My Dad got a Lionel Train set in ~1949, his dad built a layout with lights a tunnel etc. Unfortunately, my grand father passed a couple years later. The train survived except at some point my dad took apart the engine and it spend the next 70 years in a cigar box. I tell you this because I was aware of the that train, and wanted to see it run. I used to push the cars around the track. That train spent most of its life in boxes and many, many moves. I inherited 20 years ago, but with kids, career, and what not never had the time, space or money for trains. My boys are grown and gone. 3 years ago on a whim I took the engine in and was able to get it fixed. I built a small layout and was hooked! 18 months ago I built a 11x6 track in the garage, and bought some engines new. But cars used at a show and a bunch of other stuff that looked fun. At 62 many consider me a Boomer (kind of but not really) but automatically assume I have been in the hobby for years. I talk Oldtimers, and those that actually worked for the railroads and am always amazed at the knowledge and experience they represent. I grew up in Nebraska and now live in North Texas. Trains were never part of my life. Although I have always watched trains when I saw them and never passed up an opportunity to look at layouts. So my addiction was probably always latent in me. So of the intensity of this hobby, the proto-typers, bolt cutters, the ones loyal to a particular line impress, and I get it. But that is not me. I just want to build layouts (that is my therapy and how I spend my free time.) Using an IPad or phone is fun, but so is using the old conventional for my dad's train! Nothing is quite like the pellet smoke and the "real" whistle. I am not a collector, I will never buy a car or engine that I can't play with. I don't save boxes (who has that kind of room?) And am not really concerned was happens to my trains when I am gone. I just hope my wife will give it to interested people. So no, this Hobby is not Dying. Like anything, time changes everything. The technology over the life of this hobby is staggering-all for a toy! As with anything, change is hard on a lot of people. There is always the desire to return to simpler times. (It drives me nuts to find figures that do not come from 1950s!) I just hope I live long enough to see the trains that hover in the air!
@Hudson J1e posted:Wow Ryan, that would really be great. I don't know if it is feasible but I hope they do the smaller engines as well as large engines. I have a MTH 0-6-0 that I love and it is one of the best running MTH engines I have ever owned. I had a chance to buy a (-2) 0-8-0 but it was in green in Southern paint scheme and now I totally regret not buying it. The smaller engines can run on any layout so you would think they would sell well but it seems the larger engines sell better. I am not sure why.
Ironically, I spoke to MTH about it after they announced their NYC Hudsons. I'm hopeful. We'll see. I have 4 MTH 2-rail locomotives and love every single one. They're great runners.
There's certainly a market. Even Tangent recently released their first 2-rail piece of rolling stock and now Kadee is making 2-rail trucks and wheel sets. Atlas has really expanded their 2-rail line. I think MTH would do well if they started offering it again.
@CR Cole posted:My Dad got a Lionel Train set in ~1949, his dad built a layout with lights a tunnel etc. Unfortunately, my grand father passed a couple years later. The train survived except at some point my dad took apart the engine and it spend the next 70 years in a cigar box. I tell you this because I was aware of the that train, and wanted to see it run. I used to push the cars around the track. That train spent most of its life in boxes and many, many moves. I inherited 20 years ago, but with kids, career, and what not never had the time, space or money for trains. My boys are grown and gone. 3 years ago on a whim I took the engine in and was able to get it fixed. I built a small layout and was hooked! 18 months ago I built a 11x6 track in the garage, and bought some engines new. But cars used at a show and a bunch of other stuff that looked fun. At 62 many consider me a Boomer (kind of but not really) but automatically assume I have been in the hobby for years. I talk Oldtimers, and those that actually worked for the railroads and am always amazed at the knowledge and experience they represent. I grew up in Nebraska and now live in North Texas. Trains were never part of my life. Although I have always watched trains when I saw them and never passed up an opportunity to look at layouts. So my addiction was probably always latent in me. So of the intensity of this hobby, the proto-typers, bolt cutters, the ones loyal to a particular line impress, and I get it. But that is not me. I just want to build layouts (that is my therapy and how I spend my free time.) Using an IPad or phone is fun, but so is using the old conventional for my dad's train! Nothing is quite like the pellet smoke and the "real" whistle. I am not a collector, I will never buy a car or engine that I can't play with. I don't save boxes (who has that kind of room?) And am not really concerned was happens to my trains when I am gone. I just hope my wife will give it to interested people. So no, this Hobby is not Dying. Like anything, time changes everything. The technology over the life of this hobby is staggering-all for a toy! As with anything, change is hard on a lot of people. There is always the desire to return to simpler times. (It drives me nuts to find figures that do not come from 1950s!) I just hope I live long enough to see the trains that hover in the air!
