Over the past year, I have been, Building Vintage Kits and restoring a number of both freight and passenger cars from the late 30's to the 70's and how the prices as well as the details changed over the years . I am amazed that a company could produce a wood flat cat kit for $3.50 or a brass kit for under 20.00 , and of course trucks and couplers were extra. What have you guys found?
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50-70 years ago, everything was cheaper.
@Dave Koehler posted:Over the past year, I have been, Building Vintage Kits and restoring a number of both freight and passenger cars from the late 30's to the 70's and how the prices as well as the details changed over the years . I am amazed that a company could produce a wood flat cat kit for $3.50 or a brass kit for under 20.00 , and of course trucks and couplers were extra. What have you guys found?
Using 1938 as a starting point, an online inflation calculator shows a dollar then now being equivalent to $20.50; multiply that times $3.50 and you get $77.35 - about what a highly detailed Atlas O scale wooden reefer car sells for today after a small discount. Silver spot today is $22.15 an ounce - since silver coins were commonly used back then, you would be spending roughly the same amount in silver that the inflation calculator came up with for the 1938 dollar value (keeping in mind that the dime is composed of 90% silver and 10% copper).
@mwb posted:50-70 years ago, everything was cheaper.
just two years ago everything was much cheaper
As others have said, when those things were produced they were done so at the cost and profit level of the time. Over time inflation happens (if it doesn't it generally means the economy is in a standstill or worse), sometimes it is rapid as in the 70's or recently, other times it is steady at some rate. In any event, the general rule of thumb is you can't do a direct price comparison like that. The one exception is where innovation comes into play, the cost of a tv set today is way, way cheaper than the tvs of the 1970's and is obviously loaded with features, and that is using direct dollar (so for example, that 19" color set that cost like 400 bucks back then (prob close to 2500 bucks in todays money) can buy you a HD widescreen display for that 400 (2022 dollars).
And as many have pointed out, whatever time period you can point to, trains were never cheap really.
During the period from 1960 to 2021, the average inflation rate was 3.8% per year. Overall, the price increase was 829.57 %. So, that $20 brass kit should be priced at $165.80 today.
@gunrunnerjohn posted:During the period from 1960 to 2021, the average inflation rate was 3.8% per year. Overall, the price increase was 829.57 %. So, that $20 brass kit should be priced at $165.80 today.
Yes, but that $20 kit from 1960 is hard to sell for much more than $40, if that much. 
@mwb posted:Yes, but that $20 kit from 1960 is hard to sell for much more than $40, if that much.
Which has nothing to do with the discussion on pricing and inflation.
@gunrunnerjohn posted:Which has nothing to do with the discussion on pricing and inflation.
Thanks, GRJ, I guess most people haven't taken basic economics. Generally when we talk about inflation we are talking brand new goods (yes, used things can have inflation, when for example as today thanks to a shortage of new cars, used cars are selling at very high prices, much more than a couple of years ago, bc it is an alternative to a new car, but inflation figures don't count that). Used items are valued at whatever the market will bear and inflation has little to do with it. That 20 dollar kit selling at 40 bucks is what someone will pay for it. Unless the kit was rare, the seller wanting 160 bucks would be laughed out of the room if they tried to argue inflation.
@gunrunnerjohn posted:Which has nothing to do with the discussion on pricing and inflation.
Actually it does since you'll routinely find folks trying to sell stuff using just that kind of reasoning.
Here's a fun little tool:
CPI Inflation Calculator (bls.gov)
Turns out stuff wasn't cheap back then either.
Inflation affects the value of the dollar. Prices or worth of items are affected by supply and demand of the item with time. Most items that are bought, lose their value as they wear out or become obsolete. Some items do not lose their value as much as buyers value them higher than others and the demand is still higher than most other items. These are antiques, classics or unique and many people will pay a premium for these older items, usually those in original or very good condition. Some pre war and post war trains have higher values than when new, but those in lessor quality and condition can will have lower values and can be bargains. The fact that these older trains can often be repaired as often parts are available and most of us have enough skills to repair them to working condition.
I wonder if today's highly detailed and functioned trains of today will share such a fate. We will see.
Charlie
@Choo Choo Charlie posted:I wonder if today's highly detailed and functioned trains of today will share such a fate.
Charlie
Modern trains are mechanically far more robust than pre/postwar stuff. Little grease and oil and they will run forever. No brushes/commutators to clean, no e-units to adjust. If the electronics (aka fancy reverse unit) fails or is out of date just upgrade to newer stuff. Don't understand electronics or just want a reverse unit? Install a simple reverse unit. Easy peasy. With modern trains dead electronics does not mean the locomotive is dead.
