Mike Wolf to retire and close MTH

@PRRronbh posted:

But still have the same thought.  Lionel won!  What do I mean, the Name, Logo, and their toy train legacy (pun intended) will continue.  Where as MTH will most probably soon be scattered to the wind.  And I say this with great disappointment and as a BIG MTH fan. 

Cowen is gone, Kughn gone, Calabrese gone, Reagan gone, and Lionel even survived Maddox.  But Mike Wolf is retiring and to quote Wolf "and close the business."  .... some places I have work the top leaves but the company goes on. 

A critical deficiency in the MTH business model is precisely what killed it - one man at the top and no plan for continance, and nowhere for the company to go if he leaves. It has been striking to some that a 61-year-old owner who kept himself as sole owner, without an overall plan of succession, would "shut it down" in such a seemingly sudden manner. Plans for a partial succession continue to be unfolding, but so far it appears continued production of trains isn't part of it.

Death of the company is always a danger whenever there are no other ownership interests.  There are methods by which company owners - through stock plans to gradually give ownership interests to others with buyout provisions, for example - may provide that a company will stay in business. The Lionel model, completely different with outside ownership by Guggenheim Partners, assures continuity, at least to a reasonable degree, as shown by the retirement/exit of company presidents over time and succession by others taking their place. If Guggenheim decides to sell Lionel at some point in the future, well, who knows, but at this point they've owned it for a number of years and there's been no indication of any change anytime soon.

How much of MTH's abbreviated plan for continuance is being crafted ad hoc as they go along, we don't know, but hopefully things will work out to provide necessary continued support to hobbyists.

I'm sure somewhere in the 15 pages of this thread but I have a some thoughts that some may find worthwhile. 

1. It has rumored in the industry for several years that Mr. Wolf was seeking a buyer for the MTH product line.  One might simply consider that there wasn't a buyer interested in the full line of products and the name.  The company could have been offered to employees.  However understanding what a challenging business model O scale trains is, I can see a scenario where the employees may have seen a limited opportunity in taking over the entire company. 
2. Where is the value of a toy train manufacturer?  We want new tooling, we want new models, we want a lot period.  The currently tooling is showing it's age and a large investment would be required.  I would argue that for MTH it surely is in the technology.  It sounds like the current employees may decide to take that on and in doing so possibly expand into a lot of new arenas to support not only this hobby but others.
3. Some may have forgotten that Joe Hayter faced a similar issue at Weaver.  No one bought the company outright, but parts of the company live on in Lionel's Lionscale line as well at Atlas.  The products that have done well for MTH will likely offered by someone else down the road.  I have no inside knowledge of that, but it certainly likely.
4. Most importantly.  Mr. Wolf is entitled to a retirement.  He got to live his dream for many years in this industry with a lot of hard work and dedication.  I'm sure he'll be much happier when he doesn't have to see all the complaints on this forum.

None of this is meant as criticism at all towards MTH.  My experiences with the employees has always been pleasant and I wish everyone well as the future unfolds. 

@Landsteiner posted:

"Actually I remember thinking it was amazing lionel got away with bankruptcy and the lct agreement (I don't remember the rest of the details) and Mike didn't end up putting them truly out of business.   I avoided lionel products for years because of what they did.   "

With all due respect, there's another point of view, which is that these liability claims by MTH against Lionel were "alleged," never proven to a lot of people's satisfaction. As many folks like yourself who are convinced MTH got a raw deal are folks who felt the lawsuit was an attempt to win in the courts what could not be achieved in the marketplace.  So they did not buy MTH products for many years. 

Not worth litigating this again in the court of public opinion since it was settled in the courts and Lionel was not found liable in the negotiated settlement.  No one's opinion is likely to change 15-20 years after the events.  Best not to drag this up at this point, since it is divisive and settled.  Lionel and MTH went on to work together on the tinplate license, so best that hobbyists find some way to lay this to rest.

This is well-stated. Certainly at the time there was plenty of irritation with MTH as well, and feelings voiced that much of it was ego-driven and an attempt at market-grabbing. In any case, there appeared to be some straying from the "path of righteousness" by both sides, but that's long gone and the resolution was appreciated by all concerned. 

A number of years ago, even before the lawsuit, there were a fair number of vocal MTH advocates on this Forum who confidently predicted the end of Lionel and the coming dominance of MTH and its takeover of the o gauge market. Some predicted MW would buy Lionel. There were many who scoffed at this, quite correctly, looking back. There may have been a way that such a purchase could have happened, though. It may be fortunate that this merger never happened.