I think that's one of the unheralded aspects of this hobby- it's very therapeutic to build a layout and run trains. Something about it!!!
Ryan, I agree with everything you are saying above about 2 rail. I don't want to derail this thread any further but I must mention that Joe F was one of my favorite guys in the 2 rail side of the hobby. He was truly a great guy. I got to go to his house once to see (as I put it) where the magic happens! He was a great host. Joe also did me a few favors over the years that I will always be appreciative of. I really miss seeing him at the shows. Not only did he do incredible conversion work at a very reasonable price he also had a very nice layout. He called it his "test track" but it was a great layout. Anyone would be proud to own such a layout. I have one of his conversions (a MTH Hudson) though he didn't convert it for me but I bought it from the guy he converted it for. Joe is very much missed in the O scale hobby.
Sad to say, but in my opinion, if the "under 30 crowd" has no interest in O Gauge, and simply will not join in, then the Demographics don't lie.
O Gauge will be substantially (but not totally) gone in another 30 years. It will be a "super-niche" hobby.
The hobby isn't dying. It's morphing, which has happened several times over the past century.
There's more diversity of interests in the hobby. The person who operates by timetable and train order with correct equipment for their era and locale coexists with the person who wants to run double headed 736 Berkshires pulling a 10 car Canadian Pacific streamliner.
The internet means that you don't need to be a member of a model railroad organization to be connected to the hobby.
@cbq9911a posted:The hobby isn't dying. It's morphing, which has happened several times over the past century.
There's more diversity of interests in the hobby. The person who operates by timetable and train order with correct equipment for their era and locale coexists with the person who wants to run double headed 736 Berkshires pulling a 10 car Canadian Pacific streamliner.
The internet means that you don't need to be a member of a model railroad organization to be connected to the hobby.
I completely agree with you. I think often the people who say it’s dying are looking at numbers of organizations like the NMRA or a model railroad club. The internet in many aspects has replaced the need to belong to those if you do not want to. I’m not in any model railroad club, but have tons of modeler friends and we visit each other’s houses and run trains, etc. None of us belong to any formal club. And most of us met through the internet (YouTube, social media, here).
@Hudson J1e posted:Ryan, I agree with everything you are saying above about 2 rail. I don't want to derail this thread any further but I must mention that Joe F was one of my favorite guys in the 2 rail side of the hobby. He was truly a great guy. I got to go to his house once to see (as I put it) where the magic happens! He was a great host. Joe also did me a few favors over the years that I will always be appreciative of. I really miss seeing him at the shows. Not only did he do incredible conversion work at a very reasonable price he also had a very nice layout. He called it his "test track" but it was a great layout. Anyone would be proud to own such a layout. I have one of his conversions (a MTH Hudson) though he didn't convert it for me but I bought it from the guy he converted it for. Joe is very much missed in the O scale hobby.
I absolutely agree. We lost a gem when we lost Joe. I have several locomotives he converted. I’m not the owner who had them converted, but the work is incredible. He’s definitely missed.
@Mannyrock posted:if the "under 30 crowd" has no interest in O Gauge
I hear ya, but ...
On what was the beginning of your hypothesis based? I don't understand, but I do see that you've hedged your bets by including the word "if".
We'll need to see real data. We won't accept a hunch or a couple of occasional, or only lightly-related, observations. (This goes for all of us.)
Where's the proof? If there is none then we can't accept the hypothesis.
As far as I can tell they do have an interest -- and this in spite of having many, many, many other distractions in this modern world.
Mike
Well Mike, obviously, nobody has any concrete statistical data. If there were any, then the OP would not have posted this question.
The OP asked for opinions. I gave mine.
I have only been in the O Gauge world for 3 years, but the four shows I've been to, and the large majority of pictures posted on this Board of shows, clubs and meets, all look like casting calls for "No Country for Old Men."
