The State of the Market?

itsten days before before York so everyone whose buying is saving for the show. If you have a "cant let this pass by price" on items. you may successfully tempt a buyer.

What are you trying to sell and at what price?
I think the best indicator of the market is EBay, so long as you know how to use it.
Only look at sold items, remember to factor in shipping, and remember than any one or two sales could be abnormally high or low. There has to be a bunch of items sold to get a good idea of pricing.

It all depends on what you are selling.   I find Legacy and DCS are strong.  K Line 18 and 21 inch passenger cars are doing well.  I feel modern trains are what people want.  That is just my observation.  I see a few trains each week.  

It's difficult to say about "the market" as prices may go down because of being an election year. Many things affect the prices of model trains, even how many new pieces of a certain type of engine (re-productions of post war items)are made may effect the price.

Lee Fritz

Your observation is on the mark.  Buyers are looking for bargains.  Doesn't matter if it's the latest and greatest or oldest and finest but the law of supply and demand.

What, me worry?

Price is everything. Lower your price enough and most things will sell. My experience as a longtime seller on both Ebay and at live train shows. I would start at 60% of the new price (if it is still new or like new) and be prepared to drop from there.

My recent review of Ebay pricing shows that most sellers there are actually asking MORE for items than some of the dealers you see listed at the top of this page are.

I have a friend with a LOT of train stuff that is trying to thin the herd. He has been doing very well on ebay the last couple of weeks and has also been getting very good prices. Maybe it's all in what you have and what people are wanting at any given time, then there are some folks that just get lucky too.

As someone said above, I would guess that many of the folks here are saving their money and waiting to attend the York meet in the next week or two. I think timing has a lot to do with things too.

The key question is listed above by CW Burfle: "What are you trying to sell and at what price?"

If you're trying to sell a postwar ZW transformer, for example, and you're still in the "buck a watt" days in terms of your asking price, you won't find any takers.  If you're trying to sell something like that for $50, then I'd say your observation that it "seems like no body is buying anything" is right on the mark.  

Please give us more specifics and I'm sure many of us can give you some informed opinions.  You don't need to post your entire For Sale list, just a few representative items with Description, Condition and asking price.

Looking forward to continuing the discussion.

Steven J. Serenska

I agree with Marty it's a modern market, the newcomer and yes they are there want the tech side of model railroading. Postwar and Prewar seem to have now less demand except for those peddling mint or cherry items.

I find the Lionel and MTH WiFi has been a big hook for new train guys/gals.  I see less people who collect postwar than years past.   Many products are being offered today by both companies.  The modern electronics have been great.  

If anything new different, or original was offered, why wait for York? But I don't expect it there either. (Surprise me!)

Just returned from the fall show (one of two) held near the Asheville Regional Airport at an excellent facility and was rather surprised at the low attendance both days - Friday had very few people and today was a little better but not what has been 'normal' in the past. Most dealers/vendors complained of few or no sales. We were all rather puzzled.

My guess is that the storm had something to do with it with many families in flux by traveling and or concern for friends and family in FL, GA, and the Carolinas. Our weather was decent with light rain for the most part. Traffic was quite heavy in the Interstates due to the coastal evacuations too.

Hopefully the spring show will be much better!

What new trains guys & girls?

As an additional comment, the older couple at the tables next to mine had some nice older items and his prices were fairly high on most items. I queried him a bit, tying not to offend and he said "I'm trying to get back what I paid for them". He didn't sell much either.

Another local fella always has 8 - 10 tables of mostly postwar. Much of it barely VG, some quite beat-up, and his prices are ridiculous. He has an AA pair of the 2356 Southern F3s that are quite poor, yet he has had $600 on them for the past couple of years. He must sell some trains but from show to show a lot of it is the same...

Eddie, you need to get out more.   I will catch you at your reserved table at the Clock Diner.  Have a safe trip down.

Marty

Things sort of seem slow. Even this forum "buy & sell" section seems slow, at least with the older things I buy. Price is important-yes but not all important. We have a TCA show at the end of the month and I am looking forward to that. No other local shows in the 'Burgh area that I am aware of.  I don't eBay so it is the forum, shows and a few antique shops.

Unless you have something rare or produced in low numbers prepare yourself to lose some money. Modern day trains are produced by the thousands and easy to get at a bargain if a person is willing to be patient and search. 