Such a combined company would probably have been more attractive to buyers, though. As it turned out, MTH alone was not "too big to fail," but too big not to fail. It had grown to the point that prospective purchasers deemed it economically unsustainable in the current market, and not worth the price they would have to pay. All this is just speculation, of course. 

I'm not intending to flame the debate over control systems, but what hasn't been mentioned; the patent on DCS will expire in 4 years.

@MikeH posted:

Too technologically advanced.  You're just asking for problems.  I'm sticking with wooden push trains. 

Re the last comment....

I still have the Skaneateles wooden train set Santa gave to me in the mid 40's.  (Quite a story around that, too!)

So, when everyone serving this corner of the hobby has dropped their fire, hung it up, called it quits.....pick a cliche..., and my MTHLCTATLLNLWBB3RDRL collection resides only on the shelves of the dusty man-cave for  gizmos and gadgetry gone awry and no longer available for resurrection, I may join you!  

OTOH, who am I kidding???   I have no intention or genetic substance for being around THAT long!

----------------------

So Mike Wolf is retiring at around 60 years young??   Good for him!  My corporate employer peeled the onion in 1997 when I was 53.  I kiddingly suggested they make an offer I couldn't refuse.  They did.  I didn't.  One year later I began a second, albeit casual, 'career'. 

Retiring at 54 after 31.5 years?.....HIGHLY recommended!  

Mike Wolf!.....You never have ceased to amaze me with your acumen!

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market.  Having said that, I think the canary is singing in the coal mine and this is the beginning of the end. I also think we should take Mike Wolf at his word that his company is closing for good.  if there was a white knight who was going to buy the company and keep it going it would have been announced by now. It isn't happening.  There is not a business case for a multimillionaire businessman to jump into the O gauge market. The situation in China, COVID and a rapidly aging and dying off customer base means no business case. MTH may own the tooling in China but good luck to a "new"  owner of MTH getting actual control of it.   I think DCS users are fortunate that support will continue... for a time but don't count on for more than a year or two. 

This will have ripple effects and will become a reinforcing factor to the continuing shrinking of the market.  I would keep an eye on those dealers that were on the margin of profitability.  We are going to see brick and mortar Hobby Shop owners already suffering  the COVID slow down and competitions from ebay throwing in the towel. This will also negatively impact train shows and it will be instructive to see what effect this has on York and the Orange Hall. Less hobby shops and smaller train shows will reduce the public's exposure to O gauge trains, thereby contributing to the market shrinking further. 

In the short term no one has to worry about finding trains to buy though. The secondary market is facing a glut of trains which of course keeps prices going ever so certainly down. If you look on ebay, good solid operator quality Postwar trains is starting to be sold in lots, almost by the pound.  It has become economically unfeasible to pay for someone to fix your postwar trains. Got a Lionel 646 Hudson that doesn't run that needs a new e-unit and some general work?  Go on ebay and buy a 646 that works for the same price that it would have cost to have an "old train guy" fix it for you.  In the not to distant future much of it will end up in a dump. Not because it doesn't work but because our heirs don't want it or want to be bothered.  Meanwhile any "new" train, Lionel or MTH can be purchased for far less than MSRP. Don't see it on ebay? Don't worry it will show up and will be available for a very attractive price.

Young people are not getting into the hobby at anywhere near the rate that is needed to sustain the hobby, much less grow it. And yes, I know that we all have a young person in our life that we have given trains to but even if that interest in trains sticks, none of them are going to have the funds for $1000 plus locomotives. They won't have the space to run them in their condos or apartments either. 

In a way the hobby has been a victim of it's own success. When I was growing up back in the 1970s "Lionel trains" was still seen by parents and kids as must have a must have toy to have while growing up.  If you didn't have your uncles trains, your parents picked up some postwar from a garage sale or a hobby shop. Your dad would set it up on a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood and off you went. The prominence of highly detailed and expensive trains that require huge real estate to run has changed that perception. "Lionel trains" (that's what the public still thinks of as O gauge) are no longer seen as a toy to be played with. These are museum quality models for serious adults, kids and their 8 by 4 plywood layout need not apply.  Sure kids like to watch them, but not of them are going to buy them and parents don't see them as toys anymore.

My guess is that Lionel is not celebrating the end of MTH either for all of the reasons above. The one that is going to hurt them the most is the continued shrinkage of the number of hobby shops.  The same business case dose of reality that hit MTH will come for Lionel too. When the current owners get tired of owning a high end scale model company I expect them to liquidate the company. There isn't a Richard Kughn out there to buy the company and sustain it. 

So, enjoy the hobby while it lasts a few more years but make your decisions on the reality that we are at the beginning of the end. 