That having been said, I have occasionally seen some youngsters in their mid-40s at the events.
I'll be dead in 30 years, so I'll have a lot more important things to worry about than whether people still play with O Gauge trains, . . . like how to get out of my coffin. :-)
Mannyrock
@Mannyrock posted:Sad to say, but in my opinion, if the "under 30 crowd" has no interest in O Gauge, and simply will not join in, then the Demographics don't lie.
O Gauge will be substantially (but not totally) gone in another 30 years. It will be a "super-niche" hobby.
@ryanexpresstrains posted:I completely agree with you. I think often the people who say it’s dying are looking at numbers of organizations like the NMRA or a model railroad club. The internet in many aspects has replaced the need to belong to those if you do not want to. I’m not in any model railroad club, but have tons of modeler friends and we visit each other’s houses and run trains, etc. None of us belong to any formal club. And most of us met through the internet (YouTube, social media, here).
This is very interesting discussion. I think Ryan ( @Mannyrock and @cbq9911a) bring up some very good points. Just observing train shows and meets it does appear to be that the "under 30" isn't showing up in big numbers but we must remember that today's generation (for the most part) doesn't believe in joining what is in my opinion worthwhile organizations like the TCA and the NMRA. So how do we tell just how much of the "under 30 crowd" has a real interest in the hobby and is participating in the hobby? I honestly don't know. When I was under 30 I didn't belong to any organizations. I just didn't have a lot of disposable cash but I had a real interest in scale model trains (HO). I also spent a lot of time with my friends doing different things away from the hobby but I did try to keep up with it. I think we have to come up with a new way of judging interest in the hobby due to changes in society.
@Hudson J1e posted:This is very interesting discussion. I think Ryan ( @Mannyrock and @cbq9911a) bring up some very good points. Just observing train shows and meets it does appear to be that the "under 30" isn't showing up in big numbers but we must remember that today's generation (for the most part) doesn't believe in joining what is in my opinion worthwhile organizations like the TCA and the NMRA. So how do we tell just how much of the "under 30 crowd" has a real interest in the hobby and is participating in the hobby? I honestly don't know. When I was under 30 I didn't belong to any organizations. I just didn't have a lot of disposable cash but I had a real interest in scale model trains (HO). I also spent a lot of time with my friends doing different things away from the hobby but I did try to keep up with it. I think we have to come up with a new way of judging interest in the hobby due to changes in society.
And disposable income is a factor too. I have a modeler friend who belongs to a local model railroad club. In the past year, they’ve had 10 new members join who are all under the age of 22. They come every Thursday and run trains. Most of those young guys own maybe one locomotive and don’t have a home layout, money being the problem. I feel like when you really start to see people get “back to or into the hobby” is around 30 or so once you’re well clear of college, you have a kid or two, and some disposable income to have a hobby.
I’ll say again- YouTube and social media groups in a lot of ways have replaced local clubs or organizations for connectivity within the hobby. And look at the sheer number of excellent YouTubers we have, even just in 3-rail, who are all in their 20’s, 30’s, or early 40’s: Both Chris’, Sid, Jason, Norm, RJ…just to name a few. And I’m barely scratching the surface.
@Hudson J1e posted:Just observing train shows and meets it does appear to be that the "under 30" isn't showing up in big numbers but we must remember that today's generation (for the most part) doesn't believe in joining what is in my opinion worthwhile organizations like the TCA and the NMRA. So how do we tell just how much of the "under 30 crowd" has a real interest in the hobby and is participating in the hobby? I honestly don't know. When I was under 30 I didn't belong to any organizations. I just didn't have a lot of disposable cash but I had a real interest in scale model trains (HO). I also spent a lot of time with my friends doing different things away from the hobby but I did try to keep up with it. I think we have to come up with a new way of judging interest in the hobby due to changes in society.
Interests and activities change during a lifetime. I quit model railroading at age 13 and didn't get back into the O gauge hobby for 39 years. Since then (more than twenty years), I've built two model railroads (both still in operation), published several articles in OGR magazine, and am still buying, running and posting model trains on the OGR Forum. At age 30, I was too busy with family, career, and flying airplanes to have an interest in model trains. Then the kids grew up, there was more time and money for a hobby, and the need to occupy myself (and the kids and grandkids) in retirement...
