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Thought I'd share this interesting article (cut and pasted by me to avoid the WSJ logon):

SYDNEY—Mining giant Rio Tinto calls it the world’s largest robot: mile-long driverless trains traversing the sparsely populated Australian Outback on roughly 1,000 miles of track. American railroad companies, seeking to boost network efficiencies, call it the future.

U.S. rail-freight operators say greater automation will make their networks safer and more productive. They point to railroads owned by Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto as a blueprint for the 140,000-mile private U.S. network that moves vast quantities of everything from cars to corn.

A decade in the making, Rio Tinto’s driverless train system, called Auto Haul™, now manages roughly 200 locomotives that move iron ore from inland mines to coastal ports in Western Australia. The trains are operated hundreds of miles away, in an office block in Perth.

Rio Tinto’s network, which began formally operating in driverless mode late last month, is the first fully autonomous, long-haul freight railroad. Rail-company executives from countries including the U.S. and Canada have visited to see the technology in action, said Ivan Vella, Rio Tinto’s head of iron-ore rail services.

American companies say automating tasks once handled by crew will create fluid networks more akin to a model train set. Around 5 million tons of goods are moved daily on the U.S. network, which freight operators share with passenger trains, generating more than $70 billion in revenue annually.

Drivers have variable skills, so a generous distance is kept between trains. In doing so, companies sacrifice valuable rail capacity. Also, the different ways that drivers run locomotives lead to inconsistent wear-and-tear and fuel use, while human error accounts for more than one-third of accidents, according to the Association of American Railroads, an industry trade group.

Last November, miner BHP Group Ltd. was forced to derail a 268-wagon runaway train in Australia’s Pilbara region, the origin of half the world’s iron-ore exports. The train rolled away after its driver disembarked to inspect a wagon and failed to secure the brake.

Labor unions and some lawmakers worry about risks to public safety, cyber threats and job cuts from increased automation. Rail-freight companies have typically offered some of the nation’s best-paid jobs, with an average annual salary of more than $125,000, said the AAR, which represents most major railroads. The country’s biggest Class I railroads employed roughly 147,000 people in 2017.

“Americans want a rail network and a transportation system that serves the people, not one that simply makes money for stockholders by eliminating good jobs and quality rail service,” Railroad Workers United, a coalition of unions, said in a statement submitted last year to the Federal Railroad Administration, which was seeking comments on the future of automation in the industry. RWU opposes crews of fewer than two people.

Reaching a consensus among companies, unions and regulators on how many drivers, if any, should remain on board will likely take a long time, said CSX Corp. Chief Executive James Foote.

U.S. rail-freight operators, whose trains are typically staffed by a conductor and engineer, say the goal isn’t to do away with drivers immediately. They contend there are many steps to reach the sort of driverless network Rio Tinto has created, although a shift toward more one-person crews is anticipated as new technologies are implemented.

“The lack of certainty makes investments in technology and innovation cautious endeavors that result in small gains, not leaps forward,” the AAR said in a filing to the Federal Railroad Administration last month.

Today, efforts to advance automation are being held back by regulations that haven’t kept pace with technological change, executives say. They fear falling behind as vehicle makers develop self-driving cars and autonomous trucks.

The Transportation Department released guidelines on autonomous vehicles in October but didn’t address autonomous trains in detail.

Existing regulations typically dictate that tasks such as track inspections be conducted by people. Operators say this could be done better using an automated system.

The AAR has urged transport officials to grant waivers on what it says are outdated rules and allow railroads and manufacturers to create voluntary standards for safety technology, where possible. The Federal Railroad Administration was unable to comment because of the continuing government shutdown.

The 200-year-old industry has spent most of the past decade developing positive train control technology, designed to automatically stop a train to prevent collisions. That system, which uses GPS information and track data, has created a platform to operate trains more independently.

“The Rio Tinto example clearly shows the technology is here,” said John Scheib, chief legal officer at Norfolk Southern Corp. “It shows that our regulator needs to move more quickly to open the doors to such technologies,” he said.