@breezinup posted:

This is well-stated. Certainly at the time there was plenty of irritation with MTH as well, and feelings voiced that much of it was ego-driven and an attempt at market-grabbing. In any case, there appeared to be some straying from the "path of righteousness" by both sides, but that's long gone and the resolution was appreciated by all concerned. 

A number of years ago, even before the lawsuit, there were a fair number of vocal MTH advocates on this Forum who confidently predicted the end of Lionel and the coming dominance of MTH and its takeover of the o gauge market. Some predicted MW would buy Lionel. There were many who scoffed at this, quite correctly, looking back. There may have been a way that such a purchase could have happened, though. It may be fortunate that this merger never happened.

Such a combined company would probably have been more attractive to buyers, though. As it turned out, MTH alone was not "too big to fail," but too big not to fail. It had grown to the point that prospective purchasers deemed it economically unsustainable in the current market, and not worth the price they would have to pay. All this is just speculation, of course. 

The whole MTH/Lionel thing could have gone a number of ways.  Some people happened to be more right in their predictions than wrong, others more wrong.  Most weren't completely right or wrong.

Just like in the stock market, you can be wrong more than right and still make money.  This doesn't make anyone a good predictor of the future.  I would venture to say that if we as people to survive had to be right more than wrong, we wouldn't last very long.  We just tend as a whole to be resilient and stubborn, never as smart or savvy as we like to think.

On another note, this gloom and doom and wild predictions about everything is rather humorous.

MADOCKAWANDO, You have it right. To add to that, Soon the TCA York meet will go back to a almost all collector meet.

Over the years I have seen Mike Wolf at York and at his Maryland business and I have to say I have never seen a man with such devotion, passion, drive and enthusiasm toward his product and the respect he has toward his employees.  Mike has done so much good for the hobby as we all know and I find it hard to believe he would go into full retirement at this time.  I would not be surprised to hear that in the near future he would still have his pot in the fire.  He has certainly earned his retirement and I wish him the best.

@Madockawando posted:

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market.  Having said that, I think the canary is singing in the coal mine and this is the beginning of the end. I also think we should take Mike Wolf at his word that his company is closing for good.  if there was a white knight who was going to buy the company and keep it going it would have been announced by now. It isn't happening.  There is not a business case for a multimillionaire businessman to jump into the O gauge market. The situation in China, COVID and a rapidly aging and dying off customer base means no business case. MTH may own the tooling in China but good luck to a "new"  owner of MTH getting actual control of it.   I think DCS users are fortunate that support will continue... for a time but don't count on for more than a year or two. 

This will have ripple effects and will become a reinforcing factor to the continuing shrinking of the market.  I would keep an eye on those dealers that were on the margin of profitability.  We are going to see brick and mortar Hobby Shop owners already suffering  the COVID slow down and competitions from ebay throwing in the towel. This will also negatively impact train shows and it will be instructive to see what effect this has on York and the Orange Hall. Less hobby shops and smaller train shows will reduce the public's exposure to O gauge trains, thereby contributing to the market shrinking further. 

In the short term no one has to worry about finding trains to buy though. The secondary market is facing a glut of trains which of course keeps prices going ever so certainly down. If you look on ebay, good solid operator quality Postwar trains is starting to be sold in lots, almost by the pound.  It has become economically unfeasible to pay for someone to fix your postwar trains. Got a Lionel 646 Hudson that doesn't run that needs a new e-unit and some general work?  Go on ebay and buy a 646 that works for the same price that it would have cost to have an "old train guy" fix it for you.  In the not to distant future much of it will end up in a dump. Not because it doesn't work but because our heirs don't want it or want to be bothered.  Meanwhile any "new" train, Lionel or MTH can be purchased for far less than MSRP. Don't see it on ebay? Don't worry it will show up and will be available for a very attractive price.

Young people are not getting into the hobby at anywhere near the rate that is needed to sustain the hobby, much less grow it. And yes, I know that we all have a young person in our life that we have given trains to but even if that interest in trains sticks, none of them are going to have the funds for $1000 plus locomotives. They won't have the space to run them in their condos or apartments either. 

In a way the hobby has been a victim of it's own success. When I was growing up back in the 1970s "Lionel trains" was still seen by parents and kids as must have a must have toy to have while growing up.  If you didn't have your uncles trains, your parents picked up some postwar from a garage sale or a hobby shop. Your dad would set it up on a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood and off you went. The prominence of highly detailed and expensive trains that require huge real estate to run has changed that perception. "Lionel trains" (that's what the public still thinks of as O gauge) are no longer seen as a toy to be played with. These are museum quality models for serious adults, kids and their 8 by 4 plywood layout need not apply.  Sure kids like to watch them, but not of them are going to buy them and parents don't see them as toys anymore.

