Brass losing value

Trussman posted:

Rule292 posted:

Trussman posted:

Rule292 posted:

PAT44 posted:

Demographic cliff ...

2017 NMRA stats: The average age of membership is 68 , the average age of new members is 58

One day, the market will be flooded with thousands of brass models. Same thing for electric guitars, hot rods, HD motorcycles and the list goes on.  Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.

 

 

 

 

 

Lots of folks point to HD as a business on life support due to age demographics. 

I always tell them as long as people get old there will be Harleys.

 

 

Like brass trains, pre and postwar Lionels, the market for old HD's has gone down in value, w/the exception of 1966 to 1969 shovelheads which in the past 5-7 yrs have been slowly climbing in resale value.   

That's a bit different than the brass market. 

That is mostly due to the age demographic shift.    That's why there are fewer and fewer steam era modelers than in the 60's and more modern prototype modelers. 

At some point in time 69 Camaros with DZ 302's will be worth less than a mid 90's Subaru WRX STi.    I would think the 60's chopper era hasn't yet peaked thus the 60's shovels hold value. Things such as ironhead Sportys, which don't have the Captain America era lure, can be had very reasonably priced.

I wonder how well Erik Stott would do selling modern prototype brass cars at the appropriate premium price. 

Not much different then the brass market.

Back in the 90's if you were able to buy an HD you had to pay the dealers price ( no haggling, that's their price, you want it, you pay it), you could walk out and resell it for 1-2k more. Like brass trains, back then a lot had intensions for an investment, but the 2000's came and the market was flooded w/new HD's (yr 2002, production approx 200,000 HD's). Today the dealer will deal on price. Also as time went on, yes, your right the age demographic changed, like trains and motorcycles, the buyers now a days want the new technology. 

 Ironheads, very affordable for some one who wants to get an old iron.  

 

This is very true. I'm also a rare case in the hobby being 15 and it's not very common to see kids like me who collect Postwar. That said, like Trussman mentioned, everyone likes the electronics. I don't know what I would do without DCS. Complex wiring? No thanks. I'll stick to the great sound and hand-held command-control. 

Converting a 2-rail brass locomotive that was never designed for sound to proto 3 in 3 rail would be a nightmare. Glad Lionel has the right idea with the Hybrid Mikes, my future Legacy system may have a use other than controlling a non-powered engine.

I don't think it matters what they are made of. (Brass or plastic)

When the "boomers" are gone, the market for all of our prized trains will evaporate. For every fifty boomers in the hobby today, I doubt if more than one young person comes in.  Our kids will be selling them off at less than 25 cents on the dollar. Sad but true.

GVDobler posted:

I don't think it matters what they are made of. (Brass or plastic)

When the "boomers" are gone, the market for all of our prized trains will evaporate. For every fifty boomers in the hobby today, I doubt if more than one young person comes in.  Our kids will be selling them off at less than 25 cents on the dollar. Sad but true.

Man I can only imagine getting legendary items such as the 1950 773 and early 50's 736 at those prices. 

That's the catch 22. If you are a boomer, like me, you won't see those prices, but your kids will. Whatever you have is worth less than it was yesterday and more the it will be tomorrow.

We had a discussion like this a few years ago, and now it is starting to play out.

Rule292 posted:

Tom Tee posted:

Perspective:

About 7 or 8 years ago a custom engine builder and painter was showing me a Lionel boxcar he was painting.  At that time he said the brass market just has to keep going down because there is no way that brass builders can compete with the increasing level of plastic detail now available.

Sounds like he needed glasses.

It's not that he needed glasses.  The issue is that plastic has gotten so good that plastic will bleed off a good size of the brass buying market further reducing the potential to produce an attractively priced quality brass model.  Thus reducing the run size while by shear lack of volume further  increases fabrication costs, which pushes the new brass price higher.  That, when coupled with stagnate or fixed  income and associated rising medical  costs causes consumer pull back.   Working in the financial sector I am witnessing significant evaporation of discretionary funds and an elevated credit reliance.

