Just wondering about what led to the price fall on post war trains?

The market is flooded. Many of the older folks who collected these trains are downsizing, moving into assisted living, or even passing on. Their heirs, for the most part, don't have an interest in the stuff. There is just a lot of supply, with not as much demand these days. With few exceptions, at any time, I can go on EBay and easily find anything I want. The days of hard to find post-war train chasing with inflated prices are pretty much gone.

ChooChoo1972 posted:

The market is flooded. Many of the older folks who collected these trains are downsizing, moving into assisted living, or even passing on. Their heirs, for the most part, don't have an interest in the stuff. There is just a lot of supply, with not as much demand these days. With few exceptions, at any time, I can go on EBay and easily find anything I want. The days of hard to find post-war train chasing with inflated prices are pretty much gone.

Well I never thought about that.But sounds right because I been to a few trains shows.And heard people trying to sale their uncle trains or granddad trains.Or a friends trains for some extra cash.

I also feel that the improvements in technology really made a major difference for the first time sound effects were very realistic and the engine detail has much improved over the years that drove the prices down on the older pre and post war engines car and even accessories due to the enhanced sound effects and much more detail in all the trains and accessories. its good if someone don't care so much about the sound effects and details as the price has dropped tremendously so it becomes easier for some one to get started at a lower cost! I'm hooked on Lionel and MTh steam engine and love the detail and effects!

Alan

It is supply and demand at work. The supply may be about the same, but the demand has gone down.

The age group that grew up with Lionel Postwar trains is getting smaller every day. Those folks (myself included) are getting into their 70s and 80s now. Their trains just aren't as important to them as they once were. And, as ChooChoo1972 said, many folks in that age group are downsizing, selling off their collections, moving to assisted living centers, dealing health issues and generally getting out of the hobby in their final years.

The demand is also negatively influenced by the current generation. They didn't grow up with these old trains, so they don't have the nostalgic connection with them that older folks do. Postwar trains are also much too "low tech" for the younger generation to find interesting.

Supply & Demand for sure but also the Postwar trains are more like toys to me instead of the scale models that are produced today.  Its not just the tech (but that is definitely a factor), but the detail of todays trains that interest me.  Its night & day.  I'm a scale modeler/runner, not a collector, so Postwar has never interested me at all and all the friends I have that are into trains are the same way.  I think Postwar trains are more about nostalgia and that is leaving as each generation passes.  So now there are tons of postwar trains available and prices drop (great news for postwar collectors though). 

First - the "electrification" of the market...i.e. - eBay. Before the internet - nobody really knew how much product was out there - resulting in unrealistic supply/demand ratio...and unrealistic prices.

Another factor - I like to call "The Greenberg Effect" - Before the internet, Greenberg Guides were more or less setting the market prices based solely on their "authority" - and the  market, as they saw it.

If you had a small collection of trains - and picked up a Greenberg guide in the early late 70s-80s - you might think you were rich!!! If you had a big collection - you might think you could retire!

Hyper-inflated valuations led to a "bunker" mentality - where guys held on to these items - since they seemed to be worth so much. Once that dam burst - you had a market flooded with product. And since the market was becoming increasingly electronic and aware of product supply - prices fell.

For sure collections have been coming and going for decades - its not really about the collectors aging out - its the fact they all sat on this stuff because they thought it was worth 10s of thousands of dollars...and today might be worth a few hundred.

All things "collectible" are cyclical-ups and downs so enjoy what you collect.

The demand and prices on most antiques and collectables are down. I've read about in various antique magazines. Right now Antiques Roadshow is running a series of episodes where they show a old program and update the prices to today's market. Its interesting to see which items are down, up, or level. In general it seems that larger items have a better chance of dropping in value. I guess people just don't have the space. For the most part, wall art seems to continue to appreciate.

So far, high quality and/or truly rare Lionel items are still bringing plenty of money. It's the common stuff in so-so condition (or restored) that is becoming more difficult to sell and dropping in price. That stuff was selling at overly inflated prices before.