MELGAR
@ryanexpresstrains posted:And disposable income is a factor too. I have a modeler friend who belongs to a local model railroad club. In the past year, they’ve had 10 new members join who are all under the age of 22. They come every Thursday and run trains. Most of those young guys own maybe one locomotive and don’t have a home layout, money being the problem. I feel like when you really start to see people get “back to or into the hobby” is around 30 or so once you’re well clear of college, you have a kid or two, and some disposable income to have a hobby.
I’ll say again- YouTube and social media groups in a lot of ways have replaced local clubs or organizations for connectivity within the hobby. And look at the sheer number of excellent YouTubers we have, even just in 3-rail, who are all in their 20’s, 30’s, or early 40’s: Both Chris’, Sid, Jason, Norm, RJ…just to name a few. And I’m barely scratching the surface.
Ryan I agree with everything you are saying but I also feel that YouTube and Social Media should not be the be all and end all for participating in the hobby. Obviously, everyone is free to do as they please but for me it isn't. In my opinion attending shows and meets and other train related activities in person are just fun! You can't beat it! And to be fair as there were some famous Youtubers at York which I think is great for the hobby because it gives everyone who isn't famous a chance to meet them and get inspiration. Perhaps just maybe it gets some of the non famous train folks out of their houses and basements!
@Hudson J1e posted:Ryan I agree with everything you are saying but I also feel that YouTube and Social Media should not be the be all and end all for participating in the hobby. Obviously, everyone is free to do as they please but for me it isn't. In my opinion attending shows and meets and other train related activities in person are just fun! You can't beat it! And to be fair as there were some famous Youtubers at York which I think is great for the hobby because it gives everyone who isn't famous a chance to meet them and get inspiration. Perhaps just maybe it gets some of the non famous train folks out of their houses and basements!
No I agree with you. I love attending shows (hence the initial video after attending 3 in a week). The people are the best part of the hobby!
@Mannyrock posted:Sad to say, but in my opinion, if the "under 30 crowd" has no interest in O Gauge, and simply will not join in, then the Demographics don't lie.
O Gauge will be substantially (but not totally) gone in another 30 years. It will be a "super-niche" hobby.
Interest is but one component of being in this hobby; being able to afford it while pursuing a career or steady gainful employment successfully, having a family, a car, a home that you can call your own, and having actual free time to are also critical components.
Few under 30 have those criteria secured and many under 40 (or even 50) do not.
The active entry feed point for this hobby tends toward an older group.
@ryanexpresstrains posted:The people are the best part of the hobby!
That summarizes most every hobby! Our Corvette club says, comes for the cars, stay for the people!
One can get into the O gauge train hobby for very little money IF he will be satisfied with post war equipment and use. I could afford a few $1000 plus engines but have not seen the need to spend that sum for a O gauge train hobby item. More can be had buying used in vintage trains, vintage audio, old boats, old tools, etc you name it.
Charlie
I thought about this thread after seeing a recent Trainworld video about Vision Line engines and Lionel trains generally. Based on Trainworld's comments from Ken Sr. and Ken Jr., it sounds like O gauge train sales are booming. Ryan from Lionel concurred, and said sales have exceeded expections. Among other things, Lionel had to double its production of the Big Boys, I think he said. (And the Vision Big Boy has been run before with huge sales numbers.)
It was specifically mentioned by Ken Sr. that so far (dealers are still getting them in) they have sold a million dollars worth of Big Boys (!)(and that's just one dealership), and orders for the Triplex are going through the roof. If $2800 engines are selling like that, it stands to reason that sales of lower priced engines - and sets - must also be doing well. Sure doesn't sound like the O gauge hobby is dying at all!
@breezinup posted:I thought about this thread after seeing a recent Trainworld video about Vision Line engines and Lionel trains generally. Based on Trainworld's comments from Ken Sr. and Ken Jr., it sounds like O gauge train sales are booming. Ryan from Lionel concurred, and said sales have exceeded expections. Among other things, Lionel had to double its production of the Big Boys, I think he said. (And the Vision Big Boy has been run before with huge sales numbers!)