Another constricting new market challenge is the increasing quantity of decent estate sales and auctions selling at low tide numbers.  I found it shocking when I walked into the Indy show and saw dozens of tables loaded with crazy low priced estate product.    The Indy pricing was too much temptation for me.  At pennies on the dollar it just was too easy jumping back into quality brass.   There is just something really sweet about decent brass.

The two stand out dependable and honest importers, SS and RY,  are the best hope of continuous quality 0 scale brass IMO.

IMHO:  If I knew what would appreciate in the future, I would have bought up it in the past.

Sure, there are some fine models going for cheap at auction, and those that paid more for them originally, got what they wanted, and now they expect them to appreciate like a fine wine, or vintage sports car, or rare piece of art in less than 20 years, NOT. But the fact of the matter is, Brass is the best medium for making model steam engines because it doesn't deteriorate over time. Plastic, die-cast all oxidize and eventually give in to the ravages of time. But brass, an alloy of Copper and Zinc, doesn't oxidize, and when painted well, lasts a lifetime if not more.

The current market price of anything is based on the "Current Market". Right now there is too much supply and not enough demand on the secondary market for model trains. Give it 100 years.

In 1974, my Dad started Sunset Models (43 years ago). His first model was the HO GN O-1  Mikado. He made 1000 of them and they were pre-sold out before the boat docked. This was a nicely detailed model, made in Japan by MKT, I think, and the retail price was $79. It was painted brass color, had a mashima motor, ran like a watch and they still are running today. Now that I call value.

So is brass losing value today?   Sure, if you paid too much... But will they be worthless 50 years from now, probably not. They will be traded and coveted like fine wines, some of them.

Eventually, I will pass on and most of the other brass importers and engineers and small factories as well. And the art of making a brass model may be lost. What then will happen to the value of brass models?

Today, it's very VERY expensive to make a brass model. Labor all around Asia is approaching Western standards, technology has passed the brass manufacturing process by. Things are still made the old fashioned way with details produced by the Lost-Wax Casting process, and assembly performed by skilled artisans with big soldering irons, taps and screwdrivers. Sure, some of the gears and bushings and frames are made with a CNC machine, but essentially these models are hand made pieces of art. Will they lose their value in 100 years.... how can they. It's art. The value is in the eye of the beholder.

So if you see something you like and you like the price and you buy it, and it brings you Joy, then you have done a good thing for yourself.

Cheers All, Happy Holidays and Enjoy your hobby. There's a lot of really cool stuff out there.

And we are planning a lot of cool stuff next year. It isn't cheap, but it's really good. Will it make you rich, yes, your life will be more rich than before.

Scott

New Haven Joe posted:

PAT44 posted:

Demographic cliff ...

Even the real estate market is doomed as most millennials aren't buying homes.

 

 

 

 

 

Millennials have delayed marriage and starting families.  They will begin buying homes once they start having families.  Immigration will pick up any remaining housing market slack.  Nearly everyone in the world wants to buy a piece of the USA because it is a relatively safe investment.  

I agree that brass model trains will probably lose value just because so many wonderful models are being made with other materials.  

NH Joe

"Katie Scalett O'Hara, the only thing worth anything is the land, Tara."

Larry

The last few years, I've been buying brass on ebay, probably 40 pieces, all steam, some electric. 

I buy them:

1) This is the only way to get a specific engine that I want.  Today's manufacturers make what is popular and will sell, ie, pennsy, UP, SF, etc.

2) Brass engines made in the 70-80's are selling for about what they were sold for, 'back then'.  A lot of them are 'new', 'in the box' and haven't even been run. 

3)  They run extremely well and most have can motors.  I'm not sure where the 'idea' that 'they don't run well' comes from but I haven't had to re-gear or re-motor any of my engines that I have bought in the last few years.  Engines made before around early 70's will have open frame motors but installing a can motor is very easy.  I can't speak for the brass diesels as I have none.  I have 92 engines and they all run like fine watches.  OK, I do have a GN W-1 electric that growls a lot but it still runs fine.