C W Burfle posted:

The demand and prices on most antiques and collectables are down. I've read about in various antique magazines. Right now Antiques Roadshow is running a series of episodes where they show a old program and update the prices to today's market. Its interesting to see which items are down, up, or level. In general it seems that larger items have a better chance of dropping in value. I guess people just don't have the space. For the most part, wall art seems to continue to appreciate.

So far, high quality and/or truly rare Lionel items are still bringing plenty of money. It's the common stuff in so-so condition (or restored) that is becoming more difficult to sell and dropping in price. That stuff was selling at overly inflated prices before.

That's pretty much spot on. I grew up in the antique business. My parents did the big shows in Brimfield, Albany, Ann Arbor, Danbury, Burton, DC, and more than I can remember.  In the 70s and 80s Folk Art and Country was king - Amish quilts at incredible values. Today - you can't give that stuff away. The new rage is "Mid-Century Modern" "Steampunk" or "Industrial" - that's where the money is - because that's what rich guys are buying. And yeah - I've put a moratorium on big things!

I think the upper strata of high quality post-war still exists, its just a much thinner layer - and can still command hefty, if not mind-blowing prices. (thinking of the $20,000 #60 Trolley)

It's not just postwar trains, it's "collecting" in general, be it old advertising tin cans or vintage radios. In the old days, a collector wanted one of everything. Now, a few examples in pristine condition will do. These will be displayed on a shelf, rather than being stored in a closet, attic, basement, or rented storage unit.

Yes, nostlagia plays a part, as well as inflated prices in "price guides". Price guides are good for 2 things...selling price guides, and making collector feel "rich" (until they try to sell). I've been buying old sand pails and cap guns on eBay for 1/3rd the "price guide" values.

Wow!All are very fair points you guys have made.Anyway keep them coming.I like to thank all who have reply to my question.

OGR Webmaster posted:

It is supply and demand at work. The supply may be about the same, but the demand has gone down.

The age group that grew up with Lionel Postwar trains is getting smaller every day. Those folks (myself included) are getting into their 70s and 80s now. Their trains just aren't as important to them as they once were. And, as ChooChoo1972 said, many folks in that age group are downsizing, selling off their collections, moving to assisted living centers, dealing health issues and generally getting out of the hobby in their final years.

The demand is also negatively influenced by the current generation. They didn't grow up with these old trains, so they don't have the nostalgic connection with them that older folks do. Postwar trains are also much too "low tech" for the younger generation to find interesting.

Rich, I'm in my late 40's and I'm nuts about postwar stuff, I wonder how this forum could compile a list for all to see what the age gap might be, and if there is a proverbial line in the sand, so to speak...Am I just an oddity? or are there some younger guys that are still seeking postwar stuff....I agree with the fella's above, I buy and sell postwar too, (its a way to feed my addiction)....common well worn pieces, are getting harder and harder to move. Good quality, clean pieces are still bringing descent money. 

Fewer collectors of anything, more single piece items rather that large complete collections. Kids (now young adults) are into the cards and games and downsized living.

harmonyards posted:

OGR Webmaster posted:

It is supply and demand at work. The supply may be about the same, but the demand has gone down.

The age group that grew up with Lionel Postwar trains is getting smaller every day. Those folks (myself included) are getting into their 70s and 80s now. Their trains just aren't as important to them as they once were. And, as ChooChoo1972 said, many folks in that age group are downsizing, selling off their collections, moving to assisted living centers, dealing health issues and generally getting out of the hobby in their final years.

The demand is also negatively influenced by the current generation. They didn't grow up with these old trains, so they don't have the nostalgic connection with them that older folks do. Postwar trains are also much too "low tech" for the younger generation to find interesting.

Rich, I'm in my late 40's and I'm nuts about postwar stuff, I wonder how this forum could compile a list for all to see what the age gap might be, and if there is a proverbial line in the sand, so to speak...Am I just an oddity? or are there some younger guys that are still seeking postwar stuff....I agree with the fella's above, I buy and sell postwar too, (its a way to feed my addiction)....common well worn pieces, are getting harder and harder to move. Good quality, clean pieces are still bringing descent money. 

