mine was a member of a huge ham radio club. He wrote me last month that they officially disbanded the club because the majority of the existing members have all given up as they're too old to go to events or use radios anymore. He said there were less than ten members under the age of 70, and none younger than their 40s.
The irony is that the family members of the ones who've passed are shocked to find that nobody wants to buy the radio gear and many can't find anyone to even donate it to. They're hitting the hard reality of what they thought would be a pay day turned out to be a bust.
Think of model train magazines when a model train guy croaks. Sound familiar?
New Haven Joe posted:PAT44 posted:Demographic cliff ...
Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.
Millennials have delayed marriage and starting families. They will begin buying homes once they start having families. Immigration will pick up any remaining housing market slack. Nearly everyone in the world wants to buy a piece of the USA because it is a relatively safe investment.
I agree that brass model trains will probably lose value just because so many wonderful models are being made with other materials.
NH Joe
I’m a millennial and by the time I’m finished with school I’ll be 300k in debt, do you blame us for not buying homes 
.
PAT44 posted:Demographic cliff ...
2017 NMRA stats: The average age of membership is 68 , the average age of new members is 58
One day, the market will be flooded with thousands of brass models. Same thing for electric guitars, hot rods, HD motorcycles and the list goes on. Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.
Lots of folks point to HD as a business on life support due to age demographics.
I always tell them as long as people get old there will be Harleys.
Perspective:
About 7 or 8 years ago a custom engine builder and painter was showing me a Lionel boxcar he was painting. At that time he said the brass market just has to keep going down because there is no way that brass builders can compete with the increasing level of plastic detail now available.
That brought to mind something I did quite a while ago. I had a friend, long departed, who had a great collection of 0 scale brass. Everything, engines, passenger cars, all manner of freight cars. He just ran them round and round like a proud race horse owner bragging about his thoroughbreds. Swore there was nothing like real brass. One day I snuck two Intermountain PFE reefers into his string of brass PFE reefers and put two $20. bills on the track. One for each "hunk of junk" plastic cars he could pick out. Out of 25 PFE cars he guessed on a few brass cars but failed to identify the plastic ones.
So I picked up the money and turned on the power. He listened to his string of rattling tin cans going by until the two silent ones rode by and just shook his head.
Be that as it may - plastic just doesn't do it for me.
Tom Tee posted:Perspective:
About 7 or 8 years ago a custom engine builder and painter was showing me a Lionel boxcar he was painting. At that time he said the brass market just has to keep going down because there is no way that brass builders can compete with the increasing level of plastic detail now available.
That brought to mind something I did quite a while ago. I had a friend, long departed, who had a great collection of 0 scale brass. Everything, engines, passenger cars, all manner of freight cars. He just ran them round and round like a proud race horse owner bragging about his thoroughbreds. Swore there was nothing like real brass. One day I snuck two Intermountain PFE reefers into his string of brass PFE reefers and put two $20. bills on the track. One for each "hunk of junk" plastic cars he could pick out. Out of 25 PFE cars he guessed on a few brass cars but failed to identify the plastic ones.
So I picked up the money and turned on the power. He listened to his string of rattling tin cans going by until the two silent ones rode by and just shook his head.
Sounds like he needed glasses.
Rule292 posted:PAT44 posted:Demographic cliff ...
2017 NMRA stats: The average age of membership is 68 , the average age of new members is 58
One day, the market will be flooded with thousands of brass models. Same thing for electric guitars, hot rods, HD motorcycles and the list goes on. Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.
Lots of folks point to HD as a business on life support due to age demographics.
I always tell them as long as people get old there will be Harleys.
Like brass trains, pre and postwar Lionels, the market for old HD's has gone down in value, w/the exception of 1966 to 1969 shovelheads which in the past 5-7 yrs have been slowly climbing in resale value.
Trussman posted:Rule292 posted:PAT44 posted:Demographic cliff ...
2017 NMRA stats: The average age of membership is 68 , the average age of new members is 58
One day, the market will be flooded with thousands of brass models. Same thing for electric guitars, hot rods, HD motorcycles and the list goes on. Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.