4)  They have detail like this, shown in the pictures, that is not going to be on a contemporary made engine.  Everyone may not care about detail but I enjoy looking at a well detailed steam engine.

5) One opinion is not better than the other.  Each of us has his own 'needs' and enjoying the hobby is what matters and most of all, the camaraderie with my fellow railroaders is half the fun. 

ps: All engines get painted and lighted: my winter projects.

Functioning turret hatches with internal details.

See through walk boards

Functioning cab doors with nicely detailed cab.

Functioning deck plate.

Functioning smoke box door: with inside details.

I like brass locomotives.  In particular,if I like a specific model and want to spend some of my hard earned cash,I do it.  I really don't care about it's value after that.  My family can carry that heavy burden afterwards.

I am a lucky guy.

Norm

At the end of the year, I send an updated list of 'values' of my hobbies (4 of them), as well as other stuff: ie, stock, house, to my daughter (executor) so she has some idea of their value.  I also indicate who to contact for selling (stouts auction and brass trains are excellent).

Important, but I suspect many have not, but I have the 3 wills done in case I die, 'pull the plug' will, and I can't make decisions on my own.  They only cost 300 bucks and is a lot cheaper and faster than probate court, should no 'will' exist.

I plan on enjoying my hobbies until I croak and she can then 'do what she wants' with them.

Scott the man posted

Today, it's very VERY expensive to make a brass model. Labor all around Asia is approaching Western standards, technology has passed the brass manufacturing process by.

 

 

Scott ,   Does this hint of the possibility of bringing at least some of the work stateside?????

I am still happy that trains will give me or my heirs a little return. Just think if we all spent what we did for trains on beer and shots in the bar all the time. How much return would you get from that besides a hangover, nothing for your heirs. 

The other thing I want to say is I always read about the lack of interest by the younger generation, I am only in my mid 30’s and the club my dad and I belong to has better than 1/3 of the members less than 40. We sell to alot of younger modelers who modify and scratchbuild. My honest observation of this is people in this hobby say 60+ have grown up going to trains shows swap meets etc... to find their gems, most of the younger people have been use to buying everything online and that seems to be where most of the younger buy their trains and parts. So I think this misconception by some that there are not any younger people is based off declining show attendance by younger people not that the hobby is doomed. 

To be honest I think it’s the negative ideas like this that I see posted and hear all the time at the train shows that the hobby is dead or dying which is hurting it to potential newcomers in the hobby. Think if you were looking to get into this hobby and came across a thread like this first you would scratch this hobby off the list quickly. Instead of lamenting about what your collection is worth get out there and build and modify show what you can do. If you show what can be done in this hobby and the skills that can be learned. You can help create more demand for the hobby. Every year at our club open house the attendance rises and we pick up new members because we take it from the weird guy in his basement to wow didn’t know this could be done. In fact a few club business meetings ago we had to vote to remove the cap of how many members were allowed in our bylaws.

Anyway get out there and build, buy brass, plastic, diecast, clay, whatever you can afford and makes you happy. 

Supply and demand. Until you change that market dynamic, prices will always be fluid.

BH

To be honest I think it’s the negative ideas like this that I see posted and hear all the time at the train shows that the hobby is dead or dying which is hurting it to potential newcomers in the hobby. Think if you were looking to get into this hobby and came across a thread like this first you would scratch this hobby off the list quickly.

Not as much as today's prices and all the emphasis on the latest and greatest bells  / whistles are hurting the hobby.
Is it good for the hobby for people to read that the cherished postwar train set they had passed down to them is junk and they should spend a small fortune to get something modern?

When prices get low enough, there might be an influx of new people.

One more thought: In how many hobbies is the money spent considered to be recoverable?