It was specifically mentioned by Trainworld that just their dealership has sold a million dollars worth of Big Boys so far (!), and orders for the Triplex are going through the roof. If $2500 engines are selling like that, it stands to reason that sales of lower priced engines - and sets - must also be doing well. Sure doesn't sound like the O gauge hobby is dying at all!
That is fantastic news! I know my local hobby shop has had record sales for several years running now. As I mentioned in the video, it’s my observation that the hobby is thriving. Exciting times!
@breezinup posted:If $2500 engines are selling like that, it stands to reason that sales of lower priced engines - and sets - must also be doing well. Sure doesn't sound like the O gauge hobby is dying at all!
I hear ya, but ...
I'm quite happy and excited for their success but I don't buy your logic here.
If they had sold a million dollars worth of starter sets, or at least trumpeted that fact that they've sold as many starter sets as top-of-the-line Big Boys, or better yet 5 times as many, then I might agree.
Now, having said this I don't think that the hobby is dying, in any way, shape or form -- but Train World's comments, and your follow-up logic, by themselves do not back it up.
It's the people who are buying the starter sets now that will keep this hobby alive 25 years from now. Based on demographics, and actuarial tables, those buying the most expensive Big Boys today will probably have passed on by then. We thank every last one of them for their support of the hobby at it's high end, but we probably need even more help presently on the incoming side.
Don't you agree?
Mike
Interesting how this topic comes up every now and then. We need to keep in mind that many factors have changed since the middle of the last century, including the population, value of the dollar, etc. A million dollars worth of $2,500 Lionel Big Boys comes out to only 400 units. Not that many, really, worldwide, or even nationwide. It's all a matter of proportionate perspective.
I wouldn't say that in today's economy, O scale trains sales are necessarily dying. But on the other hand, they're not necessarily thriving, either. It's more like they're just hanging on. The question is, for how much longer?
@Yellowstone Special posted:A million dollars worth of $2,500 Lionel Big Boys comes out to only 400 units. Not that many, really, worldwide, or even nationwide. It's all a matter of proportionate perspective.
As mentioned in my comment, the million dollars worth of Big Boy sales is just for Trainworld. Just that one dealer, and only for their sales so far. What sales have been so far nationwide for all dealers, noone knows except Lionel, but obviously total sales have been way more.
@Mellow Hudson Mike posted:I hear ya, but ...
I'm quite happy and excited for their success but I don't buy your logic here.
If they had sold a million dollars worth of starter sets, or at least trumpeted that fact that they've sold as many starter sets as top-of-the-line Big Boys, or better yet 5 times as many, then I might agree.
Now, having said this I don't think that the hobby is dying, in any way, shape or form -- but Train World's comments, and your follow-up logic, by themselves do not back it up.
It's the people who are buying the starter sets now that will keep this hobby alive 25 years from now. Based on demographics, and actuarial tables, those buying the most expensive Big Boys today will probably have passed on by then. We thank every last one of them for their support of the hobby at it's high end, but we probably need even more help presently on the incoming side.
Don't you agree?
Mike
From everything mentioned and written about in threads and comments for quite a while, Lionel sells a whole lot more starter sets and LionChief engines than it does high dollar engines. That's their bread and butter. Lionel has indicated that the LionChief line has been a tremendous hit, and is their most popular line of engines by a wide margin. Not to mention the tremendous traction that relatively inexpensive Polar Express sets have given to train sales over the fairly recent years, which Lionel has commented on. Obviously I'm not privy to any "classified" inside knowledge, but based on what has been heard about and read about, no, I can't agree with your premise.
When the hobby was dying in the late 1960s Lionel catalogs went from the heights of the 1950s to rather sad small catalogs. The continued presence of 200 page wishbooks suggests they are optimistic and doing reasonably well, if not even gangbusters. Obviously the demise of K-Line and Weaver, and the shriveling of Williams by Bachmann were bad for the hobby. MTH, having threatened to disappear, is still issuing daily product bulletins, and Atlas is back making some stuff. So probably not the end of the hobby, just change.
@Mellow Hudson Mike posted:If they had sold a million dollars worth of starter sets, or at least trumpeted that fact that they've sold as many starter sets as top-of-the-line Big Boys, or better yet 5 times as many, then I might agree.
