The irony of our hobby's supply and demand

The answer, of course, is that we boys of the 1940s and 50s grew up; went through the normal course of our society's "processes"; and then found ourselves seeking to relive some of the more pleasant memories of our youth.  AND, we now had the resources and even more time to rekindle those long-past times and still-fresh memories.  The bounty of trains we have today are the direct result of that nostalgia that blossomed into a seemingly insatiable appetite.  That, in turn, also helped to attract participants from more recent generations...not in the same numbers, of course, but enough to keep fueling the fire.

You are correct, there is a huge amount of new items, lots of variations and choices in trains and all accessories. 

I hope lots of people spend lots of money buying all this merchandise and then build layouts and run and enjoy model railroading.  I hope they share their joy and grow the hobby.

One of the great things about this hobby is the variation.  One can go toy, scale, O, S, O27 and many more, ready built, build it yourself, scratch build, collect, fixer up, repair, operate, display, lone wolf, club, forum, it goes on and on.

For me I have never bought a new car or engine or transformer etc.  Some have given me a new one or two as gifts though.  So if I take advantage of the new selections it will be on the used market or fixer uppers.  I like to scratch build and fix up and operate. 

I think it is important to keep learning and finding new things to do and add to the experience.  It is all so important to not let the hobby consume you as most will soon burn out.  I know about burning out or tiring as my brother and I tired of out childhood layout after a few years though it was only up 2 weeks during Christmas season.  We moved on to stick model airplanes, U control planes, free flight planes and model boats and R/C boats.  I got back into trains when my son and daughter were infants. 

My layout is over 30 years old and been in two countries, five houses in five states.  It was on the floor from November to March with heavy usage during the Holidays.  I have other hobbies and interests for other seasons.  I now have it up in a permanent location, but it gets ignored most of the time, waiting its season and time (have 7 grandchildren 10 and under).  That is just me and my way to do the hobby. 

I am looking forward to the fall train show and getting the skirting sewn up to hid all the stuff under the layout before the Holiday open house and action.

Charlie

Just another example of the Baby Boomers growing up, getting older, and affecting aspects of life.

Bigrail, the selection and vast amount of product available now, technilogical advances aside, is all because of outsourcing.  Anything and everything can be made in China, from duplications to completely new models.

Josh had large factories and many employees, but he could only make so much, and only so much variety per year.  By and large there was more demand than product. 

That is not the case now.  It's not only in trains but in every single product we buy.  The variety is mind boggeling.  And if not for the insipid CPSC and our fascination with lawyers and lawsuits and lack of individual responsibility there would be more product available.

In any case, this is a great time to be in the hobby.  Twenty or so years ago we thought that was the best time.  And so it goes.

'The variety in everything we buy is mind boggling'.  How true.  When I walk down the cheese aisle or chip aisle in a Woodman's grocery store I am staggered by how many different products are available.  Who needs 12 different varieties of Pringles for Heaven's sake?  There has to be 400 different knds of cheese to choose from.  Truly mind boggling.

No doubt this is a great time to be in the hobby and most of it has been made possible because of the internet.

Kind of a two-edged sword in a way because my personal feeling is that the Internet will have more to do with the decline of the hobby than any other single factor.  Evidence of the impact is already amply available.  It's not going to happen overnight, and it certainly doesn't mean that the hobby is going to disappear, but anyone who believes that there's not some very uneven track ahead has just not been paying close attention.

It has, indeed, been a great time to be in the hobby--dating back to the early 1990s through recent times--and folks would be well advised to take full advantage of it while they can.  We have been blessed with a treasure trove of product in recent years and my guess is that it will never again be what it has been.

Even the Chinese can only put out so much.  If they could keep up with the demand, the product delivery dates wouldn't keep getting pushed back.

There is still more demand for the product than production capacity can supply, and we keep demanding even more.

Rusty

It would be nice if that was the case, but I don't think the production delays have much or anything at all to do with consumer demand or manufacturing capacity.  Most of those delays are due to difficulties in the material supply and labor end of the chain.

The numerical size of the production runs of the more desirable current products can be quite small relative to the postwar era.  Increased variety has occurred along side smaller output of product.