Rio Tinto’s trains complete an average return journey of 500 miles in 40 hours. Previously, the miner had to shuttle nearly 100 drivers around these scrubby outlands to switch train drivers three times for each journey. That totaled almost a million miles a year and the changeovers added more than an hour to each return train trip.

Today, a train controller at its Perth operations center sets the route, then computers both at the center and on-board take over to make decisions. Before the system was set up, the miner faced repeated setbacks. The project ran three years late and to almost double the original budget.

“What Auto Haul does,” though, “is drive it better than the best driver, every time,” Mr. Vella said.

Of course, there are many people in Australia “who love driving trains [and] they are disappointed they don’t get to drive trains anymore,” he said. “We are trying to give them alternatives.”

Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com

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I don't buy it. The railroads can say whatever they want, and point to Australian success hauling inert ore through the middle of nowhere. US railroads are a different animal and will always require human attention. Total automation isn't all it's cracked up to be. As long as there are railroads in this country, there will be humans on board, even if they only monitor the train's actions.

mlavender480 posted:

Oh, they’ll try it, guaranteed.  Whether it succeeds remains to be seen.  The Australian outback is a lot different than a congested terminal district or a busy multi-track main line like the NS Pittsburgh Line or the BNSF transcon, so there will be different challenges.  Still... they’ll try it.

Do you really think the railroads are going to get this past a Congress that gave them PTC?

I take anything the WSJ says with a grain of salt because of who owns it.

I am very fiscally conservative, but I do think at some point in the not too distant future Artificial Intelligence is going to necessitate a drastic change in society's economic structure.  I think AI, possibly in my lifetime (I am 48), will eliminate many jobs, and engineers and truck drivers will be at the front end of this, and enrich companies and cause the need for some kind of basic living wage for all.  Not sure I want to see this happen, but I think that's where it's going, and it probably won't happen without some great pain beforehand.

Last edited by pennsy484

I could see something like this being tested on the Joint Line in WY, outside of winter.  Trains are unit coal trains.  The trains going to each mine has its set number of cars and locomotives.   

But on lines with a mixure of trains and cars, I do not thinkk it is anywhere near prime time yet.

The problem comes if there are wrecks with deaths and/or injuries.  Will the payout to victims in the courtroom outway the cost of equipment or savings?

This reminds me of the question from JURASSIC PARK:  We were so concerned about whether we COULD do something that we forgot to ask if we SHOULD.

Last edited by Dominic Mazoch

We've HAD automated railroads since the early 1970's, the BM&LP. 

And both BART and the DC Metro are automated, with the "engineer" acting as an attendant when in automatic train operation mode.  Which is the normal method of operation. 

Not an argument for or against, just an example of the fact that the basic technological issues of starting, running and stopping trains have been solved 40 years ago. 

What to do when all of our jobs are replaced by automation is the government's problem since the biggest losers will be those whose livelihood depend on taxes. 

Last edited by Rule292
Big_Boy_4005 posted:
mlavender480 posted:

Oh, they’ll try it, guaranteed.  Whether it succeeds remains to be seen.  The Australian outback is a lot different than a congested terminal district or a busy multi-track main line like the NS Pittsburgh Line or the BNSF transcon, so there will be different challenges.  Still... they’ll try it.

Do you really think the railroads are going to get this past a Congress that gave them PTC?

Eventually, yes.

mlavender480 posted:
Big_Boy_4005 posted:
mlavender480 posted:

Oh, they’ll try it, guaranteed.  Whether it succeeds remains to be seen.  The Australian outback is a lot different than a congested terminal district or a busy multi-track main line like the NS Pittsburgh Line or the BNSF transcon, so there will be different challenges.  Still... they’ll try it.

Do you really think the railroads are going to get this past a Congress that gave them PTC?

Eventually, yes.

The locomotive controls can certainly be automated but we don't currently have a robotic pin puller. 

Tough to admit the truth but automation developed and built by the hands of man can do things better than the hands of man.    I don't own an automatic transmission vehicle (out of 4 that I do own), but automatics can do anything I do and even better. 