I'm sure the new technology and detailed plastic trains has something to do with the decrease in value to brass trains. I strongly believe a lot has to do with the internet, especially ebay. Prior to the internet, if you wanted a certain piece, whether it was a train, classic vehicle part, baseball card, comic book, etc etc, there was the thrill of the hunt. You had to go to a meet, specialty shop or know someone who knows some who has what your looking for which in turn kept the value up. Now you can just sit at the tube and find all the hard to find items at your finger tips. Yes, the internet has leveled the collecting field for the  rare hard to find items for the average person.

As for the family selling my trains after I roll a 7 and start pushing up daisies. What ever they get for them, it's all 100% profit to them. ;-) 

Good point on the internet.  One can get a 'real time' value of an item by looking at the 'sold' section.  Now one has the entire country to find items. 

I have two geiger 130' turntables that were made back in the 70's.  By chance, someone on ebay was selling the complete motorized unit, new, in the box (cost a whole 10 bucks bought as a 'backup') : what's the chance of finding that if I went to a 1000 train shows?

Modeling the west (GN) and living in the east (Ohio), my chances of find GN steam engines at train shows is next to nil. 

If we want something, that gratification can be, usually, met in days or weeks.

I don't care what my trains that I have bought are worth or not worth. I bought my trains to enjoy and meet friends and have fun. 

If your buying trains with the expectation of them increasing in value no matter how high end they may be, your a fool. Buy them to run, have fun and make friends. 

Dave

Seems as if brass isn't much different than anything else.

Things of rarity or quality will always have some value. 

And the constant "generation gap" means that some things will diminish in value whilst others increase as old collectors die off and newer/younger ones want things from THEIR time in life. 

And the net has made finding things easier.  Not necessarily cheaper.  

A thirty dollar Nylint 6600 Ford Truck with mobile home from the 60's  still fetches hundreds of dollars used and anywhere from a grand to a few grand NIB.  Will it always fetch that?   Most likely not after those of us who relish|cherish them die off.

No different with brass or baseball cards or Star Wars collectibles.

samparfitt posted:

Functioning smoke box door: with inside details.

 

 

 

Who made this beauty, OMI or Key?

Love it, especially the TTG and white.  Stunning model, would love to see more in its own thread...

Key made the UP northern.  Have it with silver as well as yellow striping plus the 2-tone challenger. 

Key was making some super detailed stuff around the 90's.

See my thread for more pictures.

UP northern is about a 1/4 down in this thread:

https://ogrforum.com/...thern-railway?page=8     

 Here's the UP challenger, near the bottom of the page.

Also, there's some pictures of the SP cab forwards on this page by key.

https://ogrforum.com/...thern-railway?page=2  

Rule292 posted:

Things of rarity or quality will always have some value.

Required 3rd variable - desirability. 

Good one.

on those beautiful opening hatches - not in my shop.  If a friend brings such a model by for repairs, all those hatches and doors must be fastened shut some way.  

3M makes a 'wall safe' tape that's good for keeping hatches closed.  The grand kids and neighborhood kids play with the 3 rail stuff (excluding the 3rd rail stuff): hands off, look only, on the scale stuff!

I'm surprised they can make such tiny functioning detail parts.  I do a lot of soldering repairs when stuff is loose or broken, but no way have the 'skill set' to make such items.  I also do my own painting but, again, no way could I duplicate the factory paint jobs when they involve thin striping. 

Anyone make any brass buys lately?   Price?  Good|bad|ugly?

Watched some PL cars and miscellaneous brass (PRR Cabeese (oops cabins) go for a fair price.  The were close to what they sold for new years ago if not slightly above.

"I don't care what my trains that I have bought are worth or not worth. I bought my trains to enjoy and meet friends and have fun. 

If your buying trains with the expectation of them increasing in value no matter how high end they may be, your a fool. Buy them to run, have fun and make friends". 

Dave

Once in a while someone writes something that makes sense. I'm with you Dave. Roo.

