Train hobby - interest, value, collectability?

The hobby seems pretty healthy to me, whenever I go to TCA meets, hear about York, or visit one of the three LHS in my area, so I don't think declining interest has anything to do with it.  There will always be a market for those rare pre- and post-war locos, but I think the price trends are inevitable, no matter how healthy the hobby is.

Modern toy trains are better - at least a lot of them: more detailed, better runners, and of course, sound and cruise and all that help a lot, too.  Who wouldn't want all that?

It's not that different in other hobbies, particularly what seems to be the most popular other hobby here: cars.  "Post-war" cars - at least some of them - are cool and very sought after, but I doubt many are under the illusion they are better than today's cars.  I had a '53 Cadillac Coupe De Ville for a while - all rebult and restored, and even with a modern crate motor and AC system installed, etc., it was unsatsifactory on any basis except its charm and romance: a poor handling pig of a car with lousy brakes, imprecise steering, and marginally comfortable seats, etc.  

That pretty much sums up the way I see it, too!  Nothing positive is accomplished by worrying too much about the future, which none of us can predict or control.

My thoughts are that there has been no better time to be into o gauge trains than today. 

With 100 years of trains made and some excellent scale and non-scale trains made today, coupled with the accessibility made possible by the internet, whatever niche in the hobby one wanted to follow is very easy to follow.

Pre-war, post-war, MPC, modern, scale, semi-scale, traditional, etc., interests are so easy to pursue.  Definitely no better time to be in the hobby.

Jim

I have loved toy trains my entire life.  Literally through thick and thin.  I can remember back in the mid 1960s when virtually everyone, except for a very small minority, said toy trains were dead.   Frankly, at that point I really didn't care what the naysayers were claiming.  I still had my trains and I still loved running them.  Well,  as it turned out the naysayers were wrong

I have gotten a real kick out of the technological progression which has taken place in the toy train industry over the last twenty-five years and have willingly participated in it.  I have moaned and groaned like many others regarding out of box failures from today's manufacturers and because of the cost of many of today's items I have reduced my purchases accordingly.  Nevertheless,  I think because of the competition in today's industry it really has become the golden age of toy trains.  Whether this bodes well for the future of the industry I have no way of knowing.  For now, I'm simply going to enjoy everything I can while I can.

I feel like Michael. I don't look at trains as a hobby it's such a big part of my life. It's very personal for me. Funny I never showed my last layout to many people. Most in the area didn't even know I liked trains. Same with the new layout. I don't let anyone down there because it has a long way tell it's finished. To me it's like showing a painting that's not finished. I only show my layout to this forum and the magazine. Don

IMO it's the economy. The amount of disposable income of the new "fake rich" has dried up. In 1999 some kids were getting $90K jobs and BMW's right out of college. People like my boss were buying weird and / or over priced real estate. The competition for trains from people with this funny money was very great, but eventually the bubble popped for everyone. I thought the 1990's were tough price increase wise, and the late 1990's early 2000's brought us the absurd $6000 Western Pacific F3. I don't think the decline in prices has been as quick as the increase was. There were a lot of people that could hang on rather than take a loss. Finally, many are throwing in the towel as things have not reversed, and IMO they were not "train people" to begin with. For someone like me, I'm glad to see a lot of items that I have wanted drop to 1985 prices.

The value that I attach to our trains is the enjoyment they bring to us. Everything on the layout is TMCC/Legacy and I have had minimal issues with the electronics. Buying trains as an investment strategy seldom works.

You have to sift out what you read. The easy temptation is to post a complaint about something that is not working properly. On the other side of the coin, if something is working perfectly fine, for the most part the success stories are seldom posted. So take what you read with a measured response.

As others have stated, O gauge trains are part of my life and have been ever since my first Lionel train set Santa left for me when I was 7 years old. 

It has nothing to do with value, collecting or interest.  It has to do with enjoyment, fun and imagination into a world I made with O gauge trains.  It has to do with the happiness I can give to others by sharing my hobby.

Steve, Lady and Tex

"Collectability" is partly related to scarcity.  No one is making original Rembrandts or Louis XIV furniture any more. It's a common observation that right after an artist dies, the value of his or her work at last temporarily increases, likely in part for this reason.

In toy trains, there's something to this as well.  No one is making original prewar or postwar trains any longer, and those around in mint or like new condition are few and far between.  So those maintain value.  More ordinary trains in poorer condition are relatively common.  So as long as toy trains from the early and middle of the 20th century are of interest to someone, they are likely to hold some value. Probably not a great investment as they've already been "bid up" by the decades.

In the mid and late 1980s when Lionel was "rescued" by Richard Kughn, production was constrained, but many new items or reproductions were made, and these sometimes soared in value initially because not many new trains had been made in the previous decades.  There was pent up demand as well.  By the mid-1990s, repros were being made by both MTH and Lionel, and Lionel and MTH were producing a lot of new trains as well. Supply began to meet and then ultimately even exceed the demand.  Some of this was because of more reasonable prices, largely made possible by lower cost manufacturing outside the US.  Scarcity became a non-issue for new production, by and large.

