Is the Hobby Dying?

Unfortunately, annual gross revenue is a meaningless number.

Net profit after tax, EBITDA, and the debt-to-equity ratio are among the numbers that you need to know.

And, for investment groups, it is not just good enough to have a profit.  The company has to have a profit and return on equity that are higher than that of alternative companies and investments that they can buy.  If the investment fails to achieve this for 5 years or so, then they will dump it and look for a better investment.  That is how investment bankers and their investor clients make their money and feed their kids.

Having said all of that, I certainly hope that Lionel is doing well.

Mannyrock

@Frank Mulligan posted:

I'm kinda surprised by the strong prices prewar and postwar seem to be fetching at auctions (Stout seems to have quite a few).  I would think with the demographic that was most interested in those type of things fading away that interest in those items would drop.

Problem with a postwar in general is there is so much garbage - and when items that are mint go at auction for top dollar people selling garbage condition items think they can get top dollar.  They don’t, and they sit - sometimes for years - then sellers say the hobby is dying because I can’t sell junk for top dollar and buyers see the same junk not moving show after show, year after year.  

The hobby isn't dying.  Hobbyists have been predicting the death of the hobby since Lionel stopped cataloging Standard Gauge in 1940.

The hobby is morphing and splitting into groups:

1. Postwar style layouts.  Lots of accessories, 031/036/042 curves, tubular track, (usually) conventional control.
2. Hi-Rail layouts; scale but with a center 3rd rail.  No gateman or out of scale accessories.
3. LionChief/FastTrack/Themed Trains.  Command only; no conventional.
4. Cool stuff.  Running 21" passenger cars, a string of 25 different ore cars, and a rake of 15 different 816/2816 hoppers on the same layout.

Are you having fun with your trains;  then who cares?

There is enough product out there with the mainstream manufacturers that parts will be available for years if Atlas, Lionel, and MTH went out of business tomorrow.

Enjoy what you have while you can as we are likely to die before the hobby does.

Grief counselors are standing by.

@Former Member posted:

Enjoy what you have while you can as we are likely to die before the hobby does.

Adding to Chuck's comments:

If you feel the hobby is dying then you should immediately go to your trainroom, basement, garage, or wherever you run trains and start running them right now.  In fact, you should go the extra mile and join a train club or two, attend as many train shows as you can, and interact with everyone you see to encourage them about the joys of the hobby and enjoyment it brings you! Spread your experience and keep the interest going!!

Complaining about it here won't help anyone or the hobby...

@H1000 posted:

Adding to Chuck's comments:

If you feel the hobby is dying then you should immediately go to your trainroom, basement, garage, or wherever you run trains and start running them right now.  In fact, you should go the extra mile and join a train club or two, attend as many train shows as you can, and interact with everyone you see to encourage them about the joys of the hobby and enjoyment it brings you! Spread your experience and keep the interest going!!

Complaining about it here won't help anyone or the hobby...

A wonderfully positive suggestion for the doom and gloomers.

Bravo!

OMG, this subject has been coming up since I joined the forum back in 2005.

I see lots of young people enjoying the hobby. No worries. Going to be around for a long time.

@ChrisFromCle posted:

Problem with a postwar in general is there is so much garbage - and when items that are mint go at auction for top dollar people selling garbage condition items think they can get top dollar.  They don’t, and they sit - sometimes for years - then sellers say the hobby is dying because I can’t sell junk for top dollar and buyers see the same junk not moving show after show, year after year.  

I have to agree with what you are saying. I see it show after show. The group that is in the postwar group is mostly responsible for the Hobby is dying comments. I am in that age of postwar people and am into the Modern stuff with all the bells and whistles. I think the new stuff is great. This is where the hobby is now. Although it might not be as populated as it was in the past it is still very popular and being enjoyed by a group of young people who will move it forward. I see it everyday with the YouTube channels and social media. So in some areas of the hobby yes the hobby is cooling off and heading in another direction. The hobby is very much alive and doing well.