I see the point , of things ( Model trains ) always being on the pricey side , but lets take the wood flat car kit. ( basically a box of sticks) Even in the Late 30's the mfgr. had to design kit , source the wood, (and cut it to length), the drawing , instruction sheet, Box label and tissue paper to wrap the parts. Now he has to sell the product to a shop. at a discount. Less 40% form the list price of $3.50. I know there were scores of the small mfgr's supplying the virgining O scale market.
@Lou1985 posted:Modern trains are mechanically far more robust than pre/postwar stuff. Little grease and oil and they will run forever. No brushes/commutators to clean, no e-units to adjust. If the electronics (aka fancy reverse unit) fails or is out of date just upgrade to newer stuff. Don't understand electronics or just want a reverse unit? Install a simple reverse unit. Easy peasy. With modern trains dead electronics does not mean the locomotive is dead.
I will partially disagree with you. Although the Prewar products are lacking many of the refinements of todays products i have found, most of the motor to be bullet proof, and the manual reversing switches the same. I hate e units and AC . With the massed produced DC perm mage motors did the most to bring model railroading o , but of the dark ages. I do agree about the electronics usually noting wrong with the engine but with the overpriced electronics
@Lou1985 posted:Modern trains are mechanically far more robust than pre/postwar stuff. Little grease and oil and they will run forever. No brushes/commutators to clean, no e-units to adjust. If the electronics (aka fancy reverse unit) fails or is out of date just upgrade to newer stuff. Don't understand electronics or just want a reverse unit? Install a simple reverse unit. Easy peasy. With modern trains dead electronics does not mean the locomotive is dead.
I don’t know if I’d agree there. Modern “maintenance free” can motors have a life and are for the most part unrepairable. Pittman’s will last a very long time but all the cheap Chinese motors, no, they will release their smoke one day. If parts from the manufacturer have dried up, have fun sourcing a replacement of the correct dimensions, voltage, and torque and then have fun swapping the gear.
Open frame AC motors, especially ones from the 30s, 40s, and 50s just seem to go and go and are easy to maintain.
And then there’s gearing. I can’t even begin to count how many modern MTH, Lionel, and Williams engines I have seen with worm gear drives that have destroyed themselves. For MTH, the tinplate stuff seems most prone to stripping worm drives. For Lionel, its scale diesels and and a certain Pennsy steamer.
Certain modern era models are mechanically well built and superior to postwar/prewar (many of which trace their heritage in the mechanical department to the 700E lineage). There are many more models from the last 30 years that I would be surprised if they were operable in regular use for more than a couple decades.
I guess , I see your point , I have had Vintage brass , no issues other than gear noise, but even with My more modern brass (weaver precision scale and Overland) I have no problems. I have 2 diecast locos with no problems but I also keep them lubed . cant say on the modern mt or lionel wont buy one , Until! they star making a product with out their electronics, and not impressed by Lionel's drives , there i agree , I dont see it running in 20 years and parts will me an issue along with the age old question will the castings fall apart
I agree with Dave and Ryan. Stuff today is not built to last. Back then it was. So calculating today's inflation with prices back then and declaring them equal is not relevant.
Yesterdays heirlooms are tomorrows heirlooms because they will still be around AND repairable as well. Which would you rather fix, dented metal or cracked plastic? Basic motors or unavailable electronic parts?
John
@Lou1985 posted:Modern trains are mechanically far more robust than pre/postwar stuff. Little grease and oil and they will run forever. No brushes/commutators to clean, no e-units to adjust. If the electronics (aka fancy reverse unit) fails or is out of date just upgrade to newer stuff. Don't understand electronics or just want a reverse unit? Install a simple reverse unit. Easy peasy. With modern trains dead electronics does not mean the locomotive is dead.
The thing is folks today place a high value to all the "bells and whistles" of today's model trains. When those fail, they view the model as worthless.
Rusty
@Ryan Selvius posted:I don’t know if I’d agree there. Modern “maintenance free” can motors have a life and are for the most part unrepairable. Pittman’s will last a very long time but all the cheap Chinese motors, no, they will release their smoke one day. If parts from the manufacturer have dried up, have fun sourcing a replacement of the correct dimensions, voltage, and torque and then have fun swapping the gear.
Open frame AC motors, especially ones from the 30s, 40s, and 50s just seem to go and go and are easy to maintain.
