Just wondering about what led to the price fall on post war trains?

I kind of compaire old trains to old cars.

My old 56 BelAir captures allot of attention. Yes, nostalgia a big part but many times approached by a younger audience that falls in love with a car they didn't grow up with.  interesting.

Trains, especially post WW2, analog, easy even for the 5th grader to understand. New trains, solid state, the difference between a relay and a transistor. I can work on my old Chevy stock car but not these new cars.

But back to trains. What five year old can afford a $2,500 modern day engine? Its not a hobby for kids like for us old people. Its not 1955 anymore. No wonder this generation isn't into them. I like conventional, 1/2 the cost and even I can work on em.

Anyway, do what makes u happy. Cant take it with u.

@EdA posted:

But back to trains. What five year old can afford a $2,500 modern day engine? Its not a hobby for kids like for us old people. Its not 1955 anymore. No wonder this generation isn't into them. I like conventional, 1/2 the cost and even I can work on em.

Anyway, do what makes u happy. Cant take it with u.

What 5 year old in the mid/late 1950's could afford $50 for a set of F3's?

Rusty

@prrhorseshoecurve posted:

I just don't understand downsided living--small house=small/no basement=small/no layout=sad;
big house=big basement=big layout=happy.

You would easily if you lived in NY, NJ, Ma, etc. where big house = big taxes and not much in retirement if you stay status quoe!

It is not only taxes that leads too downsizing.  The kids are gone so the big house is empty.  Parents often think that their kids will be home for the holidays.  That doesn't always work out.  This leads parents to sell the big house to move closer to their kids/grandkids.  The desire to be near the grandkids is often the deciding factor.  

Maintenance costs for a big house that a family has lived in for 30+ years are constantly rising - new roof, new paint, new plumbing, new appliances, new lawn, wood rot, etc.  Heating and cooling costs are generally higher for a big house than a smaller house.  Who wants to mow a large lawn every week during the summer or shovel snow in the winter when you are 60+ years old?  All of these costs affect people on a retirement income.  Unless they have invested wisely, most retirees have very little chance of significantly increasing their income over time.  Social security cost of living increases just doesn't do it.  

Another factor is that retirees often want to travel.  They don't want to leave a big house sitting empty while they spend weeks on the road.  Many retirees embrace the RV/travel life style even when they have a primary home.  This makes a condo or a gated retirement community where they don't have maintenance worries especially attractive.  They can lock their door and just leave.  

NH Joe

I have noticed that people begin to get nostalgic for the totems of their youth when they are in their 40s. This jibes with the general recycling of and nostalgia for fashion and pop culture after about a 25 year span. Many early boomers- the postwar Lionel generation- got interested in Lionel trains again in the late 80s and 90s. ( myself included) So that became the peak era of postwar collectors. I have now moved on to prewar because it was never really about the trains- it was about trying to recapture some elusive feeling or memory.

My son collects video games ( got his first video game in the late 80s). He does a brisk business on Ebay buying and selling them. I have no doubt that in another 25 years that market will be much smaller and something else will take it's place.

Wow, this thread had its origin in August of 2017, a little over three years ago and as Rich Melvin said, “Supply and Demand”, the correct answer. I am a young 76 years old, grew up in the 50’s, loved those Lionel trains, (F3’s, GG1’s, 773’s, 736’s, 671’s, aluminum passenger cars, heavyweight passenger cars, loads of great accessories) and the war then was, American Flyer said” 2 rail “was more realistic, Lionel sold the Sizzle, the sizzle still remains with Lionel. Ta Da, now, it was those postwar trains that started the locomotion, but, we grew up, we could sit back and run our trains and our minds were thinking of different settings our trains were going through, oh those were the Days..... Another saying, “Change is Constant”, which is the new reality. Sometimes we have issues with change, but from 2017 fast forwarded to 12-2020, this is the best of times. If our manufacturers hadn’t changed with the times, where would our hobby be? Yes, conventional operation of our trains was fun, but now, with Legacy command, DCS command, operating our trains is, in my thinking, a more realistic way, much more fun. So, it’s really up to the individual what he or she likes, Scale, Toy, or a mixture of both. Now for an answer to the title, belonging to both the LCCA, TCA, and seeing there sale advertisements, you can see a lot of all trains for sale. Yes, a 1950 773 versus a 2010 VisionLine Hudson, or a 2004/2005 K-Line hudson, who knows, each is desirable, price is governed on availability. One thing for certain, a toy train collection may not hold a retirement value, you need to invest 401K’s, Roth IRA’s, talk to investment firms, things change. So, the old 700e Hudson that Lionel made in 1937 may be a great find, it won’t operate like the new VisionLine NYC hudson. I’m hoping to see this hobby continue on for many years. The most fun hobby in the World. Our OGR Forum is one of our best forms of communicating our thoughts. Happy Railroading Everyone, and Merry Christmas to all.