I’ve got a few pieces on order from MMW. prices are great for what I expect to get but that’s preorder stuff. Haven’t bought anything off the secondary market because the only things I want I don’t want from the guys selling them but the prices are sweet. Half what new is. Trains are cheap and you can get really nice stuff these days for a great price but that comes at somebody else’s expense.

david1 posted:

I don't care what my trains that I have bought are worth or not worth. I bought my trains to enjoy and meet friends and have fun.

Dave

Exactly how I feel, Dave. I bought the trains because I like them and enjoy owning them. I admire them every day as I walk through the house. Some of them I run, others I just look at. But I prefer to keep what I have rather than sell and buy.

MELGAR

Interesting that you like post-war and electronics. I had converted about 15 post-war engines to TMCC. I'm selling all my post-war and have just two of my favorites left. A 2360 GG-1 and a 2321 FM Trainmaster. Both of these are twin motors. The GG-1 still has the original horn but the FM has Railsounds. 

I love this feature!

samparfitt posted:

Key made the UP northern.  Have it with silver as well as yellow striping plus the 2-tone challenger. 

Key was making some super detailed stuff around the 90's.

See my thread for more pictures.

UP northern is about a 1/4 down in this thread:

https://ogrforum.com/...thern-railway?page=8     

 Here's the UP challenger, near the bottom of the page.

Also, there's some pictures of the SP cab forwards on this page by key.

https://ogrforum.com/...thern-railway?page=2  

 

Thanks, I just took a look at your thread.  Very nice models-a bit of an understatement.

The UP 'bald face' 9000 is an item of beauty!  It's on my list of modifications in O Scale...

As I read your thread, I enjoyed your view of life and money.  We share similar ideas.

Now, I'll have to check your thread!

86TA355SR posted:

samparfitt posted:

Key made the UP northern.  Have it with silver as well as yellow striping plus the 2-tone challenger. 

Key was making some super detailed stuff around the 90's.

See my thread for more pictures.

UP northern is about a 1/4 down in this thread:

https://ogrforum.com/...thern-railway?page=8     

 Here's the UP challenger, near the bottom of the page.

Also, there's some pictures of the SP cab forwards on this page by key.

https://ogrforum.com/...thern-railway?page=2  

 

Thanks, I just took a look at your thread.  Very nice models-a bit of an understatement.

The UP 'bald face' 9000 is an item of beauty!  It's on my list of modifications in O Scale...

As I read your thread, I enjoyed your view of life and money.  We share similar ideas.

Now, I'll have to check your thread!

 

There's a Wasatch UP postal baggage car for sale on you know where right now.  It's an odd era car but what a state of the art piece of brass. gorgeous!!!

They are nice models, but hard to pay that price for an unpainted model...

Whether it looses value or not, does not concern me. All I know is the more I look at it, the more I like it!

3rd Rail S-4

Protocraft AAR

Key MILW E6

Key E1

I have come to this thread rather late.  My personal opinion of brass models is they don't do anything for me.  I don't see the reason for unpainted models.  Painted models, on the other hand, would find a place on my layout if they were affordable.  But I suspect that most if not all brass models are fine scale.  I don't think they would like to run on tubular track.....LOL

Eric at MMW has pitched a modern brass freight car, a centerbeam flat car [ state of the art of course ] so time will tell if this model gets enough interest to get produced, the issue with modern freight cars and diesels you really want to own at least a pair of diesels and a few of any modern freight car [ substantial effect on the cost factor] JMO

I do not have a layout and I never will.  I am only interested in a layout where I can run 100 car plus trains around prototypical radius curves and prototypical grades with prototypically sized terminals which means a minimum of 10K square feet just to start.  The artistry of scenery does not interest me so framework alone would be just fine.  But I am interested in the the art and craftsmanship resulting in very accurate miniatures of the real thing displayed by many brass models and, of late several plastic models.  The reason I offer my services to Scott Mann at no cost it to get the models he produces as close to real as his builder will do without going out of Scott's price comfort zone.