Like almost every aspect of modern life, model trains are experiencing a tremendous infusion of technology. Ask yourself this: why would highly regarded companies like Lionel be investing in Base3 and Soundtraxx be investing in Blunami?  A key aspect of successful business is to accurately predict the future and respond accordingly. One of the obvious results of good business acumen is the large number of currently available ways to control locomotives. The shift to app control was a recognition that newer younger modelers probably have phones and tablets used for an increasing number of tasks. It's these newer hobbyists who will keep the industry alive, so you must provide what they want.

Although the O-gauge hobby isn’t dying yet, it may migrate to Battery Powered Dead Rail

CB&Q Bill

A similar hobby is model aircraft flying. I have friends who do this. They have settled on a single concept, battery powered wireless controlled planes.  I obtain my batteries from a local model aircraft shop that does great. With some luck, we will get there.

@BOB WALKER posted:

A similar hobby is model aircraft flying. I have friends who do this. They have settled on a single concept, battery powered wireless controlled planes.  I obtain my batteries from a local model aircraft shop that does great. With some luck, we will get there.

Haha... My other hobby.  RC Planes.  I can't tell you how many time my son and I would arrive at the flying field to find three fellas surrounding a glow engine fiddling with needle valves.

My son and I would get our flights in with our electrics and those three guys would still be scratching their heads wondering why their glow engine would not run.

Plus... no glow oil to wipe off your plane at the end of the day.

Ron

Ron

Those RC flyers need to take up U control flying combat to learn how to start and adjust the motors in way less than 3 minutes or the other air borne plane will be out of gas.

Charlie

@ChrisFromCle posted:

Problem with a postwar in general is there is so much garbage - and when items that are mint go at auction for top dollar people selling garbage condition items think they can get top dollar.  They don’t, and they sit - sometimes for years - then sellers say the hobby is dying because I can’t sell junk for top dollar and buyers see the same junk not moving show after show, year after year.  

So true!!!

I would like to put my 2 cents in. I am 50 so middle aged train guy. My first observation is this, I was at Allentown for the first time Saturday, it was packed! The aisles were crowded and people were buying, including me. So I look at that as a positive sign. I run all eras but Legacy is my favorite, I am a Reading and Northern fan and thee stuff is hard to find as it is. I think Lionel doing the BTO system has helped them, they probably make what is ordered plus 10%. That was there is little inventory left over. The newest Big Boy has been a huge seller..The F9's were also big sellers so they seem to know what they are doing. If the hobby has slowed down its in average postwar and Standard gauge, I know a lot of train guys and no one is into Standard. All my train friends are Legacy guys..

Trains, RC planes, Model A Fords, old MG sports cars....we hear it from time to time, no one will continue with the hobby.  I believe the hobbies will be fine, just pass on some of the enthusiasm (and a few starter sets of trains).  The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago, then next best time is right now.

Good comments folks.

Just because it's there, I asked ChatGPT - "is the model railroad hobby dying"

This is the response:

As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, the model railroad hobby was still active and enjoyed by a dedicated community of enthusiasts worldwide. However, it's essential to note that the popularity and vibrancy of any hobby can vary over time and may be influenced by factors such as demographic changes, technological advancements, and shifting interests.

Here are a few points to consider:

1. **Dedicated Community:** The model railroad hobby has a strong and dedicated community of enthusiasts who participate in clubs, events, and online forums. This sense of community often helps sustain and promote the hobby.

2. **Demographic Changes:** Like many hobbies, the model railroad community may experience demographic shifts. Younger generations may have different interests and may engage with the hobby in different ways, such as incorporating new technologies into their layouts.

3. **Technological Advancements:** The hobby has embraced technological advancements, such as Digital Command Control (DCC), realistic sound systems, and more detailed and accurate models. These innovations can attract new enthusiasts and keep existing ones engaged.

4. **Local Variances:** The health of the model railroad hobby can vary by region. Some areas may see a decline in interest, while others experience growth or remain stable.

It's a good idea to check more recent sources or online communities for updates on the current state of the model railroad hobby. Trends and interests can change, and new developments may have occurred since my last update in January 2022.