Rich, and other posters above are generally correct in their assessment of the age demographics . Nonetheless, you are not an oddity. I'm 46 and primarily a postwar collector with a postwar style Super O layout.  

I work weekends at our LHS handling service. We have a surprising number of folks who come walking in with an interest in postwar, with many even younger than me. Many want to service or expand their dad's collection.

At the same time most of these guys, including me, also have an interest in modern era equipment to satisfy the appetite for technology. For my part, I keep the Legacy base, TIU, AIU's, WIU and other tech secretly hidden under the table so everything looks 1950's.

Supply vs. Demand......simple

Rich, I'm in my late 40's and I'm nuts about postwar stuff, I wonder how this forum could compile a list for all to see what the age gap might be, and if there is a proverbial line in the sand, so to speak...Am I just an oddity? or are there some younger guys that are still seeking postwar stuff....I agree with the fella's above, I buy and sell postwar too, (its a way to feed my addiction)....common well worn pieces, are getting harder and harder to move. Good quality, clean pieces are still bringing descent money.

Yes, there are younger folks into trains too. We have some teenagers participating on this very board.

While nostalgia play are role in collecting, it's importance is much overblown. It is one of any number of things that can drive a persons interest in collecting a certain class of item.
Stamps and coins continue to be popular collectables. What sort of nostalgia would one have for them?

I'm 40 and have school busses and attics full of postwar. I have been buying it since I could push mow lawns. I live in upper Michigan with no train stores for hundreds of  miles. There was no internet. I made small payments to a small shop ran by an old guy in Janesville WI.  Larry and Phyl's ice cream and hobby. Bought a barrel loader, milk set, a oil derrick and more from him when I was 10 or 11 from lawns. I still have no interest in newer trains. At least not much.

Matt

The market is cyclical as are most markets historically. Many younger folks either don't have a passionate interest in collecting or the time, cash to do it, or all three. The young age demographic are utilizing their money to start a family, pay off college debt, start a career, etc. while the older age group as said is downsizing, passing on, and selling off much of what they've accumulated thru the years leaving the "empty nesters group as the primary collectors of today. When, if, and to what extent the train collecting market will have an uptick is unknown and for the future to tell.

C W Burfle posted:

We have some teenagers participating on this very board.

That's me!

Jagrick posted:

Kids (now young adults) are into the cards and games and downsized living.

I'm not sure what you mean by cards--trading? Gaming for sure, not me, but most of my friends do. I just don't understand downsided living--small house=small/no basement=small/no layout=sad; big house=big basement=big layout=happy.

And for the record, I love Legacy and am looking to try DCS, but I love postwar stuff, too! And since I want to build my postwar fleet up a little more, maybe this is a good thing.

Not only supply and demand but features.  Those of us who grew up slinging the handles of a ZW still enjoy the smell of ozone and the buzz of an e unit but the sight and sound of a new model with the ability to control from anywhere has great appeal.  I won't be buying any postwar stuff ever again.  I will keep the few pieces I still have but have already warned my two sons these are not all that valuable so do not expect to get rich off of them when I am no longer here.

I just don't understand downsided living--small house=small/no basement=small/no layout=sad;
big house=big basement=big layout=happy.

You would easily if you lived in NY, NJ, Ma, etc. where big house = big taxes and not much in retirement if you stay status quoe!

prrhorseshoecurve posted:

I just don't understand downsided living--small house=small/no basement=small/no layout=sad;
big house=big basement=big layout=happy.

You would easily if you lived in NY, NJ, Ma, etc. where big house = big taxes and not much in retirement if you stay status quoe!

And also SE PA. high taxes, both local, county, state, and school taxes abound. In some suburban PA school districts Of Bucks Co. for example, it's not uncommon for annual tax bill on an average, median tax assessed home to be in the  $10,000 - $15,000+ range. If you live in an average home in your area and your tax bill is less, be thankful!

Don't see how folks can stand taxes like that! THat's ****ing $$ away that could be better allocated to your layout!