Greetings Everyone,

 State of the Market!?   The simple version is, "it is, what it is".   I know, some of you are going to look at this and ask yourself, WHAAAAAAT?   Let me give it to you from my experience on "Da Bay".   You're probably not going to MAKE money, but you should have known that when you got into this hobby.   I like to refer to it as recycling my initial cash outlay.  I buy something and when it no longer fits my needs I "recycle" it by selling it, usually on "Da Bay", and turn it into cash which I use to purchase other items I am currently interested in buying.   Look at it as "depreciation".  You are NOT GONNA GET ALL YOUR MONEY BACK!  As far as "Da Bay",  I believe that "price" is the initial motivator when people are looking to buy, however, shipping cost, (if it's to high) can be a deal breaker.   Potential buyers also pay attention to "Seller Feedback".  If your feedback rating is lower than 100%, this may scare potential buyers away as well.  And again, as a few posters have stated, "rarity" is definitely a factor regarding how much an item will sell for.   I firmly believe that it really boils down to the concept that any sale will depend on whatever the market will bear for that particular item at the time the item was offered for sale.  Personally speaking, I normally do well on "Da Bay" and not just during "train season".  YMMV!

 Chief Bob

stubbsO posted:

I've been trying to sell some stuff on the bag for what I would call a good price. I know that people are struggling to make ends meet without doing any foolish spending and all, but it just seems like no body is buying anything. ...

That's largely because there's an enormous glut of toy trains in the market, and the importers keep pumping new stuff out at rates that the existing market can't absorb.   Most folks love the newest stuff, but the prices are becoming prohibitive.  That, in turn, is creating a somewhat decent market for Mint-condition, like-new, or even excellent-condition "pre-owned" trains.  For example, Lionel JLC GG-1's can be had in the $450-$600 price range, while the newest VisionLine GG-1 due out in early 2017 will set folks back almost $1200 for just a few added gimmicks.

Just understand that lots of folks are also selling trains, so they can roll the cash intake to fund new purchases for the ever-increasing prices of the new stuff.  Another example...  Lionel has priced the latest weathered version of its N&W Y6b so high, that folks might need to sell their JLC-class Y6b from several years ago for roughly $800 and then shell out ANOTHER $800-$900 for the newest model.  Enthusiasts might think, "Hey... I'm only out the $800-$900 net new cash", but they also sold the former Y6b for $800 that they originally might have paid $1500+ for.  So it's an endless treadmill, with the new price structure largely built on a house of cards.

David

I agree, David. It  mirrors the auto market at a slightly lower price level.  There is a limit to the number of high priced fancy toy trains the market can absorb no matter what.  I have never been one to insist on the "latest and greatest" no matter how flashy. The market is setting the levels we see.  I have never tried to make money on a hobby-keep it fun.

When the market has what I want and can afford, it's great.

When it doesn't, it stinks.

Rusty

I think this "for sale" forum speaks for itself, note how many ads re-surface a week later with "lowered prices", and then it happens a week later again.  Also agree that the market is saturated, actually has been for a decade or more.   Only way to flip anything for recovering most of your cost is to have something on the rare side, or something that nobody produced and you made it by custom painting, upgrading to TMCC, etc. 

For me, there is nothing that isn't new, I want bad enough to pay more than 50% of MSRP. And, IMO, if it doesn't come with a manufacturer's warranty it's not new. I wonder how many people are aware that MTH does not warranty anything that is more than 5 years old, even if recently purchased from an authorized dealer.

 I wonder how many people are aware that MTH does not warranty anything that is more than 5 years old, even if recently purchased from an authorized dealer.

I am under the impression that Lionel has a similar policy.
I am certain someone will correct me if I am wrong.

I looked up Lionel's policy. If MTH allows 5 years, then Lionel is more restrictive. I quote:

Products that are more than 3 years old, from date of manufacture, are not applicable for warranty coverage, even if they have never been sold prior to this date. (Under no circumstance shall any components or labor be provided free of charge.)

 

itsten days before before York so everyone whose buying is saving for the show. If you have a "cant let this pass by price" on items. you may successfully tempt a buyer.

That would mean less than 10,000 people control the national market all year long. Rather than explain the situation, it now seems worse!!  The bottom has fallen out of the toy train market IMO to a point where I have stopped selling as every transaction is a money loser. Obviously no selling also means little or no buying, upgrading, etc.

