York 15 years from now?

Scrapple will be available in a new, on-the-go form.

 

 

- Mike

If you mean York Fairgrounds would be changed to a more modern convention center, I doubt it due to the magic of the annual York Fair and other agricultural events. If you mean lured to a more modern convention center - that would be expensive and probably cost prohibitive for the hosts and attendees.

Martin

 

We are about the same age.  I went to my first York show a few years ago and have been at least once a year since.  Do not wait 15 years to visit.  Do it in the next 15 months.

 

O Scale trains have been a big segment of the model train business in recent years.  But there are a relatively small number of people who make those businesses go.  Many of them are at York.  The crews from Atlas, MTH and Lionel are all there along with other manufacturers or importers like Ross and Sunset.  And there are great opportunities to meet the super involved O gaugers how are helping to shape the hobby.  Go to the DCS users group meeting or Legacy breakfast, Thursday at Fridays and the Grandstand Meet.  Those events are all great places for O gauge operators and manufacturers to listen to each

other.

 

There are too many interesting trains see and too many interesting people to to meet to wait 15 years.  Go once in the next 15 months and then decide if you should wait 15 years before going again.  If you take that big a break between visits I bet you see some people in 2028 that you met in 2013. 

 

Maybe I should consider going sooner...

Martin

 

I have met folks from Hawaii, Alaska and multiple countries in Europe at York.  Come on out.

Martin:

I live in Atlanta and my son and I have both attended York.  I won't get into the "what will it be like in 2028" discussion.  Rather , I will encourage you to go now. 

York is within an hour to an hour and a half of the Harrisburg and Baltimore airports which makes flying in, renting a car and driving to York very easy.  Obviously the air and rental car are an added expense but, there are ways to mitigate this by booking way in advance.  Southwest flies into BWI, so that already gives you a leg up on the cost of the plane ticket from Texas.  There are plenty of hotels within an easy drive of York, so you don't have to spend an arm or leg for lodging.

Your purchases at York can be boxed and shipped from the fairground using the on site UPS store.

Now, all of this will cost you more than someone who lives within a few hours of York but, as several have pointed out, you attend York as much for the experience as you do to buy trains.  York is the "Woodstock" of toy train meets and you shouldn't wait to attend your first.  I kept putting it off myself and regret that now.

Curt

 

My feeling is that Ken has summed it up quite well.  I see nothing happening that might counter this evaluation, now or in the future.

Well, maybe, but that's what was being said 20 years ago.  And we still can get trains and there's still a York Meet.  I don't see the perceived end in our lifetime, at least not until aliens eviscerate the Earth.

I don'r recall that being said 20 years ago.  Back then (1993 or so), optimism reigned supreme in this segment of the hobby and the future could not have been brighter.  But some demographic factors have changed and they are pretty much irreversible.  That's not a doom-and-gloom prophesy, just a realistic look at things as they are now and are apt to be down the road.

 

Have "younger people"  ever been attracted into the hobby?  It seems like most people get into it as the retirment years approach.

 

For these reasons I am confident that York will be there 15 years from now and it should be a similar mix of people as right now.

 

Martin

 

No, it won't be the same.  The boom times in last 20 years in O gauge were driven by guys who had or had wanted to have Lionel trains as kids in the 1940s and early to mid 1950s.  The hot market for O gauge trans to collect or operate, the businesses developed to serve that market and the millions invested in new tooling and technology in the last 20 years came about when these guys were in their peak earning years in a growing economy.  The average home was getting larger just as these guys kids were moving out so there was plenty of room to build layouts and store or display collections.

 

By the late 1950s Lionel sales were in steep decline.  At the same time the American passenger train was in steep decline as well.  If the number one toy you wanted for Christmas as a kid was a Lionel train and if you grew up riding trains for regular travel you are likely to be 60 or older today.  There will not be a comeback from this demographic fact.  That doesn't mean that there won't be any three rail trains in the future but it does mean that the organization and show most associated with three rail trains will see declining membership, attendance and manufacturer focus as the market for three rail trains naturally contracts. 

 

Look at the actions of our leading manufacturers in recent years.  While Lionel and MTH continue to offer a large number of O gauge trains targeted at collectors and operators they have both focused on finding growth opportunities in other market segments.  For Lionel it has resulted in their efforts to get train sets into large retailers for the holidays.  For MTH it has meant directing most of their investments in new tooling into HO and European O scale products.

 

There are still exciting new products and some of the best technology in model railroading is available in O gauge.  But get to York while the getting is good! 

 

Its my understanding that the current demographics is the same as previous demographics.  Mostly  55+ white guys.

 

While that might describe many of the York attendees it is not universally true.