@Rusty Traque posted:

What 5 year old in the mid/late 1950's could afford $50 for a set of F3's?

Rusty

The answer is none of them.

This is an expensive hobby. Always has been.

Another issue:  Could a parent, adult, or mature child have the skill sets needed just to put an oval of track together?

Lou, those parents that bought a $50 train in the 50's can still run their trains. Could you even think a $1500-2000 engine will still run in 60 years? I have a Santa Fe set from the early 50's and heck I still have my original set (2026) from 1948, they still run. New I phones are over $2000 now will be dumped in a few years because they can't be fixed. I stopped buying new trains when K-line went out of business, I saw the hand writing on the wall. Electronics don't last. What is that stereo quad amp from the 70's worth, or that Betamax worth today? I sold a 1950 773 and a F-3 southern set to buy my first Beta video recorder. don

I jumped off the new wagon quite a few years ago I got tired of the prices, the poor quality control. Yes I know prices have always been high for the times.

But I have decided to go back where I started and that was 1970 and the MPC era. All my electronic engines are gone and I have buying trains, mostly engines from the MPC era and even though they are 35+ years old They still run great and I can fix them if needed.

Nothing against anybody who loves the newer trains but I am much happier with what I'm doing now. Lets go run some trains!!

Dave

I note that Tommy F mentioned Jim Beam back in 2017.

Did anyone happen to purchase the Jim Beam large scale decanter set when it first appeared on the market?  Wonder what a set brings today with the cars sealed, e.i. contents still intact?

@scale rail posted:

Could you even think a $1500-2000 engine will still run in 60 years?

Folks nowadays don't think that far ahead.  How many on this forum keep clamoring for more and more electronic wizardry to be crammed into their trains.

Rusty

My cut of for buying Lionel is when the Pul-Mor was replaced with a sealed can motor and production moved overseas.  My 1990 era 1-700e runs flawlessly, whether the sound works or not(which it does work).  As long as that big AC motor is back there in the cab and a E unit under the boiler shell, they will run and parts are out there to keep them that way.  I can remove that early sound and put a diecast air whistle in there if i so desire, or update to newer RS2.5 sound that was pre TMCC.  The new stuff is nice but frought with intermitten zinc pest issues, electrioncs that we know will not last for generations and constsant quality control issues that come and go without a pattern.  I came of buying age in the height of the postwar boom for collecting in the 1990's, prices were very high for even good clean unboxed post and prewar.  Then as we get closer to current times, collectors get tapped out and start passing on.  So the market not only slows down but gets flooded more and more with their estates as families sell off what they have no interest in.  Its been a great time to be buying right now if these trains are your "taste"   I have even had complete unboxed postwar sets given to me just to make them go to someone that will enjoy them.   While barn/attic fresh, a wee bit of time cleaning and servicing yield another reliable Lionel set that will endure for many more years to come.     Trains have always been expensive, be it prewar/postwar or modern era.  Many folks today have no clue how little the rates of pay were back in the 30's, 40's or 50's when these were new.   My Dad's Lionel set 1423w, a lowly 1655 starter set was $29.95 back in 1948.  That was a week's pay for my grandfather, who worked on the assembly line at Frigidare, then a division of GM.  So a good union job for that era.  So consider this, most families were single income back then, dad worked and mom raised the kids and took care of the house.  We know what the catalog prices were so we can imagine how long it took dad to set aside a little bit from each paycheck for that 2333/43 Santa Fe set, or Berkshire/Turbine set that was even more than my dads lower end set.  The big difference is those trains were ment to last, to be repairable and kept running.  Todays starter sets are disposable for the most part when you look at the build quality and lack of parts many times.  Thats just how today's society is, when it breaks we trash it and buy something else.   Back in the 40's/50's you could fix it your self or take it to a nearby service center to be repaired in a timely manner.     AD

I would LOVE to buy used, modern, hi-tech locos for one fourth the price (or even less) due to having fried circuit boards.

A can motor, a headlight, a re-built smoke unit, an electronic reverse unit, and a simple sound board is all I would need, and I can undoubtedly re-build and/or install that stuff myself.

I could easily live without all the rest of that expensive circuitry and gimmickry. 

@artfull dodger posted:

The big difference is those trains were ment to last, to be repairable and kept running.

Technology in the 50's also wasn't changing on a daily basis (practically) or stomping over everything like it is today.  Had there been rapid advances in affordable and miniaturized technology, no doubt Lionel, Gilbert and others would have included such advances in their products.