I suspect that my view represents most buyers today, though not all.

Yet the young adults my son's age are into turntables / records, and film cameras.

Serenska posted:

 

If you're trying to sell a postwar ZW transformer, for example, and you're still in the "buck a watt" days in terms of your asking price, you won't find any takers.  If you're trying to sell something like that for $50, then I'd say your observation that it "seems like no body is buying anything" is right on the mark.  

Looking forward to continuing the discussion. 

I remember those days and I bought one for $250, seems like now you can't give them away for more then a C note. Not going to happen. Some loco's are as nice as when I bought them. I just want what I have in them and not lose money.

All I know is I have a couple of pretty good locomotives for sale the past couple of months and I can't get a single email asking questions about them.  Seems to me at least here, things aren't selling.  I keep seeing the same products re listed over and over.

The State of the Market?

 It became apparent when scale & non-scale items all changed after Bob of AM Hobbies closed. That’s when true O scale prices started to escalated up and trains began their decline.Notice all the past cancellations especially with Atlas O plus they gone modern which also limits sales. Just look at all the completed non sold listing items on ebay and it will tell the story.

The scale items are almost 3x what they should be. Greedy marketers did it to themselves. As for non-scale, you can’t even get 15 bucks for a 6464 car. So now we have a high price for O and no demand on other items. In the big picture of things, the buying market is too small now.

 Tracks and switches are around but not abundantly available for someone to even start a new layout. People will not pay big bucks for a switch when they need several. Not justifiable.

 I often wonder looking through catalogs where all this stuff is really going?

The only way I would pay today’s retail price on a new item is when I see some NEW TOOLING being offered. Most of us have finished collecting all the same old cookies with different road names on them. We need something different.

My experience is if you do your homework to check what the same or similar items are selling for on the various auction sites and price accordingly, your item will sell.   If not, it won't.   It really doesn't matter what YOU think your items are worth - if one hasn't sold at that price point in the last 6 months, chances are yours won't either. 

Additionally, locomotives and rolling stock of the more popular road names sell at a better rate than those of their lesser known brethren. 

That being said, for some items the OGR Buy/Sell board simply does not reach a large enough audience for some items to sell and you have to resort to listing on Ebay or any of the other auction sites to reach a larger market.

- Greg

Yup, but that "bump" isn't 1 percent of the historical market size, and has had virtually no impact on the resale value of records or cameras! That bump in interest comes about because old records, cameras and turntables are virtually free, just like beat-up 2037s!

Quality turntables are bringing a reasonable price.
Here is a non-working Dual 1219 that went for over $130 plus shipping.
Here is a Dual 1226 that went for over almost $170 plus shipping
There are lots more.

I usually go to our local record shows with my buddy who is super into music. The show is always packed. Most of the records in nice shape are over $10 each. Being that I used to pay $3.99 per album at our local record shop, that's not bad.

I don't follow camera prices, but I'd guess that you are correct. We used to have one or two good camera shows a year. They would easily rival any local train shows in number of table holders and attendees. The last show I attended had only a handful, and about the same number of buyers. I don't know whether they are still holding them. If so, I would not bother.

As far as newly made trains, what percentage of the 1950's market size are sold today?

IMHO, whether its traditionally controlled trains, or the latest electronically controlled stuff. The days of big train shows and the bigger manufacturer / importers are numbered. Young people have other interests, and other things competing for their money and available space. You cannot fit many trains in a tiny home.

Holy Cow! It's nice to know that the Dual 1258 I have (and use all the time) might still be worth something. Of course the audiophile rivet counters might pooh-pooh the thing because it's been rebuilt twice and has a different stylus. 

SIRT posted:

...

 I often wonder looking through catalogs where all this stuff is really going?

...

I don't doubt that anybody going to York in less than a couple of weeks now is gonna have any trouble whatsoever seeing all the new stuff that dealers have been receiving in the past few months.  There will be PLENTY of GS-4's, UP FEF's  and even NYC ESE Hudsons (among other items) to go around. 

The saddest part of the new business paradigm is the importers are largely off the hook (in the short term), as they've shifted the risk of holding inventory to the dealer/distributor network.  In turn, the dealers need to hope that their new-found ability to compete for pre-order business (that they never would have been able to afford to do in prior years) outweighs the risk.  Only time will tell.