 

Last year at York I recall talking to:

 

Landon Eshback, a young man of about 12.  I helped show Landon and his grandfather how to operate the trains on the MTH display layout with the browsers on their smart phones.

 

Mike Pitogo, a young father and 2 rail O scaler. 

 

Kent Johnson, an editor with CTT who I believe is in his 30s.

 

Two generations of the Battista family.  Rich is the distinguished modeler and video producer.  His kids are school aged and help out with layout building and in Rich's booth at york.

 

Three generations of the Lash family from about age 7 to 70.

 

Make the trip and see how many stereotypes you can blow up.

 

If I can fly from Seattle to Baltimore via Atlanta doing it from Texas will be a snap.  Save up some money for the fall or next spring and make the trip with friends or family.  Take a day or two to visit the Strasburg Railroad, Gettysburg, the B&O museum or Washington DC.

 

I doubt you will leave and say "I wish we hadn't done that until 2028." 

BTW, Martin,if according to current analysis the demographic of 3 rail train enthusiasts is mostly 55+ white guys, be aware current demographic trends also show male caucasions of any age bracket will in the not too distant future become a minority segment of the U.S. population at large. 

Its my understanding that the current demographics is the same as previous demographics.  Mostly  55+ white guys.

 .

 

Gee, I thought we already are a minority segment!  Works for me, because when you're considered to be a minority you can raise more fuss and not get lambasted for expressing your views.

 

But I think we call can generally agree that there were two "Golden Ages" in the hobby:  The immediate postwar period and the 1990s through the early years of the current century.  Some of us were fortunate enough to see both.

Why do people take it as a given that there will not be any success attracting kids into the hobby long-term?  Look at "Thomas the Tank" to take one example.  Now there are knock-off toys and shows as well -- "Chuggington" etc.  Both are based on the reality that little boys love trains. 

 

Now, this isn't to say the current demographics aren't changing, for reasons discused at length above.  But what data are people looking at when they conclude that young kids today will not pick up and enjoy the hobby? 

 

I ask the question not to be argumentative, but because I grew up in the 1970s and 1980s, well after the post-war glory years and well before the golden age that began in the 1990s.  And yet I stayed with the hobby.  And we had video games as competition.  And I played sports too.  What is the driving factor forcing the conclusion the hobby will decline -- in other words that it cannot be successful at picking up more young partiicpants?  Stated differently, why is the assumption that kids today won't stay with the hobby? My sense is that a better job could be done in capitalizing on crossover interest into the O gauge hobby. 

 

Again, not looking to trigger nasty arguments, just an honest, open discussion.  Many thanks. 

Based on personal observation by myself, friends, neighbors and relatives, the allure and attraction of the Thomas the Tank phenomena in early childhood is fleeting and wanes considerably for the majority of male preschoolers four years and older. Having a friend who owns a fairly large preschool/daycare facility with a full time staff of thirty and a stepdaughter who's a teacher of a preK class in a public school in my area, I've been told as the boys progress into older age classes their interest in Thomas is supplanted a preoccupation and interaction with action figures, hotwheels type cars, video games, T-ball, etc. and an ever lessening interest in playing with trains.

Ken,

It's an interesting anecdote certainly, no question.  Anyone have any insight into the marketing research that went into Lionel's Thomas set?  Are they considering that a "one and done" starter set or a building block / stepping stone set?  TIA.

Some certainly will, but almost surely not in the numbers seen with the pre-Baby Boom and Baby Boom generations.  To be sure, those numbers just aren't there when one considers the birth rate in subsequent generations combined with the numbers of young people actually involved with trains--toy or otherwise--in those same generations.  It will require more than mere media or other secondary types of exposure.

 

That's what analysts said about Apple in the late 1990's.

 

Gerry

I am both hopeful and depressed.  Depressed because our numbers will undoubtedly be far fewer (every hobby is smaller as the options grow).  But hopeful because technology will allow us to do more amazing things than ever before.  Even as the market shrinks the technology will allow it to be profitable to reach out and develop  things we never dreamed of.  My son is 8 and not engaged with trains but in 20 years he may embrace it out of nostelgia for me.  I say he isn't engaged, but as we speak he is on an Amtrack train from Pittsburgh to San Diego.  Maybe this will ignite a fire in him for trains (or forever exstinguish it, as he is a competitive gymnist and almost broke his arm falling out of the top bunk in a sleeper car on day 1 of the trip).

That's an "Apples" and oranges comparison.  There is no similarity whatsoever between what is happening with the hobby vs. what happened with Apple.  In the case of toy trains it's simply a matter of very obvious and irreversible demographic shifts.  