My guess is that Lionel is not celebrating the end of MTH either for all of the reasons above. The one that is going to hurt them the most is the continued shrinkage of the number of hobby shops.  The same business case dose of reality that hit MTH will come for Lionel too. When the current owners get tired of owning a high end scale model company I expect them to liquidate the company. There isn't a Richard Kughn out there to buy the company and sustain it. 

So, enjoy the hobby while it lasts a few more years but make your decisions on the reality that we are at the beginning of the end. 

A very thoughtful and well-reasoned analysis. While I don’t agree completely with you, you present a very plausible case for the ultimate demise of the hobby including Lionel itself. 

“Lionel” in the classic sense hasn’t existed since 1969. It is a popular tradename selling on its place in American culture. Since production moved to China in 2000 (and remember the early 80s Mexico move debacle?), it ceased to be an American manufacturing icon and became a marketing/distribution entity. The real and original “Lionel” died fifty years ago this year and, now that I think of it, I haven’t seen any special edition engines being offered to commemorate its passing. Odd.

So long as a sufficient number of consumers continue to have nostalgic feelings for the Lionel brand (mystique, even) it will chug along. Pun intended. 

Plus, MTH, for all its strengths and innovations, never ever had a mystique built around it like Lionel has. No other model railroad manufacturing company could or can. While we can mourn its passing, MTH is not a part of American culture and never could be. 

Wow! A lot of interesting topics. 

Mike,

Have a great retirement.  For me, I love, and probably have, a majority of Pittsburgh cars you have produced over the years.  From KDKA, Heinz, Pittsburgh Brewing, Isaly's, Pirates, Steelers (even though you are a Ravens Fan), Eat N Park (were most of my family worked in our early years), plus all the steel companies, and local railroads. I enjoy them all.  Now that you are retiring, well deserved, who will be out there with the vision you had offering the local named freight from many areas in the US?  You had a open ear for all us crazy train lovers and time and time again you came through for us.  You produced quality trains for the vast majority of our hobby and kept them at affordable prices.  Oh, I never had issues with DCS from the first system I bought, even though I still like the hand held controller.  You were willing to take risk in your offerings to please us many times.  Some, I am sure you regretted.  My wish, and a majority of the forum members, is that your legacy and MTH can live on.  Thank you for giving your employees the opportunity to continue with DCS along with the hope they will still produce PS3 boards.   Your love for tinplate re-energized this segment of our hobby.  I can continue on and on but I am sure, all your love for the hobby will not end with your retirement.

@Carl Peduzzi posted:

Forgive me, but I must ask as I can’t tell, is this sarcasm?

So many opinions have been expressed (positive and negative) in this thread, and I have just lost track.

Yes

@PRRronbh posted:

...................

edit:  What surprises and shocks me the most is that Mike Wolf would allow his creation that he worked so hard at to wither and most probably die.  Now maybe there was a cost benefit analysis that showed limited future prospects for the O-Gauge hobby!  

While this is obviously on a much larger scale, this seems almost like a parallel thought on a train collector not "letting go" of  a collection they had built over a lifetime until they could find a single buyer that would keep it intact (a VERY tall order).  How many people have waited too long for that perfect scenario, only to never realize it, only getting older (or worse) while waiting?  Sometimes the "decent" scenario is better than waiting for a "perfect" scenario that will likely never play out.

Earlier posts mentioned the sale of the building.  Depending on details that are not any of our business , the building may have in fact worked out to be the most decent option for a retirement plan.  Breaking up smaller parts of the product or service aspects of the business that may be worthwhile as smaller investments for some of the employees may be the best scenario practical. 

-Dave

@breezinup posted:

A critical deficiency in the MTH business model is precisely what killed it - one man at the top and no plan for continance, and nowhere for the company to go if he leaves. It has been striking to some that a 61-year-old owner who kept himself as sole owner, without an overall plan of succession, would "shut it down" in such a seemingly sudden manner. Plans for a partial succession continue to be unfolding, but so far it appears continued production of trains isn't part of it.

Death of the company is always a danger whenever there are no other ownership interests.  There are methods by which company owners - through stock plans to gradually give ownership interests to others with buyout provisions, for example - may provide that a company will stay in business. The Lionel model, completely different with outside ownership by Guggenheim Partners, assures continuity, at least to a reasonable degree, as shown by the retirement/exit of company presidents over time and succession by others taking their place. If Guggenheim decides to sell Lionel at some point in the future, well, who knows, but at this point they've owned it for a number of years and there's been no indication of any change anytime soon.

