I've been writing this post in my head for 3 days straight now. I need to keep it short and concise, or the only one who will read it will be me.
The elephant in the room: our hobby (regardless of scale) is slowly dying as its membership ages out. O Scale/Gauge is dying the fastest, and this announcement poses the risk of becoming accelerant on the fire.
How many of us are under 50? 40? 30? 20? Put another way, what are the odds that the number of O hobbyists over the age of 50 is greater than the number under 50? I'd say the odds are pretty good, and that's not good. In the interest of full disclosure, I'm 41.
I've heard the argument that it's a problem for the manufacturers to solve, and while I don't completely agree, MTH dropping out is a huge gut punch to any hope of O Scale/Gauge reversing its declining popularity. It's no secret that O is incredibly expensive when compared with other scales, and it is one of the reasons it struggles to attract folks under 40 who are raising families and building careers. While Lionel has done a good job of marketing itself to younger generations (Disney, Scooby, etc), I fear that most of those sales are grandfather purchases for grandchildren--I could be wrong, though. MTH, however, brought some unique key elements to the hobby that made it palatable to the 20 and 30-something crowd, and not just parents and grandparents. RailKing's price point is the obvious example here.
MTH's out-of-the-box thinking on the European models, 2-rail and DCC support, and Tinplate are also great examples of a commitment to product line diversity that our hobby has enjoyed that may be a thing of the past. MTH's announcement that DCS will live on as a separate company comes as a huge relief. If DCS becomes licensable, that's a huge boon as well; imagine a world where you can order an engine from someone like Atlas or Williams with either TMCC or DCS, or pay a little extra for an engine that supports BOTH (as component sizes shrink).
While I can ponder the possibilities of what will happen to the rest of MTH, none of what I've been able to brainstorm helps stem the bleeding of our hobby's membership, and that's what's haunting me.
The only thing that I can think of is for MTH to be reborn with a new generation of leadership tuned to attracting hobbyists aged 20-40. It's going to require, in large part, a re-thinking of what it means to make and sell O gauge to a millennial. Just having an iPhone app and/or bluetooth support isn't sufficient. Alexa/HomeKit/Google Home integration is a no-brainer nice-to-have. Augmented Reality likely needs to be involved here. Building an actual network of YouTube influencers is vital. Presence at CES is key to injecting product awareness into the "everyday consumer" space with major retail buyers. TCA will need to be guided on how to completely reinvent itself; I'm 41 and even I feel like an alien from another planet when it comes to interactions with TCA.
Could Lionel/Atlas/Williams do this on their own? Maybe, but it's not likely. Lionel needs a competitor like MTH in order to drive this innovation through competition. Apple wouldn't be what it is if Microsoft and Google hadn't been fighting it tooth and nail. Ford and Chevy made each other's success. Lionel needs an MTH competing head to head. focused on millennials if our hobby is going to survive the next 10-15 years.
Can MTH be reborn with employees carrying the torch? Maybe. I think that's the hope, because it's apparent that a whole-sale buyout is a fleeting possibility at this point. And even if the employees can pick up the torch, will they have a leader who seeds a vision for the markets that our hobby hasn't attracted in 30 years? Who knows.
Short of that, however, I suspect that this announcement could go down as one of the major watershed moments in the final decline of O Gauge. I really, really hope that I'm wrong, and I hesitated to write this post because I don't like being a Debbie Downer. But we need to force this conversation, and we need as many members under the age of 50 and 40 contributing to the conversation as much as possible.