 

Those of us who have been using Apple products from the very beginning had little doubt that the firm would see a bright future due to the leading-edge technology involved even way back then (which has actually been enhanced by demographic changes). 

quote:

Those of us who have been using Apple products from the very beginning had little doubt that the firm would see a bright future due to the leading-edge technology involved even way back then (which has actually been enhanced by demographic changes).

 

Perhaps I am mistaken. I thought Bill Gates propped up Apple when it was on the verge of going under. He did so to avoid having Microsoft become a monopoly.

 

Microsoft is helping Apple once again, with their horrid new operating system, Windows 8. It might be great for smart phones and tablets. Not so much for personal computers/workstations.

I think York 15 years from now will be less crowded...but it will seem more crowded due to people standing and blocking the aisles shooting photos and talking on 'phones.

 

Regrettably, O-gauge model railroading is on the decline as are some other hobbies such as stamp collecting or philately on the decline. If one looks it’s easy to see an analogy between the demise of these two with similar factors contributing to their decline. Stamp collecting like O-gauge model railroading, especially among the youth is continuously waning due to lack of ongoing interest for them (or even exposure to them for that matter), which is bad because if any hobby is to survive, the next generation has to enthusiastically pick it up. There are many reasons for it, and they all seemed to have occurred more-or-less simultaneously.

Here are just a few similar reasons why both stamp collecting/philately and O-gauge trains are on the decline, and why they likely will be dead:

First, there is...dum, da, da, da...the Internet and cellphones and email and webcams, just to start. Our advancement in telecommunications has changed our daily way of life so that very, very few people today write actual hardcopy letters to other people now, reducing the need for stamps in general too, and that reduces general interest in stamps. In our age of convenience, hardcopy letters are often unacceptably slow nowadays as well. This is akin to the way people have become accustomed to moving about in society today. With trucks, airplanes and cars being so prevalent, the use of railroads for moving people has seen a dramatic decline, especially our youth who see train travel vs. using an automobile as inconvenient and limiting for traveling short distances and much slower for traveling long distances as compared to traveling by flying.

Second, there is overproduction of stamps just as many will argue there’s a similar overproduction of O-gauge model trains today. In the past, there were only enough stamps that were needed for postage use only, making them interesting to collect a few of them too. However, now there are is a near-infinite variety of postage stamps, with a near-infinite number of featured people, places, things, subjects and topics on the stamps. Despite the general reduction of stamps in actual postage, the number of stamp types only exponentially increased in recent times. This is happening to O-gauge model trains today too as witnessed by both various comments on this site as well as the recent spate of recent blow-out sales. For collectors, there’s greatly diminished fun or relative value in collecting anything if there is a near-infinite amount of them. That is aggravating.

Third, there are the new hobbies, so to speak, and the devotion to real value. Many people, especially the youth, now enjoy new hobbies, whether they would be playing computer games to storing more music on their pads or playing fantasy sports. Newer hobbies always crowd out older hobbies, forcing them to die off. Some older hobbies still remain strong and desirable for people of all ages from fishing to gardening to embroidery. However, in addition to stamp collecting, any hobbies like O-gauge trains that involve collecting tangible items have declined, since personal space has become more valuable than ever nowadays (again as attested to by recent threads on this site regarding storage of boxes and lack of suitable places for building permanent layouts), and careful devotion to time has never been more important. All this means that anything to collect must have at least some inherent value. Thus, at least some collecting hobbies have a safety net, like the collecting of coins, antiques or old artworks, since they all can have an immense history attached to them and /or economic value. Stamps have only been in existence, since 1840, and O-gauge toy trains for even less time. Coins may have declined in usage, but they also can be made from gold and silver, securing at least some of their value too. Stamps are just paper and O-gauge trains just plastic and non-precious metal.

A fourth reason is that stamp collecting similar to O-gauge model trains are both currently popular among well-off retirees, and the Internet has made searching for stamps (and toy trains) and the purchase of stamps (and toy trains) much easier. However, if you would go to a stamp show (or toy train show), the vast majority of people there will be elderly, and there will never be a large number of young people interested in stamps (or O-gauge trains) ever again. Numerous stamp shops (and LHS) have closed down, over the past few decades; and many stamp dealers (and internet train dealers and auction houses) only buy and sell stamps (trains) in lots now. Only the rare stamps (trains) will ever have considerable economic value, attached to them, and they can be added to the collecting of old artworks with ongoing demand, even in the future. However, that would make stamp collecting (model train collecting) for what they are...extinct with stamp collecting and in steady decline for toy train collecting.
So, after all this being said, this is the future of both stamp collecting and O-gauge model railroading ...decline and eventual death for stamps(except again for the rare stamps to be valued and collected as old artworks) and waning interest in O-gauge trains . It may be sad in some cases, but hobbies do decline and die out, but then new hobbies are born to replace them.