Only time will tell how the robotic "seeing" technology for things such a lane changing and following distance work out.    Once we get past the initial "dumbing down of the driver arguments" ya gotta admit they are like having a second set of eyes.

Not sure how that correlates to railroading, since it's certainly light years less difficult to design and program ATO for a 4 car Metro subway train to travel the grade from Arlington under the Potomac to Foggy Bottom than it is to design hardware and write software to get mineral trains over the old Saluda Mountain grade.

IIRC the old ATO programming for WMATA (which was modeled from BARTD IIRC) was written in FORTRAN.

 

Last edited by Rule292
Big_Boy_4005 posted:

I don't buy it. The railroads can say whatever they want, and point to Australian success hauling inert ore through the middle of nowhere. US railroads are a different animal and will always require human attention. Total automation isn't all it's cracked up to be. As long as there are railroads in this country, there will be humans on board, even if they only monitor the train's actions.

Darn right!!What might be right for them does not make it right for us.Besides australian rail roads are different.They have miles and miles of nothing.In the fact they do not go through cities and towns nor do they deal with crossing.I hope the unions fight with every thing got to keep this madness away from here!!

mlavender480 posted:

Oh, they’ll try it, guaranteed.  Whether it succeeds remains to be seen.  The Australian outback is a lot different than a congested terminal district or a busy multi-track main line like the NS Pittsburgh Line or the BNSF transcon, so there will be different challenges.  Still... they’ll try it.

Bam there it is.If they have a derailment out there no big deal.But its a different book all together here in this country.With so many towns and cities the railroads go through.And then there the railroad crossings.Can not build a bridge over every railroad.No its a bad idea to even consider bring that over to this country.I wonder are they willing to risk a large pay out if something goes wrong.And they take out a fair sized town with people hurt or whorse.

Rule292 posted:

We've HAD automated railroads since the early 1970's, the BM&LP. 

And both BART and the DC Metro are automated, with the "engineer" acting as an attendant when in automatic train operation mode.  Which is the normal method of operation. 

Not an argument for or against, just an example of the fact that the basic technological issues of starting, running and stopping trains have been solved 40 years ago. 

What to do when all of our jobs are replaced by automation is the government's problem since the biggest losers will be those whose livelihood depend on taxes. 

That's when humans become obsolete. The machines don't need us anymore.

Last edited by Big_Boy_4005

It's coming, it will dramatically increase efficiency, and it will be as safe or safer than current operations. Do I like it? No. There will be some job offset as people will be needed to install, maintain, and operate the control systems, it won't be one for one. 

The world is changing whether we like it or not, just like steam engines, cabooses, and land line phones. How many of us even have land line phones any more? In 10 years almost no one will. 

And machines, as of yet, do not understand FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION.

These are airplane situations.  Simulators said that DC10 should have crashed way before that airport in IA.  Or the Airbus in the Hudson should have broken up on impact.

But I can guess there have been rail situations where a human saved the day, and the simulator would have said NO WAY.

There are some parts of human thinking which cannot be reduced to a GOSUB program.  Machines ad of yet, canno experience pucker time.  Machines as of yet do not have the fear of death emotion.

Last edited by Dominic Mazoch
Rule292 posted:

We've HAD automated railroads since the early 1970's, the BM&LP. 

And both BART and the DC Metro are automated, with the "engineer" acting as an attendant when in automatic train operation mode.  Which is the normal method of operation. 

As is the Vancouver rapid transit line.  THAT doesn't even have an attendant!   

As for Australia, well, I recall that runaway train from a month or two back... 

Mitch 

Things change. There aren't nearly as many wheelwrights, coopers and blacksmiths as there were in 1890 .  Back then there were zero software engineers, fast food workers and automobile mechanics, not to mention anesthesiologists and cardiac surgeons.  For operating most types of machinery, human beings are simply not as reliable and accurate as robots. 