And then there’s gearing. I can’t even begin to count how many modern MTH, Lionel, and Williams engines I have seen with worm gear drives that have destroyed themselves. For MTH, the tinplate stuff seems most prone to stripping worm drives. For Lionel, its scale diesels and and a certain Pennsy steamer.
Certain modern era models are mechanically well built and superior to postwar/prewar (many of which trace their heritage in the mechanical department to the 700E lineage). There are many more models from the last 30 years that I would be surprised if they were operable in regular use for more than a couple decades.
You'll probably be dead by the time a modern can motor locomotive motor releases its "magic smoke". Case in point. My local LHS has two MTH starter set locomotives that run on their display layout, a 2-8-0 and a F40PH. Each locomotive runs 8 hours a day 6 days a week. Both of the locomotives on the layout have been doing that for about a decade now (one is from 2011, the other 2012) with just grease and oil once a week. Original motors, gears, and electronics on both. Show me a postwar Lionel starter set 2-4-2 or Alco FA that'll do that without burning up an armature, wobbling a bushing, or eating a gear.
I very rarely get a can motor that's died, except for the crappy Canon motors that Lionel uses in their current steam. I've had one bad Pittman, the armature got cooked when it had a motor stall, probably can't blame that on the motor. Over the years I've seen a few Mabuchi motors go bad, but hardly a flood.
The old postwar trains were for the most part built as toys, they built them to be rugged and (relatively) reliable, and also it was simple technology. Back then you could repair a radio because they used replaceable vacuum tubes, capacitors, transformers, resistors, all easy to replace (though solid state radios basically last a long time because solid state is a lot more durable). Back then cars were simple beasts you could fix with a pair of pliers and a screwdriver *shrug*. And yes, things today in general don't last, appliances basically last until their warrantee expires and then you can be up a tree because parts aren't available (it is why I have a speed queen washer and a drier that is pretty simple. That speed queen may outlive me, and has bronze direct drive, a motor that weighs about a thousand pounds ,and the control unit is mechanical and easily fixed or replaced. )
So yes, postwar because they made a ton of them, are fixable and you can get pretty much any part you need either from a donor or from a new parts supplier. E unit goes you can replace with an electronic one or the smoke unit goes, a modern one, isn't hard.
So let's talk about the modern units (and again, just my point of view). Yeah, unless you are GRJ or one of the engineering types on here, they are difficult to fix. Board swapping should be easy, but you often can't get the boards, thanks to them being proprietary. One of the problems with modern engines is instead of being generic (think for example Williams and its "tru Blast horn" or the whistle tender on a lionel train), they have specific sounds for the engine involved, they have synchronized chuff sounds, sync'ed steam, and for all I know simulated passenger cars dumping their latrine unto the tracks, too. The engines are made in relatively small quantities for a pretty short period (heck, BTO for that year, after that, not produced), so the amount of replacement parts is limited. Even in the Lionchief line , Lionel only produces them in very limited quantities, in the past they produced stuff for years; more importantly, to save money, so much of it was standard across the product line.
So yes, if it breaks, it is likely going to be hard to get parts to fix it.
Okay, so then why buy the product? First of all, despite what people are saying, if the thing is well built to start with (I am leaving off initial issues), with a modicum of care they likely will last. You certainly can't treat them the way post war was, they have too many fine detail parts on them and the electronics don't like surges and shorts and the like. And you are getting what is a large part of the market now, product that is either scale or pretty darn close to it, that has speed control and sound and whatnot. So it comes down to risk vs rewards, is it worth the risk of the high cost and the possibility the unit will fail and you can't get parts vs the fun of running it? That is up to everyone to decide.
The other thing is, if it breaks, there are alternatives (and here I am talking control). if the electronics totally go the engine is still useable. For example, you could use third rail ERR boards- you would lose obviously the finer legacy controls let's say, but you still could have sound and decent speed control and it still is a nice looking unit. Or if it is MTH, you can get PS3 upgrade kit to replace a blown ps2/3 (you could also convert a Lionel engine to PS3). Would it be costly? Given that a new engine is like 1500 bucks or more, if you can even get the same engine type, the conversion will be a lot less (and even if replacement boards are available for the engine, if you get it repaired will cost you a lot in any event).
The other thing is with trains, how much and how long do you really run them? This idea of something lasting 50,60 years is great and good, but realistically, do we really see these as heirlooms? And given how many engines many people have buying these expensive engines, how much wear and tear will they get? When these were toy trains most of us used them 'rigorously', including speed runs where the engine fell over or off the table, and they were used a lot. How much do we use them, where they are going to wear out with conceivable usage?