Lots of folks point to HD as a business on life support due to age demographics.
I always tell them as long as people get old there will be Harleys.
Like brass trains, pre and postwar Lionels, the market for old HD's has gone down in value, w/the exception of 1966 to 1969 shovelheads which in the past 5-7 yrs have been slowly climbing in resale value.
That's a bit different than the brass market.
That is mostly due to the age demographic shift. That's why there are fewer and fewer steam era modelers than in the 60's and more modern prototype modelers.
At some point in time 69 Camaros with DZ 302's will be worth less than a mid 90's Subaru WRX STi. I would think the 60's chopper era hasn't yet peaked thus the 60's shovels hold value. Things such as ironhead Sportys, which don't have the Captain America era lure, can be had very reasonably priced.
I wonder how well Erik Stott would do selling modern prototype brass cars at the appropriate premium price.
Rule292 posted:...I wonder how well Erik Stott would do selling modern prototype brass cars at the appropriate premium price.
Midwestern is trying to get enough reservations to build brass modern lumber cars for $500 each. Lets just say he's at about 10% of what he needs.
As far as I'm concerned, it's all over-valued. Lots of people jumped on a craze and overpaid. Others got in deep manufacturing them and missed their window. Pecos just sold at auction one of their remaining 4-6-4s for a bit over $300 (I know cause I was bidding). 2 sellers have had them listed at prices twice or more than that for months. Pecos just listed another with a minimum of $400. So he's abandoned the idea that there's a market and he's established a bottom line - we'll see if anybody buys. I know where I'm at... i'm not paying $400.
Too many of these brass locomotives in all scales are sitting on the auction sites with what I would consider over-valued prices. Yes, bidding gets up on some models here or there, but most the stuff that hits the auction sites sits. It sits because it's not worth the bottom dollar asking price. Meanwhile, most of the auctions are drawing a bit more than items are actually worth - since most available stock is over-valued, the few niche buyers are spending up on auctions to get as close to value as possible on accessible inventory.
I like Brass locomotives and I like steam in particular and I'm 36 which makes me pretty rare in this hobby. From my perspective, I see no reason to pay a ton of money for anything at this time. I'm only buying at bottom dollar. There is just too much opportunity on the horizon not to be patient and frugal.
Rule292 posted:Trussman posted:Rule292 posted:PAT44 posted:Demographic cliff ...
2017 NMRA stats: The average age of membership is 68 , the average age of new members is 58
One day, the market will be flooded with thousands of brass models. Same thing for electric guitars, hot rods, HD motorcycles and the list goes on. Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.
Lots of folks point to HD as a business on life support due to age demographics.
I always tell them as long as people get old there will be Harleys.
Like brass trains, pre and postwar Lionels, the market for old HD's has gone down in value, w/the exception of 1966 to 1969 shovelheads which in the past 5-7 yrs have been slowly climbing in resale value.That's a bit different than the brass market.
That is mostly due to the age demographic shift. That's why there are fewer and fewer steam era modelers than in the 60's and more modern prototype modelers.
At some point in time 69 Camaros with DZ 302's will be worth less than a mid 90's Subaru WRX STi. I would think the 60's chopper era hasn't yet peaked thus the 60's shovels hold value. Things such as ironhead Sportys, which don't have the Captain America era lure, can be had very reasonably priced.
I wonder how well Erik Stott would do selling modern prototype brass cars at the appropriate premium price.
Not much different then the brass market.
Back in the 90's if you were able to buy an HD you had to pay the dealers price ( no haggling, that's their price, you want it, you pay it), you could walk out and resell it for 1-2k more. Like brass trains, back then a lot had intensions for an investment, but the 2000's came and the market was flooded w/new HD's (yr 2002, production approx 200,000 HD's). Today the dealer will deal on price. Also as time went on, yes, your right the age demographic changed, like trains and motorcycles, the buyers now a days want the new technology.
Ironheads, very affordable for some one who wants to get an old iron.