Come move to these mountains - much lower taxes and many homes have basements. And it was 63 degrees this morning  in August...

Lots of great comments here thus far.

The only think I'd like to add... We can't underestimate the fact that postwar trains were desirable because they had a very finite, well-defined period of production.  AND folks who may have missed out on them as children now had a chance to grab some very nice pieces in great condition -- albeit at premium prices.  The FM Train Master locomotives are a great example.  They often sold for under $65/each in the 1950's and 1960's, and by the 1980's the rarer models were commanding 10X-15X that number.    But that's largely because they weren't being made anymore.  True... Lionel started re-issuing some conventional models in the 1980's (at roughly $150), but the more rare road-names and variations from postwar still held their values.

By the 1990's, the technology treadmill kicked into high gear.  And we began seeing command-control locomotives with better sounds, and more details.  And we've yet to step off the technology treadmill.  Although advances are somewhat more incremental now, it's still there -- and has its effect each and every time a re-issued model obsoletes an earlier offering.

Add to all of this the fact that the demographics of our hobby are changing day by day, month by month -- be it aging, health issues, downsizing, whatever... all the stuff mentioned in earlier posts -- and I think you can see everything coming into focus:  it's a "perfect storm" of sorts that has resulted in much, MUCH lower demand for postwar Lionel trains.

Think of it this way... if you visit the Allentown ATMA show twice a year, you'll see guys hauling tables upon TABLES of old post-war trains in and out of the halls every show.  (Presumably the same phenomenon happens at York too, but I spend all of my time in the dealer halls.)  People are finally realizing the amount of space their trains are occupying -- whether on layouts, display shelves, or storage closets.  And there's just no more room for anything but the most desirable pieces that fancy enthusiasts at any given point in time.  A like it or not, postwar trains just don't rank high on most peoples "buy" lists nowadays.

I'm not too sure it's strictly a toy vs. scale thing either, because Standard Gauge Tinplate has a toy-like charm all to it's own.  And I sense a call pulling me in that direction at times.  Not enough to operate them at the expense of real-estate on my newest O-Gauge train layout, but tinplate has a special charm even if it's just for display purposes.  Stay tuned in a few months, and I'll show you what the custom-builders ended up doing with Standard Gauge displays built into my O-Gauge toy-themed layout.    The colors will jump out at visitors like a feast for the senses.  Can't wait to share it with everyone. 

So while postwar demand may be down, I wouldn't write off the toy-like charm of our modern-day trains just yet to pure scale interests!    Toy vs. scale is certainly part of the reason the postwar models have seen better heydays.  But a well-built, toy-themed layout (with a mix of old and new technologies) can still deliver quite the WOW-factor in its own right. 

David

Your last statement is exactly what I'm building on my layout Mr.David, it's a mix of detailed buildings,scenery, weathered cars, etc......but add a bubbling oil Derrick and a switch tower where the man can fly down a flight of stairs faster than an Olympic sprinter 

seaboardm2 posted:

. . . I have noticed the asking price for postwar trains has fallen.    . . . any insights on this?

---

Whatever the reason(s), lack of demand.  Capitalism 101.

Pete

c.sam posted:

Don't see how folks can stand taxes like that! THat's ****ing $$ away that could be better allocated to your layout!

Come move to these mountains - much lower taxes and many homes have basements. And it was 63 degrees this morning  in August...

 

I would love to move to NC Sam. But I can't get the wife out of Indiana.

Rich, your right. I saw it in 40's, 50's then 60's and 70's cars. The group that wanted a car from their teen years bought them. When they grew tired of fixing them or just didn't want them anymore they were sold at a fraction of the original price. I'm selling all my old Lionel stuff that I loved twenty years ago. I bought everything I always wanted in those late 40's and 50's Lionel catalogs. Why let them sit in boxes and never enjoy them? I just run three rail scale stuff now. People in their thirties can't related to trains from my period so they don't buy them. Don

Many comments describing symptoms and results, but the cause can be stated in two words, which Roving Sign nailed obliquely (ouch, my thumb!) in his first sentence: the Internet.  So whether you are a seller and your trains are worth less or a buyer and your trains are more affordable, you can thank Al Gore. 

