York 15 years from now?

If Allan had his way, something like this...

Seriously though, I think the doom and gloom crowd are off base.  It most likely will be smaller but I truly think it might have to evolve a bit but for the most part 20 years from now we might have flying trains.  An Rich will have to lashup his Scooter with Ed's.

I am not going to speculate what York will be like in 2028 but I have the following comment.

I joined TCA 15 years ago in 1998 and attended my 1st York meet. One of the few regrets I have had is that I waited until I was 42 years old to attend. For those that have to travel a long distance and you have the where-with-all to make the trip I urge you to do it sooner than later. If you are a reader of this forum then you undoubtedly enjoy the hobby and will have an amazing time at York!

Sam

You are 100% correct.  We can debate cell phone, picture taking, and what have you.  The experience of the meet and the camaraderie makes those previously mentioned items pale.  It is really just a release and is a must at least once.  I have had just as much fun if I buy an engine or a hot dog.

York is fun whether you're 25 or 50 or 75.

I'm thinking the transportation, and models, will look something like this .

I might go someday.  I am from York and live about 40 minutes away now.  Have family there so we are there frequently.  I am not a TCA member though so that's why I've never been.  Only been into O Scale since @ 2011.

15 years from now I may be in that "York in the sky", or at best, in an electric cart.

I foresee the York fairgrounds turned into a huge Cosco, and the train meet being open to the public on the boardwalk of Coney Island.

Seems reasonable to speculate that in 15 years, there may be a newer, more modern convention center built that would lure the TCA away from their current spot.  Maybe it will be in another part of Pennsylvania entirely?

I'll take a stab at this:

--  No, the York Meet almost certainly will not be bigger.  There's is nothing to indicate that it could possibly be bigger than it is now (which is also getting a bit smaller with each passing year).  I would expect a maximum of about 5,000 in 15 years, assuming the meet (or the TCA National for that matter) is able to sustain itself for that length of time.  At that time, I imagine it will comfortably occupy either the Orange Hall or possibly the Silver/Blue Halls.

--  Demographics would probably be about the same as they are now, with the largest number of participants being in the 55+ age group (and for much the same reasons as have applied over the hobby's entire history).

--  No, 2-rail will not be a significant factor at all, just as it is not a significant factor at the present time.  Most 2-railers who are interested in national organization activities at all belong to the NMRA and that won't change (but that also assumes that the NMRA is still around in 15 years, and that could also be somewhat problematic).

I attended York the first time when I was 55.  I'm 56 now and have my ticket for the upcoming show.  I only live an hours drive from the fair grounds.  My first impression was there was a lot of junk is some of the halls.  I did enjoy the dealer halls.  As the saying goes, "One man's trash is another one's treasure."  If you go try to make it there on Thursday or early Friday.  For some reason a lot of the tables in the non dealer hall pack up early. 

Wow, good answers Allan!  Thanks.

I have been doing 3-rail stuff for six years now, but I expect my work in the hobby to exand when I hit my mid-50's.

I was expecting to see a surge in 2-rail stuff going forward, but maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part.

Come along, step into my time machine, and we'll see what the York meet will be like 15 years from now..........................................................

:::Arriving at the Fairgrounds::::: Geezus!  Can you believe that??!!  They raised the parking fee again, up to $55!!

Wow!! Look at that!!! They tore down the grandstands!  Should have done that 5 years ago.

:::Stepping into the Turquoise Hall::::::  Hmmm, look at that, this guy had those post war items on his grandfather's table since 1975!  Priced even higher!!

:::Waltzing into the Orange Hall::::  Boy, did this building get run down.  Looks like they fixed the roof leak they had at the Fall Meet.  

Check that out!!!!!  Both Lionel (now a subsidiary of Neman-Marcus) and MTH have cataloged Mag-Lev trains!!  Geez, I sure miss seeing Mike at the meets, now that he's retired.  But at my age I sure miss seeing anything!!  Who's that sitting on his stool??

Dang!!  These aisles are crowded.  Good thing they have those cell phone user areas now.

:::::Twirling into the Blue, Silver and Pink Halls:::::::  Good thing they built this annex building, the Pink Hall, onto the Silver and Blue Halls.  With all the post war stuff now available from deceased members, they needed the space.  But now since they don't make batteries anymore, just capacitors, you can't use the horn button anymore.  But they still want top dollar for them.  Maybe my great grandkids will buy them someday!!

You hungry??  Me too!  Lets go get some of those new healthy scrapple sandwiches!

::::Sitting at a table eating:::  Hey, remember back in the day when OGR magazine use to whine about cell phone usage in the halls???  Whoda thought cell phones would go out of style for these new fangled "communication chips" they implant in our heads now!

::::Back into the Orange Hall:::::  Lets check out the OGR booth!

Oh wow, where are they??  Oh that's right!  They pulled out of the Meet over not being able to use their cell phones about 10 years ago!  Ha!  Now with our communication chips in our heads, it doesn't matter.  Now they can't get their booth back.  Maybe they can try the Pink Hall.

Ok, the Halls are closing, guess it's time to go.  Too bad we can't take anything back to 2013 with us, or else the course of history would be permanently altered.  Imagine that, OGR subscribers all get their magazines at the same time stopping all the complaints, Lionel and MTH would create a single command control system, everybody has jobs and spends most of their money on trains and I'd probably never eat scrapple again!!