Note I am not saying what we have today is ideal, I would wish the products came out of the box and ran and ran, and if they didn't there was service and parts backing them, no doubt conventional/postwar has that end of the market sewn up. The fact that the manufacturers no longer give service outside warranty repairs, and with MTH rely on dealers to do that, is not a great thing given how hard it can be to find people to work on these who actually know how to fix them.
As far as replacing can motors, given how generic they are, that likely isn't going to be a problem in replacing them, and given our usage, they likely will last a long time.
This is where DCC is superior to what we have in three rail, because it is non proprietary, if a DCC board goes, you can plug in another one; if that brand is out of business, you can use another brand of board since they use a standard connector and the boards are NMRA standards with functions (yes, I am aware that with DCC there are extensions manufacturers use, and you can lose that capability if you go to another brands boards, but you still would have full DCC standard availability).
@Craftech posted:I agree with Dave and Ryan. Stuff today is not built to last. Back then it was. So calculating today's inflation with prices back then and declaring them equal is not relevant.
Yesterdays heirlooms are tomorrows heirlooms because they will still be around AND repairable as well. Which would you rather fix, dented metal or cracked plastic? Basic motors or unavailable electronic parts?
John
The thing with an heirloom is someone has to want them, too. I am sure there will be future generations who will use conventional/post war, but I don't think it is going to be a lot of people.
Bigkid
"The thing with an heirloom is someone has to want them, too. I am sure there will be future generations who will use conventional/post war, but I don't think it is going to be a lot of people."
I agree but who would have thought that audio turntables and LPs would make come back. My 16 year old grand daughter asked for a TT for Christmas (and got one) and LPs out sold CDs in 2021.
Charlie
@Choo Choo Charlie posted:Bigkid
"The thing with an heirloom is someone has to want them, too. I am sure there will be future generations who will use conventional/post war, but I don't think it is going to be a lot of people."
I agree but who would have thought that audio turntables and LPs would make come back. My 16 year old grand daughter asked for a TT for Christmas (and got one) and LPs out sold CDs in 2021.
Charlie
That is of course true, though it kind of goes along with that I said, that it won't be a lot of people. Vinyl outsold CD's (I am one of those who loves vinyl, play it through a tube amp), but keep in mind that CD's themselves are a small part of the market, the huge portion of the market is all download/stream now. I was commenting more about the idea that post war/conventional lasting a long time is necessarily a selling point to people using them, I don't think that factors into many people's thought processes who aren't people already attuned to postwar/conventional running. For better or worse I think people getting into 3 rail O will gravitate towards the newer command control stuff and aren't looking to give it to their kids or grandkids. Heck, standard thing I have seen is someone passes away or no longer can use their trains, and their kids and grandkids don't want it, whatever it is.
@Lou1985 posted:Modern trains are mechanically far more robust than pre/postwar stuff. Little grease and oil and they will run forever. No brushes/commutators to clean, no e-units to adjust. If the electronics (aka fancy reverse unit) fails or is out of date just upgrade to newer stuff. Don't understand electronics or just want a reverse unit? Install a simple reverse unit. Easy peasy. With modern trains dead electronics does not mean the locomotive is dead.
Postwar Lionel is/was bulletproof. Who are you kidding?
@CN6167 posted:Postwar Lionel is/was bulletproof. Who are you kidding?
Yeah no. Run a postwar locomotive for hundreds of hours. You're gonna need to clean brushes, commutators, etc. I've got hundreds of hours on MTH Premier steam and Lionel scale steam with Pittman motors. The extent of my maintenance in that time is shooting some grease on the worm and oil on the axles and rods. 2 minutes of maintenance. A 736 would melt down.
Gee...I recently scored a Standard Gauge engine that's been dated around the time of the First World War and it runs like a top. 👍
Hard for me to believe that the modern stuff, with its complex electronics, will be functional even 20 years from now... not that it matters; I'll be gone by then too! 🙂
Mark in Oregon
@Strummer posted:Hard for me to believe that the modern stuff, with its complex electronics, will be functional even 20 years from now...
26 years old, TMCC, runs like new.
