In the latest MR there is an article on the same topic--the state of the hobby. The article states the hobby is alive and well but that the people entering the hobby now want modern equipment. I found it very interesting.
Joe,
I am seeing this happening at our HO club. The younger members mostly buy and run modern trains. The layout is set in the 1950 -1959 time period. I wonder if the Pacific Fruit Express icing facility and large roundhouse will eventually be replaced by an inter modal facility.
I'd say you are correct in your assumptions, and that they will be replaced (just like they were on the prototype)...it's evolution, progress, call it what you like...and it never ceases.
There is also a lot of outstanding modern equipment being made by Lionel, MTH, Atlas and others. Every catalog is filled with SD70s, ESACs, etc.
Yes there is...even I have a few pieces, like the AtlasO Dash-8 40B, and the MTH Premier SD60M. The MTH SD60's stellar body tooling, etched brass walkways with EMD tread, and the etched, see-though grills, screens, and fan covers are superb.
I do agree with just about everything that the wise KeystonedEd has written...to quote Ed, "...its hard to escape the conclusion that modern mainline modelling takes quite a bit more space for the same "effect" than transition era modelling. Space most folks don't have for a home layout, and why I believe modern era O scale modelling will remain a minority element within a minority scale."
One area where modern O is slowly starting to expand (not dominating there yet, but is on its way) is in P48 (a minority, within a minority, within a minority!)
P48 has seen a LOT of growth in the last five years; the majority of that growth are the 20-40 somethings that have discovered the "captivation of 1/4" railroading, but relate to a steam locomotives about as easily as they do the 8-track tape. As the transition-era population ages out or passes on, they are being replaced by the modern modeler.
Ed also insightfully mentioned "modern mainline modelling" but that is not where their interests tend to lie. They want to model modern, but they want to do it in a moderate to small space. They are big-time into shelf and switching layouts, and/or are interested in modeling just a single industry that is fed by off-scene staging, like a paper company, or an outfit that mixes and bottles beverages, like Gatorade or Snapple. You get a nice variety of equipment in and out, spend a lot of time switching the actual plant, making up and setting out cuts of cars for pickup by the off-scene transfer freight that shows up once or twice a day from staging, etc.
There's a major paradigm shift underway in 2017, when it comes to layout concept, construction, execution, and operation (i.e. Mike Cougill's "The Missing Conversation" series and his own Indiana and Whitewater RR. )
Indiana & Whitewater
These new modelers are interested in branch lines and/or freelancing, and fully embrace the ideal of "less is more", when it comes to the linear feet of track they lay, the number of locomotives they roster, and the length of an average train. But where they take it to extremes is with the level of detail in every aspect of what they build. Tie plates and four spikes per tie on everything, full switch details to include gauge plates and every single rail brace, etc. They might only have a dozen switches total, but they are exact replicas in every way.
(image courtesy OST Publications)
They build full under frames beneath their diesels, even adding details like the flexible electrical cabling to the traction motors. For them it's not about a "grand pike" as much as it is an "operational, museum quality diorama", with one or more fully fleshed out scenes or industries, connected by a common set of rails (most of it single tracked with cTc, or even dark territory).
Ed Nadolski's work is another example...here's his version of a seriously tricked out AtlasO cylindrical hopper.
Ed's Walong Loop RR is still in the early stages of construction, but typifies the "modern" shelf style. Here's a YouTube link showing his progress. His low hood GP9 was extensively kit bashed from a Red Caboose body.
Ed's Walong Loop
Matt Forsyth
Forsyth Rail Services