Back into the time machine :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Good one Brian. 

Nicely done, Brian!

I have developed a "hot dog" and "scrapple sandwich" camera that can be the clandestine future of smuggled pics out of the secret halls full of trains. Problem is that the funds to buy them would be deducted from train purchases, ok scrap that Idea.

But there is talk about installing a field dampening device at the meet to render the chips unusable in the buildings!

Jerry

Jerry, imagine the chaos... the confusion...... why can't I receive a signal???  What is that buzzing in my head??   AAHHHHHH!

Brian, can you imagine someone at York walking around banging the side of their head and yelling "Can you hear me now?" ! 

Jerry

THA#13-0001

You'd think 15 years from now, Lionel and MTH would offer holographic downloads of your favorite trains to be run on your home layout from a projector mounted on the ceiling. Hard copies of trains (real models) for those who want them, will be offered by dealers listed on their tablet computers to be shipped to your domicile by whatever delivery company still exists then. 

i think i heard that at the last york i attended in2011 !-jim

Martin H, you are correct, I am only a couple of hours away. I just wanted to say that those who live more than a days drive should attend York sooner than later. If 2 or 3 rail trains bring you a lot of satisfaction than I urge you to move a trip to York up a few steps on your "bucket list". You will find the issues raised here; cell phones, opening the meet to nonmembers, strollers etc. etc. become background static compared to what you will see and learn! 

I believe York will still be a thriving show in 15 years with attendance of 10,000 or more, but it will likely only be held once a year in October.  I will be 89 but I will be there.

...Rich will have to lashup his Scooter with Ed's.

ROTFL!!!!  That was good!

However, I can guarantee that I will not be attending York 15 years from now.

you wont miss a thing on the post war front. The same train being bought over the next few years will be for sale again in 17 years when you arrive.

They will have to make wider aisles for all the scooters we will be riding. Maybe have motor scooter races in the parking lots?

Martin,

Don't wait till you are 55, attend at least one York meet to wet your appetite for that dinky small show in Se PA.!!

I think a preliminary question might be whether the National TCA will be around 15 yrs from now? As for the E.D.'s York meet: I certainly would expect the abandonment of the Red & White Hall, unless of course they choose to open both to Railroadiana and the G.P.!

Regardless I certainly hope to be around 15 yrs. hence just to see what happens.

If you eat scrapple sandwiches you won't be here in 15 years.

JMiller320, what do you call junk?

Like I said, One man's trash is another ones treasure.  Me I like the modern looking trains that are made to look scale.  Boxes of rusty old toys is not something I look for.

I don't like scrapple either.  Back when I was a lot younger we would gather at a local farm and butcher hogs.  It was fun and made for a long day.  We made scrapple with the left over parts and pieces and added more good meat than what you can buy in the store.  We averaged 15 hogs each time we did it.  Now if your talking bacon or sausage I'm there.

Demographics will eventually doom this hobby.  I was brought up with Lionel, Erector Sets and Kenner Girder and Panel sets.  From that point in time, several generations have matured with little exposure to what we remember as fun.  Jonny Astro anyone?

The children of this generational change are not likely to be involved with this hobby to any great extent.  We are really in the new golden age of toy train evolvement.  That is because we are able, at this time, to invest in our past and buy those things that could never be afforded, at the time, when we poured over catalogs, yearning for this or that, yet they did not appear under the Christmas Tree as presents.  With our "disposable" income we can recreate certain things that were dear to us as children.  Some of you have been life long toy train operators and may not understand certain elements of angst that I touch on.  Some of us are re-living the past because we can afford to.  In 15 to 20 years from now there will not be enough of us left to keep the hobby alive, in its present iteration.  No, it's not going to completly evaporate but it most certainly will become rarifed, which will limit the offerings of those companies that are still in business.  IMHO as a pragmatic.

David

I have attended every York show for the past 30 years. I have come with a broken foot, broken hand, missed weddings ( how dare they get married on York week), party's , etc. so yes I will be there in 15 years if at all possible. 

quote:

I think a preliminary question might be whether the National TCA will be around 15 yrs from now? As for the E.D.'s York meet: I certainly would expect the abandonment of the Red & White Hall, unless of course they choose to open both to Railroadiana and the G.P.!

The TCA will be around.

IMHO, sometime in the future, the TCA will need to either find external sponsors for the museum, or close it. I don't think any other toy /model train club has a physical presence to support. Its just not feasible in the long run.

Folks on this board love to predict the death of collecting. One only has to look to Ebay to see that collecting is alive and well. Its true that prices on most modern era items are off, but those items generally were "instant collectables", which usually don't hold their value. And the prices of lesser condition older trains were overinflated due to a period of rapid growth in the hobby.

I predict the Binnacle will make a return!

And no one will have a clue as to what it is...

George

No reason to do that.  You can be quite sure that collecting will be around long after the emphasis on operating diminishes.

In Standard Gauge there was a golden age in the late 20s and 30s. O-gauge saw a golden age in the 50s. Now most agree a new golden age exists with digital trains and exceptional detail.

There is no guarantee these companies MTH Lionel or anyone else will be around in 15 years or perhaps not making high end trains. This could create a new renaissance in train collecting and York could become a mecca of trading again.