@Strummer posted:Gee...I recently scored a Standard Gauge engine that's been dated around the time of the First World War and it runs like a top. 👍
Hard for me to believe that the modern stuff, with its complex electronics, will be functional even 20 years from now... not that it matters; I'll be gone by then too! 🙂
Mark in Oregon
Mark, Some of us believe the 20 year old stuff is far more reliable than current production. Failures are easy and cheap to fix in most cases without special tools. Ever had to replace spur gears in a post war steam engine? Cheap maybe but not so easy without special and not so inexpensive tools.
Pete
Pete & Lou1985
I agree; if you re-read my comment I think you'll see what I meant was I wonder if "current" stuff will work 20 years from now; not that stuff that is currently 20 years old isn't reliable.
Hope that clarifies my earlier post. 
Mark in Oregon
@Rusty Traque posted:The thing is folks today place a high value to all the "bells and whistles" of today's model trains. When those fail, they view the model as worthless.
Rusty
This is it in a nutshell, ….and very politely put,….Rusty hit it on the head,….there’s a huge contingent of folks that won’t dare touch modern model trains cause if they do experience a failure, that contingent has a bandwagon as big as a battle ship with “ all circuit boards are junk” and “ if it breaks down, it’s a paper weight “ and my favorite: “ postwar forever “ ……I often wonder how many people get brainwashed by the buzzing e-unit crowd that’ll never experience modern technology……
Pat
@Strummer posted:Pete & Lou1985
I agree; if you re-read my comment I think you'll see what I meant was I wonder if "current" stuff will work 20 years from now; not that stuff that is currently 20 years old isn't reliable.
Hope that clarifies my earlier post.
Mark in Oregon
I think as long as one doesn't short out the modern electronics the current stuff should run fine in 20 years. The old TMCC stuff was a little over built, as when it came out you still had guys running ZWs with breakers that took 15 minutes to trip. Most of the electronics from that era seem to be built with that in mind, where as the modern stuff expects better circuit protection.
To get back to the original Post Original prices of O scale ! This is during the heart if the Great Depression ! and the decade that was the birth Model rail roading . This was also start 0 Scale, on 2 rail track with or with out an out side electrical pick up, designed to run on prototypical track, not hollow , or tube rail. ( Not the set it up on the Floor Model Rail Roading . ) With the average worker bringing home (if he was working ) 25, to 35 dollars a week. So I see that $3.50 flat care kit , was quite an expenditure, for a hobbyist at the time! AS far as Lionel their only venture in to O scale was the 700E in 1939 and the 700K . even though track system was T rail, it retained an inside 3rd rail. ( not scale) Only the kit had a provision to be constructed with the out side power rail. At $79.00 retail back then, or 2 to 3 weeks income for the average guy) So, yes model trains have always been expensive!
@Dave Koehler posted:To get back to the original Post Original prices of O scale ! This is during the heart if the Great Depression ! and the decade that was the birth Model rail roading . This was also start 0 Scale, on 2 rail track with or with out an out side electrical pick up, designed to run on prototypical track, not hollow , or tube rail. ( Not the set it up on the Floor Model Rail Roading . ) With the average worker bringing home (if he was working ) 25, to 35 dollars a week. So I see that $3.50 flat care kit , was quite an expenditure, for a hobbyist at the time! AS far as Lionel their only venture in to O scale was the 700E in 1939 and the 700K . even though track system was T rail, it retained an inside 3rd rail. ( not scale) Only the kit had a provision to be constructed with the out side power rail. At $79.00 retail back then, or 2 to 3 weeks income for the average guy) So, yes model trains have always been expensive!
Using this: CPI Inflation Calculator (bls.gov)
A Lionel 700E in 1937 at $79.00 dollars is equivalent to $1575 dollars in 2022 money. Lionel cataloged a NYC Hudson in 2019 for $1399.99. Adjusted for inflation it would cost $1584 in 2022. So, adjusted for inflation, a scale Hudson has cost about the same since 1937, however you get more features with a modern version. A scale model was never really cheap/affordable to the average worker in 1937, and it still isn't today.
@Dave Koehler posted:To get back to the original Post
That might be a good objective,
Another reason why early Marx was so popular. Ordinary families had neither the room nor the money for standard gauge, scale Lionel was out of reach and even ordinary prewar and postwar outfits were pricey for tough times, but Marx was within reach for a lot more people.
@Becky, Tom & Gabe Morgan posted:Another reason why early Marx was so popular. Ordinary families had neither the room nor the money for standard gauge, scale Lionel was out of reach and even ordinary prewar and postwar outfits were pricey for tough times, but Marx was within reach for a lot more people.
For toy trains yes, but marx never made O Scale
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