How much of MTH's abbreviated plan for continuance is being crafted ad hoc as they go along, we don't know, but hopefully things will work out to provide necessary continued support to hobbyists.

I don't think a lack of planning is necessarily to blame, as you suggest.  One gigantic advantage Lionel has is that it is synonymous with toy trains and the holidays.  That name is what likely attracted private investors as it is perceived as the most premium and well know brand in the entire train hobby. As much as MTH may have been respected by seasoned hobbyists it was not known outside the hobby.  To take one small example, it probably gives Lionel an advantage to get things like the Polar Express franchise.  And it allows Lionel to charge $1,000 for a Lionmaster big boy when MTH charges $600-$700 for basically the same locomotive.  That additional margin on the product is due to the name and the value of the franchise.   Premium market position always has value to outside investors and this is why Lionel has changed hands multiple times over the years.  Cowen was no better on planning than Mike, it is just that he developed a franchise synonymous with Christmas.  Magic in a box.  That mystique continues and it is why that so long as there is any remnant of profit in O gauge, Lionel will be best positioned to take it because of the name and history of the firm.

IMHO, The unwinding started at the beginning of the lawsuits. Regardless, of MTH's right to sue over patents being violated.  I believe it alienated a lot of train enthusiast. Also, regardless or not if DCS had more features then TMCC at the time. Or, even at the release of legacy. There always seemed to be operational issues.

Frankly, that is the one factor that steered me away! But, items like Mel's Diner, McDonalds and others. Certainly, some products that will always bring back a fond memory of MTH. Some, items that may never have be been produced by other manufacturers.

I wish him a long and happy life and retirement. Hopefully, he still gets the bug.....and we will see him at York once in a while...

@Dave Warburton posted:

Plus, MTH, for all its strengths and innovations, never ever had a mystique built around it like Lionel has. No other model railroad manufacturing company could or can. While we can mourn its passing, MTH is not a part of American culture and never could be. 

Agreed. All the others [Weaver, Sunset models/Golden Gate Depot, Right of Way industries, K-line, Atlas O ] Have a VERY HARD time [New product or a rerun] in Sales of items. In O gauge everyone looks at Lionel.  Even the train industry as a whole, ask any non model train enthusiast about model trains, 8 out of 10 the response in Lionel trains.

@Madockawando posted:

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market.  Having said that, I think the canary is singing in the coal mine and this is the beginning of the end. I also think we should take Mike Wolf at his word that his company is closing for good.  if there was a white knight who was going to buy the company and keep it going it would have been announced by now. It isn't happening.  There is not a business case for a multimillionaire businessman to jump into the O gauge market. The situation in China, COVID and a rapidly aging and dying off customer base means no business case. MTH may own the tooling in China but good luck to a "new"  owner of MTH getting actual control of it.   I think DCS users are fortunate that support will continue... for a time but don't count on for more than a year or two. 

This will have ripple effects and will become a reinforcing factor to the continuing shrinking of the market.  I would keep an eye on those dealers that were on the margin of profitability.  We are going to see brick and mortar Hobby Shop owners already suffering  the COVID slow down and competitions from ebay throwing in the towel. This will also negatively impact train shows and it will be instructive to see what effect this has on York and the Orange Hall. Less hobby shops and smaller train shows will reduce the public's exposure to O gauge trains, thereby contributing to the market shrinking further. 

In the short term no one has to worry about finding trains to buy though. The secondary market is facing a glut of trains which of course keeps prices going ever so certainly down. If you look on ebay, good solid operator quality Postwar trains is starting to be sold in lots, almost by the pound.  It has become economically unfeasible to pay for someone to fix your postwar trains. Got a Lionel 646 Hudson that doesn't run that needs a new e-unit and some general work?  Go on ebay and buy a 646 that works for the same price that it would have cost to have an "old train guy" fix it for you.  In the not to distant future much of it will end up in a dump. Not because it doesn't work but because our heirs don't want it or want to be bothered.  Meanwhile any "new" train, Lionel or MTH can be purchased for far less than MSRP. Don't see it on ebay? Don't worry it will show up and will be available for a very attractive price.

Young people are not getting into the hobby at anywhere near the rate that is needed to sustain the hobby, much less grow it. And yes, I know that we all have a young person in our life that we have given trains to but even if that interest in trains sticks, none of them are going to have the funds for $1000 plus locomotives. They won't have the space to run them in their condos or apartments either. 