That's why we have close to 40,000 deaths per year on the roads and highways.  Between inattention and poor judgment, human beings as operators of motor vehicles cause a lot of suffering and expense, much of which will not exist in 50-100 years, hopefully.  Train drivers/engineers are professionals and less of a problem, but still less close to perfect than will be possible with robotics, AI and detection/operation technology (LIDAR, etc.).

For the record, I wasn’t saying that it should or shouldn’t happen.  Just that it will at least be attempted, and probably implemented on some scale.  Obviously an automated locomotive can’t handle yard or local switching; you need at minimum an RCL operator (another thing I’m not a fan of, but that’s another story) to perform those jobs.  It’ll be through-freight runs that are automated. Yard crew/RCL will put the train together, car department will make the air test, etc.  Then the “system” will run the train to its final terminal and the yard/local crews will do their thing.  Also, short lines and many regionals won’t automate.

All that said, I’m not sold on it.  

pennsy484 posted:

I am very fiscally conservative, but I do think at some point in the not too distant future Artificial Intelligence is going to necessitate a drastic change in society's economic structure.  I think AI, possibly in my lifetime (I am 48), will eliminate many jobs, and engineers and truck drivers will be at the front end of this, and enrich companies and cause the need for some kind of basic living wage for all.  Not sure I want to see this happen, but I think that's where it's going, and it probably won't happen without some great pain beforehand.

Amen, and thank you. 

Philosophers have noodled over the notion of leisure time since Aristotle wore a toga. Their conclusions are fleeting; however, they seem to agree that there is a Goldilocks balance (a pony?) in the pile somewhere. Too much leisure time and we have human tendencies (toward sloth) to deal with. Too little and the fat cats seem to win, at the expense of the worker.

Here in Wyoming, with the War on Coal all but won and done, there are thousands of unemployed miners with nothing but time on their hands and they have filled it with opioid addiction (I am vastly simplifying the problem, I know). 

It used to be, and perhaps still is, that unfilled time and the need to feed one's family would lead to other discoveries and thereby, other work. A basic living wage, the product of a tax on robots I suppose, would be a kind of unemployment benefit. But whether it would lead to greater discoveries, rather than sloth, remains to be seen. 

My two cents. 

There's also the difference between a railfan/modeler's perspective and that of someone in the railroad industry, translated as what we don't want to see happen and what will likely happen. I can't count how many times someone on this forum has brought up the prospect of steam being used in the industry once again, all from the expertise of someone who plays with toy trains. Even with my admitted limited knowledge of the prototype world, I can grasp reality. 

Last edited by Former Member

This is from a recent article about Norfolk Southern & PTC...Which by the way was Federally Mandated not "given" to the railroads by Congress...

“What we are doing is leveraging the safety enhancements of PTC and the data generated by the Global Positioning System (GPS) for optimized operations,” says Warren Stubbs, Director of Information System Development at NS. “We try to minimize human transactions. We want autonomous operations, not just autonomous trains.”

"Central to NS’s network optimization is GE Transportation’s Movement Planner (MP) System. A subset of the Unified Train Control System (UCTS) introduced in the 1990s and first implemented by NS in 2004, MP is automating train routing, switch control and signals, and sending dispatch commands directly to locomotives. “It’s the brains of automated dispatching, with GE’s AutoRouter as the execution tool,” says Charlie Turnipseed, System Manager Dispatch Operations."

“With PTC integration, you can take everyone off the train. The development phase will take three to four years, including the sensor package and machine vision, and it will be 10 years to full integration” —until, he adds, public sentiment is firmly on the side of autonomous vehicle technology. “The last 10% of event-solving,” he admits, “is going to be a bear.

"The railroad, with operations evenly split between road trains and local switching, is also focusing on yard automation—centralized control, car inspections, predictive maintenance and more. “We’ve seen a 20-30% improvement in yard throughput with automated imagery and remote-control locomotives,” Plonk says. Norfolk Southern is even working with a third party on automated uncoupling, to further streamline hump yard operations."