How many Santa Fe war bonnet F3s are produced today as compared to the early to mid 1950s?

According to Google the US population in July 1954 was 163,025,854. This past July they report that the current population is 311,591,917. There's almost 150 million more people here today than back then when Lionel was the largest toy mfg in America. If our industry is like a lot of others, the percent of customers compared to the population may have dipped, but the actual number of customers served by the industry has certainly increased. Meanwhile Lionel, for example, is not the leading company it once was either. So you have a smaller company trying to serve more available customers. Add to this, modern mfg technology, and off shore savings of mfg expense. So maybe this all answers the original question.

I don't agree.  I left tinplate in my teens for HO because during that period, cited above,  '40's, '50's, and '60's, the model magazines were full of ads for all kinds of HO models of prototypes that have never yet shown up in the three rail world. ( the three rail world at that time seemed to ignore what was going on in HO, except when

those manufacuturers, as did Lionel and Marx, entered that market)

Even though there is much more product, I don't see as much variety as I'd like,

as to prototypes, and while we are beyond my long time gripe of the same four

protoypes reproduced over and over, it seems to have come about reluctantly,

and happened well after I came back into tinplate, by tracking down what I owned

or wanted to own as a kid (old product), while ignoring what new was then offered.

Quantity does not equate to variety.  There was this period when dealers complained about too much product (too much of the same thing wasn't mentioned but was the problem).  K-Line Heavyweights filled a huge hole in the market, but soon saturated that market and were discounted by dealers anxious to get them off their tables.

There may be a lot of cheese selections in the grocery stores (lot fewer choices OF

grocery stores, too!!..oil companies, gas stations, the list goes on) , but (until recent craft beers) the beer brands (I am no authority, I don't drink it) had dwindled to a few.  Same for automobiles...while the Depression killed off dozens of makes,  flip through a 1957 auto catalog and notice the huge variety of body styles, engines, etc., you could get.  I have just one choice in new cars, that has an American sized gas tank (the car is an import, no less!, ALL the American brands have mouse milk gas tanks), has a coupe body available (the few American coupes have only big gas hog engines), and an engine and transmission combination I will buy.  What variety and choice?

I agree with all of the above as I am old enough to self verify the trend toward less variety in comparison to the past. The offerings by MTH and Lionel ( if you take out Euro prototypes) are much like the movies today..largely remakes in compared to other choices.

I cannot say that there isn't less risk in playing it safe with investing in new tooling, compared to varieties of essentially the same thing over and over, but a more systematic way of asking the customer what they want seems obvious, as well as this makes the customer more connected to the brand rather than announcing products only to cancel them. I cannot think of another industry that does this with so much regularity.

Why not put the horse in front of the cart where it belongs? What do we have now, something like three manufacturers making the same N.S heritage units? How about asking us what we want first..then release the poll numbers. That would attract interest like nothing else would..Just list the choices as generic types or prototypes..Register to vote! To me this seems like a no brainer.

We even have a variety ofAndy Edelmans

i think a model for the high end would be some sort of subscription sales.  Low production runs of models "voted" by customers.  Perhaps the 5 proposals that generate the most votes -- WITH substantial deposits -- would be produced.  And I'd say sell direct, since the dealers play absolutely no role in this.  It's not the past, but it may be the future.

>>>Even though there is much more product, I don't see as much variety as I'd like,

as to prototypes, and while we are beyond my long time gripe of the same four

protoypes reproduced over and over, it seems to have come about reluctantly,

and happened well after I came back into tinplate, by tracking down what I owned

or wanted to own as a kid (old product), while ignoring what new was then offered.

Quantity does not equate to variety.<<<

That would be a disaster.  Take a look at folks that complain here about deposits. 

Cutting out the dealers also means even less dealers and LHS's than there are now.

Exact-Rail went direct only recently, cutting out the dealers.  It'll be interesting to see how it works out in the long run.