Rusty

250,000 Covid deaths may have had something to do with it.

I’ve often wondered, too, if the reason PW prices are coming down is due to more folks coming into the hobby wanting the realistic looking, near scale items currently being produced over what they consider the toy-like PW and pre-War trains:  perhaps they had HO trains in their youth and want their larger trains to have the detail and realism they associated with the smaller gauge trains.  Passenger silhouettes in windows vs. detailed interiors is but one example that comes to mind.  Of course, with more detail and digital functions — I have some HO locomotives with 35 functions alone — prices rise accordingly.  I’m actually happy to see prices drop for the earlier stuff:  as noted in previous comments above, I don’t need an advanced degree in electronics to repair the stuff or program it all... I can just play with it!

For me- handheld, walkaround  control, AND cruise. 

Big supply from estate sales and low demand (buyers prefer scale, not semi-scale).

Lew Schneider

@scale rail posted:

Lou, those parents that bought a $50 train in the 50's can still run their trains. Could you even think a $1500-2000 engine will still run in 60 years? I have a Santa Fe set from the early 50's and heck I still have my original set (2026) from 1948, they still run. New I phones are over $2000 now will be dumped in a few years because they can't be fixed. I stopped buying new trains when K-line went out of business, I saw the hand writing on the wall. Electronics don't last. What is that stereo quad amp from the 70's worth, or that Betamax worth today? I sold a 1950 773 and a F-3 southern set to buy my first Beta video recorder. don

I believe that the current expensive trains will still be running in 60 years because the basics are there - great detail, authentic paint schemes, good motors, frames, wheels, etc.  (Yes, some may have zinc pest but most of them won't.)  The engines will just be upgraded with the newest technology which will be some sort of battery control in my opinion.

Just look at what Sam Parfitt does to upgrade old HO brass engines on his Great Northern thread on this forum.  I have many HO friends who have installed new motors and DCC in brass engines and they still run fine.  Some of them are upgrading 50 year old Athearn plastic engines to DCC and super detailing them.  

Link to Sam's tread:  https://ogrforum.com/...7#152477234428527697

NH Joe

@Trinity River Bottoms Boomer posted:

I note that Tommy F mentioned Jim Beam back in 2017.

Did anyone happen to purchase the Jim Beam large scale decanter set when it first appeared on the market?  Wonder what a set brings today with the cars sealed, e.i. contents still intact?

I sold a Jim Beam set at a pre-Covid charity auction for $150.  About half of the train's decanters were still sealed.  The buyer was going to use the train as a display piece.  NH Joe

I'm totally into post war now. Have been into HO,N, and O gauge over the years. Now at 77 years old I've really enjoyed post war trains. No longer interested in command control ect. Price, ease of repair and , yes, nostalgia all make post war attractive to me. I'm not really into operations or modeling so that also affected my decision to go back to post war. As far as price? Well, I'm not one who has followed the trends but if you factor inflation in that $50 set back in '50 would  be like $500 +/- today. I have a set from 1952 that I wouldn't sell for less than $550 and that's without boxes.

If any of the really modern engines are still running 40 years from now, they will only be running on conventional transformer control.

Why?  Because they are super hi-tech, chip board, and software dependent, and technology is now advancing so fast that what is new today is totally obsolete 5 years from now.  Most people will be throwing them in the trash 10 years from now, just like the Samsung Galaxy 6 Smart Phones they bought 8 years ago for $800.

Todays young adults don't want to repair anything, even it the item is repairable.  (Not to mention the fact that they don't know "how" to repair anything.)   To them, the "proper" thing to do with an obsolete or broken item is to toss it in a recycle bin at Costco, along with the hundreds of other items in the bin.

Any person who has a Lionel Superchief Plus 2.0 engine 40 years from now, will probably have it sitting in a glass case alongside a Vic Commodore 64 Computer.

Mannyrock

@leapinlarry posted:

Wow, this thread had its origin in August of 2017, a little over three years ago and as Rich Melvin said, “Supply and Demand”, the correct answer. I am a young 76 years old, grew up in the 50’s, loved those Lionel trains, (F3’s, GG1’s, 773’s, 736’s, 671’s, aluminum passenger cars, heavyweight passenger cars, loads of great accessories) and the war then was, American Flyer said” 2 rail “was more realistic, Lionel sold the Sizzle, the sizzle still remains with Lionel. Ta Da, now, it was those postwar trains that started the locomotion, but, we grew up, we could sit back and run our trains and our minds were thinking of different settings our trains were going through, oh those were the Days..... Another saying, “Change is Constant”, which is the new reality. Sometimes we have issues with change, but from 2017 fast forwarded to 12-2020, this is the best of times. If our manufacturers hadn’t changed with the times, where would our hobby be? Yes, conventional operation of our trains was fun, but now, with Legacy command, DCS command, operating our trains is, in my thinking, a more realistic way, much more fun. So, it’s really up to the individual what he or she likes, Scale, Toy, or a mixture of both. Now for an answer to the title, belonging to both the LCCA, TCA, and seeing there sale advertisements, you can see a lot of all trains for sale. Yes, a 1950 773 versus a 2010 VisionLine Hudson, or a 2004/2005 K-Line hudson, who knows, each is desirable, price is governed on availability. One thing for certain, a toy train collection may not hold a retirement value, you need to invest 401K’s, Roth IRA’s, talk to investment firms, things change. So, the old 700e Hudson that Lionel made in 1937 may be a great find, it won’t operate like the new VisionLine NYC hudson. I’m hoping to see this hobby continue on for many years. The most fun hobby in the World. Our OGR Forum is one of our best forms of communicating our thoughts. Happy Railroading Everyone, and Merry Christmas to all.

Love your passion, Leapinlarry.

@Mannyrock posted:

250,000 Covid deaths may have had something to do with it.

Really???

@Pre-War Steve posted:

I’ve often wondered, too, if the reason PW prices are coming down is due to more folks coming into the hobby wanting the realistic looking, near scale items currently being produced over what they consider the toy-like PW and pre-War trains:  perhaps they had HO trains in their youth and want their larger trains to have the detail and realism they associated with the smaller gauge trains.  Passenger silhouettes in windows vs. detailed interiors is but one example that comes to mind.  Of course, with more detail and digital functions — I have some HO locomotives with 35 functions alone — prices rise accordingly.  I’m actually happy to see prices drop for the earlier stuff:  as noted in previous comments above, I don’t need an advanced degree in electronics to repair the stuff or program it all... I can just play with it!

For dome of us, the HO experience can be spelled in 4 letters:  TYCO!  HO Tinplate!

Tyco... and Athearn and Roundhouse kits!  Lots of memories there for sure Dominic.  Happy to say I’ve still got most of them... and they’re still running!

Oh man. Every time someone brings up postwar people jump in with the "modern trains are trash and won't run in 10 years". Here we go. Almost 25 year old TMCC F3. Ran it for two hours today under TMCC without issue. Starts right up and runs fine every time I use it. Well past its supposed 10 year expiration date.

I also ran one of my MTH Premier Santa Fe Hudsons for 2 hours today under DCS. It's almost 15 years old. Always starts with no issue.

Turns out new stuff runs just fine years later. I can also fix it if it breaks. I took the time to learn how to repair new stuff. It's not black magic. Just need a soldering iron and a screwdriver. Just like postwar 😉.

@ChooChoo1972 posted:

The market is flooded. Many of the older folks who collected these trains are downsizing, moving into assisted living, or even passing on. Their heirs, for the most part, don't have an interest in the stuff. There is just a lot of supply, with not as much demand these days. With few exceptions, at any time, I can go on EBay and easily find anything I want. The days of hard to find post-war train chasing with inflated prices are pretty much gone.

I think it really is that simple. A combination of economics and demographics.

I can't stand the new stuff.

Feeling nostalgic about the old pw trains my dad has I asked my wife for a lionel train set for our first married Christmas.   I got this western themed steam engine set that worked for one Christmas around the tree and now the Chineese made pos doesn't move and only lights up.  The train store said there is something wrong with the board.  Garbage

My grandfathers 1952 lionel pw steam engine still works unlike the steam engine my wife bought me. I've since been scoping out and buying more pw stuff.  At 40 I love the pw stuff...the trains, the accessories and plasticville buildings and hopefully make a nice small layout to get it all working.

As a kid I liked using a transformer with the zw controls and not some light guage plastic remote like they sell now.

I guess I'm easy because I love both Postwar and modern.

No question, postwar from the late 1940s to the mid-1950s has charm and amazing durability, reliability and fixability.

Some of my modern seems just as durable, having run flawlessly for approximately 25 years, with better smoke and sounds which enhance its charm.. However,  some of my modern has had problems.

These problems include a few engines whose circuit boards became fried. Lately, I run my trains more carefully and have tuned my layout to eliminate that problem for over 5 years.

The other problem with some of my modern is that the smoke no longer works. Since good smoke is my favorite feature, this is a little upsetting, especially because I do not know how to fix it, and don't dare trying to do so for fear I might make the problem worse.