 

So, unfortunately as interest in our beloved O-gauge hobby wanes, showcases for it like York, will continue to experience declining attendance that will mitigate a corresponding scaling down both in scope and breadth. The only constant in the world is change and change is inevitably coming to York even if we don't agree with it or like it. It’s happening now and will continue happening!

 

Re: Joe Hohmann, crowded is relative. With fewer attendess and less allotted space for the event, it will likely seem as crowded then as it does now. I don't however see phone usage with much relevance to crowding.

Hope there are still enough people to warrant having a big hall and big show.  I've seen how the 1/24 scale slot car collecting hobby has gone.   I got interested in big cars back in 86.  I bought lots of cars from ads I put in model car magazines, stops at hobby shops and business cards passed around everywhere.  Over the years, everything got funneled to Ebay, where sales were certain, fast and market prices. 
The two big shows in Chicago lost most of the big stuff with HO becoming dominant as that scale reached a younger group than the big cars. 

 

Most of the guys I know nationwide that collect 1/24 don't bother coming to the show anymore.   It used to be a great time for comeraderie and meeting voices on phones.   Prices have dropped for several years as guys get what they want and there is no younger group to keep demand strong. 

Granted trains have a more timeless appeal than 1/24 slot cars, probably their strongest appeal is to guys who played with them in 40's- 70's.  Younger guys probably have more interest in HO and % wise it will probably be a stronger as years roll by.

 

I wouldn't expect large scale to disappear, but how many of the guys on this forum will be going to shows and actively pursuing more "stuff" in 15 years.  For me I will be 77 years old at that time.  How about the rest of you?   I wouldn't be surprised if the average age on this forum isn't around 55-65.

Age of members would be an interesting poll for someone with a premium membership to post. A while back there was a poll concerning location of members that was extremely popular totaling many pages before interest and responses finally waned. If forumites are honest and forthcoming of their ages, an age poll would be similarly enlightening and informative. Of course, Rich, already has this demographic age info for this site's members but he likely won't for whatever reasons divulge it and make that forum info public nor does he have any obligation to make that info known to us.

You can be quite sure that the age demographic of forum participants is pretty much in line with that of the hobby as a whole, even if very slightly skewed to slightly younger "digital age" participants.

 

It's always important to keep in mind that a great many O gauge enthusiasts, in all age groups, do not participate on this or any other online forum.  I can't begin to tell you the number of contributors to the magazine, to cite just one example, who have no particular interest in online discussion groups.  Has to be about 50% or more in the nearly six years I have been editor of the magazine.  And there also are a good number who visit here from time to time, or even regularly, who do not actively participate.

 

 

 

More importantly, will the funnel cakes at the York Meet still have powdered sugar 15 years from now??!!

It's true that interest in collecting things tanks when the producers start making "collector editions"...stamps, beer cans, 50 new Hallmark ornaments each year, trains themed to honor a ship that was sunk by a iceberg, etc.

I like Brian's futuristic flight of fancy, but I don't think you went far enough buddy.

 

Twenty or so years from now the TCA will respond to it's membership complants about the cost of York hotel rates, $34,596.00 a night. Couple this with the old age of the OGR gang who can no longer make the trip, all TCA members will be issued a remote access helmet.

Place said helmet on your head, lean back in your recliner and tune into the York meet that is really only a computer program hosted by Hoopla.

Anything you purchase there will be sent to your home via USPS, UPS, or FEDEX.

 

Of course there will be no picture taking or your program will be immediately changed to a cooking show on how to make scrapple.

Mario, I couldn't comment on the hotel rates since my time machine landed right onto the Fairground's parking area.  I would have just stayed in the time machine all weekend.  But I can tell you the flying RV/time machine parking rates were $1000..... per night!

 

One thing I failed to mention in my report (there was so much to see) is the entertainment area they have in the space that Atlas O use to occupy.  It's an attempt to attract young people into the model train hobby.  Each night is a different act.  The day I was there, Justin Bieber (at that point in his career, a heavy metal rocker) was the headliner.

 

(I'll take that straight jacket now) 

One marker to consider:

 

What was the attendance 15 years ago?

What was the attendance last year ago?

 

This will give you a hint of what is happening.

 

What are the real numbers?

 

15 years from now UPS and FEDEX will have merged and the new company will be called FED UP.

I would guess the numbers are close, even though TCA membership is down. Surely someone in the ED has the actual numbers.