So, having said that, MTH offers no value to me at any price and Lionel is only slightly better.  My entire collection of MTH is two ES44s in demo colors and am thinking about the recent Lionel GE demonstrators because that is all that is available (I'm a sucker for demonstrators).  Should brass replacements ever become reality for those they will be replaced with the brass regardless.

And it is not just trains for me.  I am working on or collecting models of ships and planes and science fiction.  A highly believable miniature of a Millennium Falcon is just as interesting to me as a locomotive.  If I had the money to get a Fine Art Models CSS Alabama I'd get it too.

What is the value of any painting or a sculpture or other art?  There are many people who wouldn't pay $10 for the Mona Lisa just as a painting but the market for art says something very different.  The value to me is in the artistry and craftsmanship.

A valuable painting or a Ferrari or brass trains may just be a toys to you, but not to me.

rdunniii posted:

I do not have a layout and I never will.  I am only interested in a layout where I can run 100 car plus trains around prototypical radius curves and prototypical grades with prototypically sized terminals which means a minimum of 10K square feet just to start.  The artistry of scenery does not interest me...

Thus the reason I've often entertained doing outdoor O Scale.  

It would be much easier to run prototype length trains with somewhat realistic length runs of track. 

Though nothing beats the fun of 1:1 scale railroading. 

I can sort of identify with that.  I have only test loops with switch points and frogs at places where they might cause problems.  Once a locomotive can make it around my horrible track, strategic switches, and drastic superelevation, it is often put on display.  More or less forever.

I agree with the idea that a locomotive is art, but mass produced art is pushing it a bit.  So a nice K-Line plastic Train Master, while quite accurate, is just a toy, and my 17/64 scale Cab Forwards are indeed art - in my opinion.

Either way, I do not do O Scale for the bucks.  It is a hobby, flat-out, and when I croak, it will have fully served its purpose.  Any bucks to my estate will be over and above that.

rdunniii posted:

I do not have a layout and I never will.  I am only interested in a layout where I can run 100 car plus trains around prototypical radius curves and prototypical grades with prototypically sized terminals which means a minimum of 10K square feet just to start.  The artistry of scenery does not interest me so framework alone would be just fine.  But I am interested in the the art and craftsmanship resulting in very accurate miniatures of the real thing displayed by many brass models and, of late several plastic models.  The reason I offer my services to Scott Mann at no cost it to get the models he produces as close to real as his builder will do without going out of Scott's price comfort zone.

So, having said that, MTH offers no value to me at any price and Lionel is only slightly better.  My entire collection of MTH is two ES44s in demo colors and am thinking about the recent Lionel GE demonstrators because that is all that is available (I'm a sucker for demonstrators).  Should brass replacements ever become reality for those they will be replaced with the brass regardless.

And it is not just trains for me.  I am working on or collecting models of ships and planes and science fiction.  A highly believable miniature of a Millennium Falcon is just as interesting to me as a locomotive.  If I had the money to get a Fine Art Models CSS Alabama I'd get it too.

What is the value of any painting or a sculpture or other art?  There are many people who wouldn't pay $10 for the Mona Lisa just as a painting but the market for art says something very different.  The value to me is in the artistry and craftsmanship.

A valuable painting or a Ferrari or brass trains may just be a toys to you, but not to me.

Isn't that what is wonderful about this hobby? You and I couldn't be more opposite on most of the points you made, but here we are enjoying the same hobby I'm a nut that wants smoke and sound units in my 2 rail steam engines regardless of what materials they are constructed from. But I can appreciate your affection for fine scale models.

Actually, I've long contended that brass train collecting was really a different hobby from the people who build and operate layouts. Still trains, but very different priorities even if there is some overlap.

You probably know this, but if you like racing automobiles or scale models in general take a look at Exoto models http://www.exoto.com/ they are some of the most intricate and amazing miniatures that I've ever seen.