I would bet big online retail sells a ton of starter sets vs hobby stores that cater to the enthusiast. I have bought pretty much every one of the lionchief starter sets for the kids - and all but a few of them came from bezos purely because of price. I think they are doing just fine - they are owned by private equity and if they weren’t doing fine it would be obvious to everyone with less products and people.
@breezinup posted:As mentioned in my comment, the million dollars worth of Big Boy sales is just for Trainworld. Just that one dealer, and only for their sales so far. What sales have been so far nationwide for all dealers, noone knows except Lionel, but obviously total sales have been way more.
Yes, I realize that those are just Trainworld’s Big Boy sales and of course, Lionel’s total overall sales would be way more. But I still think O scale manufacturers make just enough to keep going.
Is the hobby dying? Not likely. I went to train shows in Kalamazoo and Lansing Michigan two weekends in a row. My son noted the wide range of people in attendance at the Lansing show. It was so busy it was a challenge walking down the aisles. As we were enjoying a lunch at a local diner, a family sat down next to us having just been at the show. The youngest of 3 boys was 6 - all were quite enthusiastic about trains including mom. They were into HO - we had quite the chat.
@Yellowstone Special posted:Yes, I realize that those are just Trainworld’s Big Boy sales and of course, Lionel’s total overall sales would be way more. But I still think O scale manufacturers make just enough to keep going.
Lionel is owned by (and has been for quite a while now) Wellsprings Capital Management Group, an investment firm. I doubt they have any interest in holding companies that "make just enough to keep going." They're not doing this for the fun of it. If a company isn't significantly profitable, it's not going to be in their portfolio.
BTW, the Wellsprings Capital Management mint car 
@breezinup posted:Lionel is owned by (and has been for quite a while now) Wellsprings Capital Management Group, an investment firm. I doubt they have any interest in holding companies that "make just enough to keep going." They're not doing this for the fun of it. If a company isn't significantly profitable, it's not going to be in their portfolio.
BTW, the Wellsprings Capital Management mint car
OK, so Lionel is making tens of millions each year. My mistake.
@breezinup posted:It was specifically mentioned by Ken Sr. that so far (dealers are still getting them in) they have sold a million dollars worth of Big Boys (!)(and that's just one dealership), and orders for the Triplex are going through the roof.
I heard this and immediately though that if this one shop has sold a million dollars worth of this product, then many millions of dollars of products must be sold nationally. I admit my budget will be tiny for the next few years due to family plans but I'll likely still buy some rolling stock here and there. My gameplan is to host operating sessions with friends and family and encourage them to purchase their own locomotives/rolling stock to keep on my layout (and eventually their own).
We'll probably be ok.
@Yellowstone Special posted:OK, so Lionel is making tens of millions each year. My mistake.
Based on past information released, and some current sources, their annual revenue appears to be in the neighborhood of $93 million.
Revenue is one thing.
Profits are quite another.
More evidence of robust sales on the Big Boy. In addition to Trainworld's information, Mr. Muffin's latest email about a half hour ago said "Lionel Visionline Big Boys are here and we have shipped tons!"
Glad the dealers are doing well.
@Former Member posted:Revenue is one thing.
Profits are quite another.
I'll bet Wellsprings Capital Management Group knows this.
Wow! That is amazing that Lionel can sell so many of those locomotives at that price point! I consider that a sign that the O gauge hobby is doing well. Not super great like it did in the late 90's and early 2000s but it is doing good. How could it be bad when I keep getting emails from Mr.Muffin about how much product is coming in? I just got this email from him. Look at all the pallets! He is in trouble with the town officials! 
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This thread is chasing its tail, what if…..maybe…..possible. In the end who cares, it is what it is…..enjoy now let someone else worry about 5 years from now…LMAO
Lionel LLC is currently owned by Guggenheim Partners who also own the LA Dodgers. Wellspring owns a small fraction of the company.
I'm kinda surprised by the strong prices prewar and postwar seem to be fetching at auctions (Stout seems to have quite a few). I would think with the demographic that was most interested in those type of things fading away that interest in those items would drop.
If the hobby is dying there were a lot of walking dead and or mourners at Allentown First Frost this past weekend.