Rusty

Yeah, but only one of them has PS-4 and Super DCS with Legacy control for the asking, plus any model you want made

Even though there is much more product, I don't see as much variety as I'd like

You might be surprised at how much variety there really is.  Between Atlas, Lionel, MTH and Weaver we have about 200 differently tooled freight cars available.  All up all the different paint schemes and you are into the thousands.  And those are just models in their O scale lines.  I'm not even counting the models in the traditional sized product lines, some of which are in fact 1/48 scale.

There have been so many models produced that there is a need among the operators for the work of collectors and collector organizations like the TCA just so the operators can find out what models will fit their needs.  In the future information like when 6464 box car body styles changed may be replaced with info like when grab iron details were upgraded or Kadee mounting pads were added.

No doubt this is a great time to be in the hobby and most of it has been made possible because of the internet.

Kind of a two-edged sword in a way because my personal feeling is that the Internet will have more to do with the decline of the hobby than any other single factor.

Allan

Have you ever run a train over the internet?  Try it and you just might like it!

While the internet provides new competition to all sorts of leisure time pursuits it opens opportunities for better model railroading.  It is far easier to see what others are doing, to research prototypes and to find out what models are available thanks to the internet than when catalogs, price lists and other printed media were the primary forms of information sharing.

I have certainly purchased many products because I became aware of them from this forum or a manufacturers web site, retailers site or an on line auction.  I have found many items I didn't know existed simply by searching by road name.

Nope, haven't run any trains over the Internet.  Hands-on with Legacy or DCS works well enough for me and my modest needs.

But the focus of my comment posted earlier was more on the industry and not so much on the consumer/hobbyist, although the latter are largely responsible for what is happening.  I would venture a guess that the model railroading industry landscape--manufacturers, dealers, suppliers, etc.--will be VERY different five years or so from now compared to what it is today.  And those will not exactly be positive changes.  In large part, the Internet (in the broadest sense of the term) can be thanked for that.  When one looks around a bit, and tracks the signs that are becoming even more numerous and evident, the conclusion is somewhat inescapable.

I think the variety and quality of model trains in general and O scale/ gauge in particular is at its zenith.  There is so much stuff available new and used that I am dazzled.  I am completely blown away at some prices I am seeing for used stuff, and yet every time I look, some new model shows up that I would have given an arm and a leg for before I learned how to build what I want.

I hope Allan is wrong about downhill from here, but I fear he is correct.  I am certainly seeing it in aviation, and not completely sure why.  It could be related to the slow loss of what we call the middle class.  The train thing might be related to the possibility that the younger generations have not seen steam or heavyweight Pullmans, or maybe have never been on a train or a streetcar.

I was at the checkout in a super size grocery store. I remembered my wife wanted a sponge. I sent my ten year old to get one and come right back because I was next in line. After a bit she came back empty handed and confused. Turns out there were 26 different choices of sponges and she panicked. True story. 

It's like "peak oil."  We've hit the maximum number of a large generation after a 20-year boom.  Fewer are in the next generation, prospects are lesser, times are tougher.  And the direct connection is fainter with each passing year.  Best to be prepared.

There are not too many choices. There are are many time periods spread thinly each year, so it takes a few years to get a mix of equipment that suit a specified decade of operation. That also requires a little bit of research on the part of the hobbist to tighten their focus to create a coherent time and place.

If we could build more public layouts of all sizes for people to see, then they might be interested in O Gauge and O scale again. The operating accessories and freight cars would help promote interest. New operating freight cars and matching accessories that show how a real railroad operates would help make public layouts more meaningful.

Andrew

There is no doubt that the O Gauge market is offering us hobbyists a much greater variety of trains, buildings, animated accessories, scenic materials, model figures and vehicles, book and videos than ever before.  

However the hobby itself is evolving right before our eyes. The internet is a double edged sword. In one respect it allows people the convenience to shop online which can be a tremendous advantage in keeping the hobby alive, especially for people who do not have a hobby shop available to them. It has also been the primary cause of many hobby shops going out of business too.

Another positive of the internet in promoting the hobby is the ability of people to show videos of their layouts throught sites like Utube. The advent of the online forum has increased participation in the hobby and has given new hobbyists an opportunity to learn about the hobby and encourage them to build layouts and run their trains.