I know it is important to never run a modern smoking engine without at least a few drops of smoke fluid in it before starting up, and I always use the fluid made by the manufacturer of the engine: Lionel Premium for Lionel locomotives, and MTH (coffee is my current favorite scent) for MTH engines.

Down the road, after Covid, I might hire an expert to fix the smoke on a few of my modern locomotives.

Incidentally, some of my modern engines have had highly durable smoke units that have run flawlessly for over 25 years. When I want smoke, I run them.

I also love the Postwar Lionel steamers that take smoke pills. Love the look and smell of their puffs of smoke.

Arnold

One more thing, I think the MTH Z4000 and the Lionel Postwar ZW are both great, but give the edge to the Z4000. I'm not familiar with the modern big Lionel transformer (is it the ZW-L?).

@Mannyrock posted:

250,000 Covid deaths may have had something to do with it.

Not at all likely, with a US population of approximately 330 million people. That's approximately .075% of the population, an infinitesimal number. By contrast, cancer deaths in the US for 2020 are estimated to be approximately 2 1/2 times that number.

Pat

In other words:

Don't count on model trains (of any kind) for financial security.

Rusty

@leapinlarry posted:

Wow, this thread had its origin in August of 2017, a little over three years ago and as Rich Melvin said, “Supply and Demand”, the correct answer.

I don't think its that simple.  I would chalk part of it up to changing perceptions of supply and demand caused by an inefficient marketplace.  Say there are 100 items out there, 10 are available for purchase and there are 8 potential buyers out there.  If 6 of those buyers can only locate 2 of the 10 items available for purchase, those 2 items will potentially sell for much more than if they could access 5, 6 or especially if they could access all 10.

@Mannyrock posted:

If any of the really modern engines are still running 40 years from now, they will only be running on conventional transformer control.

Why?  Because they are super hi-tech, chip board, and software dependent, and technology is now advancing so fast that what is new today is totally obsolete 5 years from now.  Most people will be throwing them in the trash 10 years from now, just like the Samsung Galaxy 6 Smart Phones they bought 8 years ago for $800.

Todays young adults don't want to repair anything, even it the item is repairable.  (Not to mention the fact that they don't know "how" to repair anything.)   To them, the "proper" thing to do with an obsolete or broken item is to toss it in a recycle bin at Costco, along with the hundreds of other items in the bin.

Any person who has a Lionel Superchief Plus 2.0 engine 40 years from now, will probably have it sitting in a glass case alongside a Vic Commodore 64 Computer.

Mannyrock

Mannyrock,

As long as the control systems stay operable I would expect people to be running tmcc, dcs, and legacy for 20, 30 years or more. As long as power supplies support using these systems they will run.
Even though our engines are controlled by small computers, it is not the same as personal computing. I work in IT and there are still mainframe computers running in some of the world’s largest corporations. Obsolete since 1990’s, they are doing something well enough that it still doesn’t make sense to replace it. Hospitals run a lot of what we would call obsolete computers, there are many reasons for this but the point is they are still functional.

Same problem we are seeing in the tinplate market. Dead people don't by trains. Fewer buyers, more venues for disposing them means a saturation and lower prices.

Scott Smith

Good Points Irish Rifle,

Yet, probably 95% of the quarter million Covid U.S. deaths were people over 60, so even if only one of them in a hundred owned an O Gauge set, either working in the basement or in a box in the attic, that would be over 2,300 sets potentially up for sale, since March of this year.  And that, of course, is on top of any O gauge stuff owned by the half a million or so older folks who have died from causes other than Covid this year.   

All of these numbers are sheer speculation of course, but speculation can be interesting.

Mannyrock

Not just trains folks...........

Cars are flooding the market too. My wife and I just bought a Mustang II Ghia. She has always wanted one and we found a nice one for $1800. Young people do not care for a common 60's or 70's car. Sound familiar??  The car/train hobby people are 'aging out' as such....supply and demand is heavy on the supply side. Wait until the middle of the Baby boomers start aging out.  The few young guys in the hobby will have a field day.

Here is another reason that Modern Engines won't be running 40 years from now:

Their circuit boards won't survive the EMP wave from "The Great Nuclear Missile Incident of 2039."

@Mannyrock posted:

Here is another reason that Modern Engines won't be running 40 years from now:

Their circuit boards won't survive the EMP wave from "The Great Nuclear Missile Incident of 2039."

Yawn. 🥱

Certainly not something I’m concerned with. The form of leukemia I have leaves me with a projected life expectancy of from 5-10 years. My collection will either be in the hands of my youngest son or have sold at auction at least nine years before the “Great Nuclear Missile Incident of 2039.” 😉

Curt