In a way the hobby has been a victim of it's own success. When I was growing up back in the 1970s "Lionel trains" was still seen by parents and kids as must have a must have toy to have while growing up.  If you didn't have your uncles trains, your parents picked up some postwar from a garage sale or a hobby shop. Your dad would set it up on a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood and off you went. The prominence of highly detailed and expensive trains that require huge real estate to run has changed that perception. "Lionel trains" (that's what the public still thinks of as O gauge) are no longer seen as a toy to be played with. These are museum quality models for serious adults, kids and their 8 by 4 plywood layout need not apply.  Sure kids like to watch them, but not of them are going to buy them and parents don't see them as toys anymore.

My guess is that Lionel is not celebrating the end of MTH either for all of the reasons above. The one that is going to hurt them the most is the continued shrinkage of the number of hobby shops.  The same business case dose of reality that hit MTH will come for Lionel too. When the current owners get tired of owning a high end scale model company I expect them to liquidate the company. There isn't a Richard Kughn out there to buy the company and sustain it. 

So, enjoy the hobby while it lasts a few more years but make your decisions on the reality that we are at the beginning of the end. 

I think you and I are pretty much on the same page here. I've continued to think about this topic, as it directly impacts those of us who would could theoretically still be in this gauge 20-30 years from now if the trajectory of popularity was different.

Like you, if things run their current course without something positive and unforeseen happening (and I'm rooting for that possibility) I think the closure of MTH will have a distinct ripple effect. I expect to see Atlas and Williams bump up production slightly, or even more if they buy some tooling, but 10 years from now I expect they will both be out of O scale. In 10 years, I expect that Lionel will significantly curtail its scale runs, and eventually cut them off entirely except for one or two "special edition" product releases once a year. The scale market will be left to places like Sunset/3rd Rail with very limited runs and prices will be two to three times what an MTH premier engine would have cost. 

I anticipate that the Lionel Vision line will retire entirely, and Legacy and LionChief will merge into a common product that is more limited and simpler to use than Legacy, but more full featured than LionChief, and will be ONLY tablet/smartphone controlled if you want anything more than basic LionChief remote functionality. DCS will live on for a few years, but once Atlas and Williams drop out, you'll only find it on those limited runs of Sunset/3rd Rail, if it's even available at all at that point. 

While the future of O Scale looks bleak and life-support-esque, I don't think it's the end of O Gauge. I think we'll still see ready-to-run sets and entry level rolling stock for the foreseeable future, but it'll all be Lionel, and it'll be on the LionChief/Legacy hybrid platform, and it will be a market entirely supported by birthdays and Christmas and buttressed by Polar/Disney/Scooby/Thomas/etc licenses just like we see today.

The one place I think we differ in opinion is on the likelihood that this current trajectory will continue. I am very Pollyanna in my outlook in life, admittedly, but I believe that the tide can be turned for O Scale if companies like Lionel, Atlas, and Williams were to make some drastic changes in their vision of the future to cater directly to millennials rather than to rely on baby boomer income, that O scale would survive, just as a different animal. 

Every engine manufacturer will need to adopt DCC and 2-rail as the primary market. It would be a hard switch, but it's a hill that must be overcome for the vast majority of prospective customers who are not baby boomers. And I say this as a died-in-the-wool 3-railer. I don't even own a single 2-rail piece of equipment, but I know that if this hobby survives, I'm going to be converting as much equipment as possible to 2-rail in about 10-15 years.

They'd need to embrace smartphone and tablet technologies completely differently than what they're currently doing (the current control-only apps are not a compelling selling feature to a millennial). The idea of a hardware remote that's anything more than a LionChief remote needs to go away very quickly--anything more than LionChief needs to live in an app.  AR needs to play a big role in layout construction, product shopping, and in train operation.

The idea of a catalog needs to go away entirely. The products need to be sold almost exclusively online, and through as many generalized online resellers as possible (Amazon, Target, Walmart, etc). This means redirecting investment away from dealers and creating new relationships and markets with buyers.

Most repairs will need to be handled by mail-in.

The dedicated brick and mortar dealer footprint will evaporate no matter what, so dealer licenses will need to no longer have the brick and mortar requirement. 

TCA needs to either die off with the baby boomers or completely reinvent itself. Look to the video game hobby as a model--it's thriving, both in retro and modern gaming. Speaking as a hobbyist in both groups, the parallels from the video game hobbyist community to model train communities from the 70's and 80's is shocking. 

Others have rightly pointed out that kids/teens today have a much wider buffet of entertainment/hobby/extracurricular options than they did in the 50's and 60's, and even in the 80's and 90's when I was growing up. That's the hard truth. But it doesn't mean that we can't have a hobby where kids and teens are on O gauge and given the right incentives, and where college grads and young professionals have a good amount of O scale. I'm living proof as I acquired the majority of my collection during my 20's and 30's--it's doable if you tune your R&D and marketing appropriately.