Everything around us is evolving as the technology evolves and forces change to the marketplace. I don't doubt that in five years we will be looking back at this time as the high point in this hobby. There will be consolidation of manufacturers and other industry changes as hobbyists grow older. Eventually, no matter how enthused you are about the hobby you can only buy and store and run so many trains.

As hobbyists work on their layouts they are continually in the market to buy more track, scenery, buildings, etc. What happens when a layout is completed? I know that in most our minds a layout is never completed but for those who do not wish to take down their layouts and rebuild them again the material buying slows down dramatically or even stops.

Hopefully more new hobbyists come into the market to create a new customer base. This is part of the ever changing scenerio of all hobbies. I am involved in other hobbies besides my trains and the same thing is happening to them.

Right now York and few local shows are all I have time to visit in addition to my occasional visits to my favorite hobby shops. I still enjoy running my trains and participating in a couple of train clubs but my big spending days on trains, etc. are over.

Steve Tapper

my big spending days are over too, but that is because I have more of this stuff than any kid has a right to have, by an order of magnitude.  A lot of that is converted 3-rail, which really expanded my horizons.

The future of this hobby is often a pervasive theme in discussions like this one.  Other than someone who's livelihood is directly affected I do not understand the concern many in the hobby have about it's future. I don't say this in a critical way at all, I just don't get it.  Does anyone suppose model shipbuilders, knitters, gardeners, or any other hobbyist you can think of, fret as we collectively do about what is to come? Fred    What am I missing??

I agree with your observation, Audi, and I'm speaking as one whose livelihood IS connected with the hobby.

My goal as editor of the magazine is to share the accomplishments of those in the hobby, entice even more individuals to share their own accomplishments, and hopefully, by virtue of that sharing and the education it provides, to attract new participants.  That's about the best I can do to contribute to the hobby's future.

But as an individual hobbyist I also recognize that I have been involved in this hobby in the best of times--the pinnacle, if you will--and I have reaped the rewards of that opportunity and truly have acquired just about everything I could possibly want to keep me fully occupied for the remainder of my years.  I don't really worry much about the future in regard to the material goods (trains and accessories, etc.) or even in terms of numbers of participants because those things are beyond my control.

This is, in my view, truly the greatest and most creative and instructive of hobbies, and I am confident that it will enjoy a good future even if the overall number of participants decreases and if the supply chain of product is diminished.

I have often thought that. Another thought; if the hobby is diminished so much. And model trains seem to last forever. And most people that have them take care of them. And the days of them just getting thrown out are over because the general population thinks they are worth money. And tons of new stuff is made every day. Then either there are more people than we think buying model trains or the size of everyone's collection is getting huge.

I think many may worry about what will happen to all the stuff they have amased through the years when their days on earth are coming to a close. Will it be a burden to the loved ones we leave it to? Will there be anyone left for them to sell it to? 

The days of one's thinking of their collection as a sorce of money at retirement time are also gone. Who knows what is really deep inside another's mind. 

That being said enjoy every moment with your trains. Enjoy the sharing of ideas and chit chat with modeling friends. Enjoy the feeling when that new piece arrives that in no way you really need but it brings you joy.  Enjoy just standing back and looking at what you have created. And remember...once you gone it really doesn't matter anyway. 

Well said. I couldn't have put it better myself. 

quote:

Other than someone who's livelihood is directly affected I do not understand the concern many in the hobby have about it's future. I don't say this in a critical way at all, I just don't get it.  Does anyone suppose model shipbuilders, knitters, gardeners, or any other hobbyist you can think of, fret as we collectively do about what is to come? Fred    What am I missing??

I don't worry about the hobbies future one bit. My kids probably will not want to keep all of my trains. Perhaps they will pick out a few items. Whatever cash value the trains have when I am gone will go into my estate as a bonus. My family will not need the money as a resource to go on.

That written, I certainly to encourage/ assist the folks that I meet who do have an interest in toy trains or model railroading, regardless of the gauge.

When my older son and I were involved with radio controled airplanes, folks did seem to express concern over the future of the hobby.