LaramieJoe posted:

It used to be, and perhaps still is, that unfilled time and the need to feed one's family would lead to other discoveries and thereby, other work. A basic living wage, the product of a tax on robots I suppose, would be a kind of unemployment benefit. But whether it would lead to greater discoveries, rather than sloth, remains to be seen. 

My two cents. 

Your two cents are worth a million, Doctor.    Unfortunately what I would respond is out of scope of a train forum, but like Dave F posted, I don't see a rosy future of average folks sitting at home 24x7 twiddling thumbs.  

Fortunately at least for a while we'll need someone on board to "watch"  automated systems, whether cars, locomotives or aircraft.   Because anything produced by the hands of man, including automation , will have imperfection. 

The real problem is not lack of jobs.  It is the lack of jobs in specific places and the absence of skilled / educated workers for the jobs that are available.  Employers tell me that they can't find skilled workers here in CA.  Electricians and plumbers are in short supply.  One employer who has job openings in his plant told me that many candidates couldn't answer this question:  "How many inches are in a foot?"  Other job candidates can't make change.  

People are going to need to return to school and perhaps relocate to make themselves employable in the future.  There will probably be a lot of railroad jobs available for all kinds of computer engineers and programmers in the future.  Employees will need to make sure that they have these skills.

NH Joe

Last edited by New Haven Joe
Farmer_Bill posted:

Local grocer took out the self checkouts, said they were losing money on them. 

 Driverless trains probably see limited use in the USA in our lifetimes.

Might help if stores had an electronic bugular alarm at the end of the self checkout line.

I have used self checkout.  In some ways it is SLOWER than the regular ones.  And they talk so much they make Edith Bunker look like a Trappist Nun!

Last edited by Dominic Mazoch
New Haven Joe posted:

The real problem is not lack of jobs.  It is the lack of jobs in specific places and the absence of skilled / educated workers for the jobs that are available.  Employers tell me that they can't find skilled workers here in CA.  Electricians and plumbers are in short supply.  One employer who has job openings in his plant told me that many candidates couldn't answer this question:  "How many inches are in a foot?"  Other job candidates can't make change.  

People are going to need to return to school and perhaps relocate to make themselves employable in the future.  There will probably be a lot of railroad jobs available for all kinds of computer engineers and programmers in the future.  Employees will need to make sure that they have these skills.

NH Joe

So are you inferring that the quality of education has deteriorated to the point where we can't find enough people with basic qualifications? I would actually agree, and it's frightening. 

My son finished college a few years ago, but has just been selling cell phones at Best Buy in Grand Forks, ND. Last week, I had to have a sewage lift pump replaced, when a seal failed not even two years from when it was installed. The plumber said the pump was under warranty, but that the labor was going to be $1100. He wasn't even there for 90 minutes. That's an hourly rate that would make some lawyers envious. After that, I suggested to my son that he take up a trade. He seemed less than thrilled. I guess he doesn't like money that much. 

Byrdie posted:

Just a thought provoking question - how many of you use the self checkout at the many, many stores that are now implementing them?

I use it all the time. If you only have a few items with bar codes its much faster and more convenient than waiting for a cashier. Automation is coming. What we have to figure out is how to take care of the millions that will be out of their current jobs. Truck drivers are on the front lines here in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how society will react. How governments will react. This will be a much larger change than when we went from a mostly agrarian work force to an industrialized one. The next 50 to 100 years will be very interesting. 

J 611 posted:
Byrdie posted:

Just a thought provoking question - how many of you use the self checkout at the many, many stores that are now implementing them?

I use it all the time. If you only have a few items with bar codes its much faster and more convenient than waiting for a cashier. Automation is coming. What we have to figure out is how to take care of the millions that will be out of their current jobs. Truck drivers are on the front lines here in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how society will react. How governments will react. This will be a much larger change than when we went from a mostly agrarian work force to an industrialized one. The next 50 to 100 years will be very interesting. 

Well, when things get screwed up at the self checkout, guess what, the human comes over to fix it.

Same for trains and just about everything else.