Time's going to tell, of course, and perhaps I'm too Pollyanna, but I have hope. What I do know and what I agree with you 100% on here is that O scale is effectively doomed to a very limited production market in 10-20 years if Lionel, Atlas, Williams, TCA, and others don't sound an internal alarm and make some hard, painful moves right now.

The only MTH products I own are RailKing passenger cars because, IMO, they are the best semi-scale you can buy. And the MTH passenger car passengers (mine were bags of unpainted ones) are the perfect fit for the seats.

I never met Mike Wolf, but I hope to do so one day.

It just occurred to me that Mike Wolf is the Joshua Lionel Cowen of our time.

From all I know about Joshua Lionel Cowen, he was a great man.

Arnold

I beg pardon if I missed it, there are now 16 pages of comments.  I haven't seen much discussion about Scaletrax continuing, a track system that is loved by many and considered by some the best track system available in O (for various good reasons).   If the tooling for making Scaletrax is available to continue, I wonder if it could be marketed by another group of investors.   Seems like there have been problems with availability in the past, chalked-up to issues with the manufacturer in China.   An insight or opinions?

There has been no mention by MTH of Scaletrax or Realtrax specifically.  The only product line addressed specifically has been PS3 and DCS equipment, software, and boards.

I love Scaletrax personally.  It's a great track system that in 3 rail comes with the most realistic look.  The lower height rails with the blackened thin center rail help present a better stage for our trains.  It will be a shame if lost for sure.  The pricing was also reasonable.  The other thing is that using the Scaletrax flex is really a pleasure.  I followed Rich Batista's video on bending a lying the flex which worked fantastically.  My only complain is that the ties could be spaced a tad closer.  However, due to their size and everything else, once ballasted the spacing issue kind of disappears in your mind.

Scaletrax thin blade center rail is the best out there if you can find it. Looks like a modern day Super O.

Only issue is there were no 036 curves produced. You have to adjust height and solder 036 Atlas O to it. Lots of Dremal tool work needed as well.

I don't know how the general folks can even build a layout today due to limited availability and limitations of offered products. 

https://ogrforum.com/...5#146142158556209135

It would be interesting to see what Menards' take on the future of the hobby is.  Obviously they jumped in pretty deep recently, though at the low end, price-wise and no line of engines.  But they have a massive presence in the market place with their stores and dipping their toes in the water by making their own stuff must have had an affect on our hobby, right?  They must sell a lot of stuff around Christmas (starter sets) because they dedicate a whole aisle towards O gauge and ho stuff.  

Also, I am a huge fan of  Lemax and Dept. 56 stuff.  This IS O gauge.  Halloween and Christmas displays with O Gauge are awesome.  

And where people put these displays, trains pop up here and there.  With Menards and Michaels having these displays, I cannot believe they don't create o gauge interest/awareness on some level, some times. Lemax has battery operated trains.  If one were to start with that, I can imaging that might get boring and open the doors to an O Gauge starter set.  Why isn't Lionel, Atlas O, and MTH teaming up with those companies?  I know K-line dabbled because they HAD Lemax buildings/accessories branded as K-Line.

@SIRT posted:

Scaletrax thin blade center rail is the best out there if you can find it. Looks like a modern day Super O.

Only issue is there were no 036 curves produced. You have to adjust height and solder 036 Atlas O to it. Lots of Dremal tool work needed as well.

I don't know how the general folks can even build a layout today due to limited availability and limitations of offered products. 

Was it possible or not to bend the flex to O36?  I haven't tried or had need for that so don't know.  Tightest bend I did if recollection is correct was another layout and around O65 or so.

Most flex track seems to have difficulty bending to those tight radius's.

@romiller49 posted:

After 40 years of ownership it’s safe to say Mike most likely just got tired. I commend him for getting out while on top. When he wakes up on June 1st 2021 he will experience a wonderful feeling of relaxation and will be very happy that someone else will have to worry about the model train business. Don’t look back Mike.

Except he is not on top, is he? Haven't sales been going down and the company has downsized? Maybe this was strictly a business decision. I don't know, just speculating.

@Madockawando posted:

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market. 

I don't agree. 25 years ago was the peak period of boomers and those slightly older reentering the hobby. There was a demand and MTH filled it, along with Lionel, Weaver, Williams, 3rd Rail, and eventually Atlas. If MTH hadn't come along, someone else would have filled the need.

MTH didn't create the market. The hobby wouldn't have died off. Nor will it now. It may contract and will certainly evolve. The hobby would look very different without MTH's arrival, agreed, but I think it would still have grown.