David

Not to argue with you, but just to discuss, the Dual turntables were in the $85 - 200 dollar range in the 1970's, so they are now selling for about the original purchase price, maybe a little more or a little less. My 1971 Allied Radio catalog lists the Dual 1219 for $175. By that standard, the market for PW is still strong, most PW pieces in decent shape still go for well above original price!

Discussions are enjoyable!

I think you and I are in a different class of stereo equipment. I like to think of my stuff as better mass market, and items like your Thorens  turntable as being audiophile.  Regardless, I purchased all my stuff when it was new, and current, paying whatever the street price was at the time. There was a discount from list.

For most people with postwar Lionel, I'd guess its a bit different. Long timers may have purchased a lot of their trains when they were newly made at list. Some may have purchased their stuff when nobody wanted postwar Lionel, and paid a fraction of the list price. I suspect that many board participants purchased their trains after they were already selling at inflated collector prices. So if they sell their trains at original list price, or even well above, they may be loosing lots of money.

I am not looking to sell my stereo gear. If I was, I'd be pleased to get the original purchase price.
I am looking to thin out my accumulation of trains. I expect to sell some for more than I paid, others for less. If I come out even in the end, I will think that I did well. I never thought of my trains as an investment.

Ordered one new locomotive, and a caboose, over the past year.

Need the "new engine" money for repairs of existing equipment mostly.

Unfortunately Dave, since the dealers have been getting stuck with non-sold items they have become more selective in the stock they purchase.

As for York, we shall see the masses in numbers or maybe not.

I wish things were booming but until we see the outcome of the next election it’s going to be a wait n see for the entire economy.

The older, high end,stereo equipment does bring a hefty price in today's market.  I was shocked when I researched the prices before I sold my stuff this year.  So far everything has sold within hours of being listed on Craigslist.  Your mileage may vary.

 

Apparently there is no demand for what you are selling at the price you are asking! There is nothing more to it than that!

 

That is an over simplification. That logic means sell a LN boxed 773 Hudson for $250. No way. Fair prices and low shipping are getting no takers. Best Offers on eBay were coming in as insults. Auctions on $75 items that started at .99 cents didn't generate the excitement they used to have any more. Last 2 things I sold about a year ago on TCA's web site - the buyers wanted to renegotiate the price after delivery or else.... I've been told it's the same here sometimes. Taking a table at a local show was replaced about 10 years ago by the internet.

aussteve posted:

The older, high end,stereo equipment does bring a hefty price in today's market.  I was shocked when I researched the prices before I sold my stuff this year.  ...

That's because the audio stuff that's made today is junk and largely disposable.  Have you noticed the price of a DVD or Bluray player these days?  Even a nice model can be had for under $80 today, and those are all light enough to be tossed around like frisbees.  They perform well and produce an excellent picture.  But in a few years, it's unlikely they'll work.  And you don't fix them.  You toss them out and buy a new one.

Yesteryear's hefty stuff with wood side-panels would break your toes if you dropped the unit on your foot.  AND they were built to last over 25 years easy.  I still have a SonyES GX-9 receiver I bought back in the late 1980's that serves some basic duty in a corner TV/sitting area in our home's lower level.  Only the most high-end, super-expensive stuff is built like that today.

The train stuff is on a slightly different road.  But there are some similarities, as I do sometimes wonder the extent to which these jewels are gonna be "fixable" in 15-20 years.

As for prices on new, like-new, or excellent condition pre-owned trains plummeting through the floor... I do feel that after a certain point, I'd rather just display a model train instead of selling it at a ridiculous price.  If it's not a win-win transaction, then "no-sale" is better than letting the item go with hard feelings and regrets.  A lot of buyers today work on the assumption that the seller NEEDS the cash immediately, and that may be the case at times.  Every once and awhile, we've seen sellers here on the forum list things and drop prices every few hours if there are no nibbles.  As observers, that was an interesting dynamic to watch.  But now that there's no interaction on the buy/sell boards here, that phenomenon won't be as noticeable.  FWIW, I never understood the "drop the price every few hours" strategy, because that was just conditioning buyers to not jump too early.  PLUS it was always within the buyer's prerogative to offer a lower price anyway if they really wanted something.

David