The reason I posted my question about self checkout was hit on the head by the "automation is coming" comment.  I like even better the comment further back in the thread that asked, "Just because we can do something, does that mean we should?"

I will not use self checkout unless forced by a lack of cashiers (that's happened once at a big box hardware store).  I have been laid off twice in my work career, the second time for 9 months.  It was the most harrowing thing I've been through.  It gave me a whole new understanding of what/why employers are doing to the work force.  To state it simply, the Walmart near my home has two groups of 6 self check counters, each of which is watched by one employee.  To my way of thinking, that puts 10 people (5 at each group) out of work.  To Walmart's way of thinking, the cost of losses by people not scanning every item that passes across the register is more than offset by the money they save not paying an employee a living wage and benefits - mostly the benefits.

There's a trickle down effect here that the proponents of automation aren't thinking of.  Walmart needs people to earn a wage so they can spend it in their stores.  Truckers need gainfully employed persons spending money on goods that were moved by truck.  Likewise for trains, planes and many of the other business that are using automation.  When GM and Ford use robots to do the welding on their assembly lines, a skilled worker is not earning that wage who might otherwise need to purchase one of their cars to get to work.

I understand the some of the truth that pushes employers to prefer automation is the quality of the workforce that's available.  I've run into too many that would rather sit at home playing video games earning from their investments than take a skilled job that contributes to society, not understanding that the investments they wish to make aren't free.

The still greater truth is that the employers that would prefer to automate want to do so to increase profits.  Less cost input equals greater margin, more for the investor.  And more often than not, the greatest stakeholders in a business are the management, not the skilled employees.

To bring this rant back around to the original discussion, I'm not thrilled about the idea of riding on an automated train.  While it may be true that automation doesn't make "human error," it also can't exercise "human judgement."  Humans may be more prone to error but when automation fails, the failures are usually more catastrophic.  I don't like the way cockpit crews are shrinking, not thrilled that trains have less and less crew and don't like self check.  Called me old fashioned but when humans are totally removed from all of these I'll stick to my car - and it won't be driverless.

More important to me is the cost to the humans who need gainful employment rather than the risk involved.  I don't insist that everyone adopt my way of thinking but am happy to explain it those who are willing to listen.  If that wasn't you, then I apologize for having taken your time.

So, are we going to allow driverless trucks but not allow driverless trains?  That question will not be quickly answered.

As it exists today, many trains in the US are actually operated by robotics, with a qualified crew aboard to set up the computerized equipment at the beginning of the trip and to handle any switching or unplanned movements en route, or to manually operate the train in the event of a robotics failure.  The stated reason for use of this equipment is fuel economy, as the robotics are never tempted to vary from the standard procedures specified for locomotive and air brake operation, and they are programmed to be very conservative in approaching speed restrictions and stopping points.

Last edited by Number 90
Big_Boy_4005 posted:
J 611 posted:
Byrdie posted:

Just a thought provoking question - how many of you use the self checkout at the many, many stores that are now implementing them?

I use it all the time. If you only have a few items with bar codes its much faster and more convenient than waiting for a cashier. Automation is coming. What we have to figure out is how to take care of the millions that will be out of their current jobs. Truck drivers are on the front lines here in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how society will react. How governments will react. This will be a much larger change than when we went from a mostly agrarian work force to an industrialized one. The next 50 to 100 years will be very interesting. 

Well, when things get screwed up at the self checkout, guess what, the human comes over to fix it.

Same for trains and just about everything else.

Just wait, the self checkout in the McDonald's in the train station will get screwed up and the autopilot trains will crash through the bumpers at the end of the tracks in the station while asking you if you want your receipt.....

Have you ever noticed that stock prices go up when companies announce layoffs? There is something morally out of  line about that, at least to me.

It seems like we are always happy when we grow the nation's population, but if we don't have real jobs, that pay a living wage, why do we need more people? There's a growing trend to take away well paying jobs, in favor of automation.

In a way, this move to automate trains may be far more expensive than just using the two man crews that we currently have. The money they pour into the development will pay a lot of people for a long time.

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