What, me worry? 

scale rail posted:

Rich, your right. I saw it in 40's, 50's then 60's and 70's cars. The group that wanted a car from their teen years bought them. When they grew tired of fixing them or just didn't want them anymore they were sold at a fraction of the original price. I'm selling all my old Lionel stuff that I loved twenty years ago. I bought everything I always wanted in those late 40's and 50's Lionel catalogs. Why let them sit in boxes and never enjoy them? I just run three rail scale stuff now. People in their thirties can't related to trains from my period so they don't buy them. Don

I'm still waiting for info on the Madison cars. But I'm 40 so I'm interested!

The train market is shifting from collecting to operating. The new models with command control, cruise control, and can motors operate more realistically and at slower speeds than the postwar rocket ships that slowed down in the curves, sped down the straights, and threatened to fly off the rails at the neck-snappingly tight O-27 and O-31 curves.

I agree with the posters above there is just not enough young people that are interested in post war or  most collectibles any more. I am over 55 and have been buying O scale things for last few years and the post war has never appealed to me they look too toy like. The only things  I buy are scale pieces and thats it no railking and definitely no post war. As time goes on I think things will drop even more. I have been scaling back buying newer items just because of this. 

Lots of post-war stuff going real cheap at our monthly club meetings.  Northwest = low demand I guess.

MATTR, your too young for the Madison cars. Don

I expect to tear the layout down and rebuild when I move, it will NOT have post war items operating on it, those will be left on a shelf.  Where to move is a different issue for another forum.  Yes we in the NE pay high taxes and receive basically nothing.  But NYC with all of its wonders is 40 minutes away.  Locally there is live music, food, theater, choices abound and getting to them requires nothing more that a what do you want to do tonight.   I will miss all of that if and when I leave the peoples republic of NJ for other parts .  Hopefully a mid sized city like Charlotte NC will provide the proper balance.  If not Charlotte SC, Savannah, Columbia, Tuscon are all in play.

All good reasons here, I think. For me, and what got me back in the hobby a few years ago was command control, details, selection and everything else we have to choose from these days. I lost interest in the PW stuff over 50 years ago, but the modern stuff really is exciting, IMO, and it's what I wanted to fiddle with in retirement. I have also always been interested in electronics. Probably should have pursued that when I got out of HS, but took a different path which I also ended up enjoying, but I'm sure glad it's finished now!!

Sure some of the comments above about the decrease in the value of the the post war market have contributed to it.

I strongly believe the major contributor to the decline of value is the internet, especially ebay . Prior to the internet and ebay, if you wanted a special item whether it was Lionel, baseball cards, classic cars, motorcycles, antiques etc..... You had to beat the bushes or know some one who knew someone that had what your were looking for. After the internet, SHAZAMM everything that was rare, all of sudden became very common. During the infancy of ebay, example, if you did a search in ebay for a Lionel postwar 2056 steam engine, you were lucky if two popped up, now you do a search for the same engine, BAMMM...... 10 to 20 will pop up. 

Yes.... the internet (ebay) leveled the supply and demand playing field.

Hey OGAUGEGUY we must be neighbors 

I live in Holland just outside of Newtown 

My kids went to Council Rock schools --- they all got great educations and are off and running --- worth every dime

Wife wants to leave but I'm not sure --- yes taxes etc. are not cheap but business is great

Have to figure out a way to take my NE salary to Charleston SC --- have a daughter there and my wife loves it

PS --- I really don't care what happens with prices I still love my postwar ����

One item that seems to be running counter to this trend is the Lionel 1950 773. I held out for a long time before buying one. I got it about a year and a half ago on the Bay. It was in beautiful shape and cost me $650.  At that time, there were a lot of them being sold for around that price (with the '64 version, of course, going for less). Lately, they are going for more than twice that price. Glad I got mine when I did.

Roger