I'll certainly miss MTH, along with Weaver and K-Line to name a few.  I'm not going to abandon the hobby because one supplier called it quits.

@TexasSP posted:

Was it possible or not to bend the flex to O36?  I haven't tried or had need for that so don't know.  Tightest bend I did if recollection is correct was another layout and around O65 or so.

FWIW I have bent Gargraves to 016 (diameter) in an attempt to see if I could run a trolley around a city corner. No doubt MTH track could do 036. Just make a template to bend it around.

Now back to your usual scheduled bickering.

Pete

I'm 66 now and have downsized from a 4100 sq ft home to a 1700 sq foot home. I've never had a fixed layout, always temporary because I like to change it up and I really just like toy trains. I can imagine though, that as I age the bride and I may downsize again, and if that happens, most o gauge will have to go, although perhaps I'd be able to keep a few starter sets, including the old postwar engine from my childhood. I can see myself transitioning to n gauge, which I've had before, and can easily be set up on top of the kitchen table, or on a folding 6 foot table. 

I have a Subway set on order, but I also have an N gauge starter set on order. My hobby dollars may begin to be funneled into the latter, although, I am ALWAYS tempted by those Lionchief starter sets, which are just too much fun--when they work :-).

If there actually is a generation behind us modeling o gauge, stand by for a waterfall of opportunities to pick up trains at a bargain when the scenario I mentioned above transpires for thousands of us. Lately I've even been of the mind that I should just give them away to anyone younger who is interested.

@Norton posted:

FWIW I have bent Gargraves to 016 (diameter) in an attempt to see if I could run a trolley around a city corner. No doubt MTH track could do 036. Just make a template to bend it around.

I'm suitably impressed, I had no idea that Gargraves would bend that much without major issues!

Maybe Mike Wolf can sell it to Mike Reagan. Then they won’t have to change the name. 

I’ll just let that sink in a bit. 

When Lionel started cranking out big scale steam in the early 2000s, it was inevitable that MTH would eventually fold. Mike knew he'd never win against a resurgent Lionel that was making a serious effort to compete in the realm that he had almost all to himself at the time. The first humble RS-11s with TMCC and Odyssey and the JLC Challengers were the first models that really stood out for that early post-modern period that helped define Lionel's commitment to the scale market. It made sense that Mike would try to fight it out in court (over practices that were probably business as usual with overseas suppliers) because he knew Lionel only had to match his models and make them just good enough to seriously erode his business. The thing is, Lionel actually made a lot of their models better at the time, especially in the case of the JLC articulateds. After the settlement, it also made sense that MTH would try to diversify their product line but it was only to make up for his losses in O gauge.

Mike did kick some a** though, and it was a fun time to be into trains during the train wars.  I feel bad for his fans and his dealers though. I hope he enjoys his retirement and writes a book. 

@MartyE posted:

Maybe Mike Wolf can sell it to Mike Reagan.

That would be great!

MELGAR

"

Maybe Mike Wolf can sell it to Mike Reagan.

That would be great!"

My guess is Marty was making this comment in jest. 

Someone who knows Mike Reagan quite well told a group of us that he is exceedingly happy in his current professional situation (TW Trainworks).  It's hard to imagine him viewing an opportunity to re-immerse himself in the administration of a small corporation and making frequent trips to China with any enthusiasm whatsoever.  But feel free to ask the man himself. He makes his email freely available, courageous dude that he is. Hopefully he would be flattered, perhaps amused and who knows, even interested if someone else put up the money. I know I would .

Ever been to one of OGRs grandstand meetings at York and watched Andy E and Mike R go at each other when Mike was still at Lionel? Imagine their board room meetings if Mike R went to MTH.

Pete

@TexasSP posted:

Was it possible or not to bend the flex to O36?  I haven't tried or had need for that so don't know.  Tightest bend I did if recollection is correct was another layout and around O65 or so.

Atlas o 21st century are fixed curves. I could have bent the flex MTH scale trax but it would be risky to bend any track to 036. Just would not work since Atlas curves are perfect. A little shimming along with soldering the joints. I also jumped the out side rails together for trouble free operation as on my main layout.

I'm inserting the black paper black top strips over the built up sticks on the Atlas curves right now for the 3rd rail camo street look!

@eddie g posted:

MADOCKAWANDO, You have it right. To add to that, Soon the TCA York meet will go back to a almost all collector meet.

An all  collector meet with no dealers selling new stuff.  Just a bunch of old fools selling old stuff.  The future of the hobby!!!!

@Landsteiner posted:

"My guess is Marty was making this comment in jest. “

The conversation was getting stale. Thought I’d liven it up a little. Lol.