Thus availability, demand and time have all played a role in what is now considered by the market to be collectible and what is being produced.  More three railers are interested in hi-rail and operating than in toy trains and collecting, proportionally, as compared with the 1980s or early 1990s.  I cannot prove this, but it seems to be the case.  Lionel's beginner set sales remain robust as best one can tell, so the appeal of simple toy trains at reasonable prices (whatever those are ) remains for some.

The bottom line is no one knows whether or not the multitude of products made between 1970 and today are eventually going to be collectible, but the likelihood of their appreciating greatly in price, as did mint prewar and postwar,  seems low to me.  The advice to buy trains, toy or otherwise, for your entertainment and not for investment seems 100% sound to me as well.

I happen to be one of the ones with very few problems also. I do try to state that every once in a while around here too. As I said in my original post, the modern electronics are what got me back into trains a few couple ago, enjoying it is what is keeping me at it. I also think being in O gauge has never been better!

Only problems I have had were self inflicted, a couple were good buys on ebay, I have learned my lesson there. One other casualty was due to too much experimentation on a crossing signal, had to get another one after that. I'm sure a day will come when I have a problem, but who hasn't had problems with something, appliances, cars, houses, etc.

One view of this phenomenon can be traced back to the fact that late in the 1960's -- especially 1967-1970 -- we witnessed a DRAMATIC reduction in Lionel toy train production.  Looking back on those years, they represented a small chunk of time (in the grand picture), but that chunk of time was very instrumental in leaving us with the impression that O-Gauge toy trains were a thing of the past... which in turn caused values to sky rocket (i.e., think 6464 box cars, rolling stock color variations, well-maintained locomotives, ZW's, etc....).

So when Lionel (in whatever re-incarnation of the company that came to be) began producing reproductions in the 1970's and 1980's, toy train enthusiasts thought they'd witnessed the "second coming", and grabbed items quickly so as to avoid the disappointment of missing out on stuff they may have missed out on back in the 1950's and early 1960's...  and WITHOUT paying post-war premiums for stuff that had gone through the roof pricewise.

Little did we know, we had entered a new era of production -- the likes of which continue to this day -- where we would never again witness a decline in product offerings and availability of product.  In fact, we've experienced the exact opposite with an enormous glut of product in what continues to be a super-saturated environment.

Sure, I suppose traditional toy trains that are extremely well-maintained ingreat condition will always hold value for some folks as "true originals".  But just about everything else that's been produced during the "modern era" is pretty much a victim of the technology treadmill.  So we see values decline sharply with the introduction of version "n+1" of a product -- regardless of how incremental the improvement(s) may be in e newest release.

The only way we'll see values stablize (or increase) would be if we experienced another sustained period of 4-5 years like the late 1960's, where a new generation of toy train enthusiasts could "feel what it's like" to have truly limited production -- or a halt in production -- of toy trains, period.  Failing that, we'll just continue on in what appears to be a golden age or "roaring 20's era" of toy trains where nothing is ever in short supply, thereby causing many folks to only value the very latest of what's being produced.

David

P.S.  As an aside, the comment of an earlier poster about toy train supply finally meeting demand due to "more reasonable prices made possible by overseas manufacturing" is highly questionable.  We've seen no evidence of that whatsoever, and the history books will likely look back on efforts to move production of various products (of all kinds) overseas as means by which lower production costs could help companies bolster profits or channel those profits to upper echelon ranks.  Very seldom did those lower production costs result in less expensive consumer prices -- whether we're talking toy trains or name-brand sneakers.    The technology treadmill, in and of itself, has a greater impact on value for one's money than moving production overseas ever did.

Thank goodness for all those guys buying the Vision Big Boy for over $1,800 so I can buy it for $500 ten years from now.

We both have something to look forward to there, but unfortunately I have lost interest in steam, only have diesels. Maybe an exception could be made?

Edit: Of course by then there will be a much more advanced version and no one will want this one.

"Very seldom did those lower production costs result in less expensive consumer products"

Well, for Lionel trains, the combination of off-shore manufacture and competition, mainly from offshore competitors like MTH, has definitely kept prices way down.  In the mid-1990s Lionel offered a new spiffy diesel for about $600+ that was top of the line, made in the good old USA.  Now those high end diesels are priced at more like $450+ despite 20 years of inflation.  Perhaps it was the competition alone, but I doubt that price drop could have been sustained without cheaper production abroad.

I didn't know all the history, but your comment is exactly along the lines I was thinking. In another reply I just made, I said I had no desire to own any older trains, which I personally don't. Only want the new and modern ones with command control, sound and all the new features. If not for that I would most likely have no trains today. That re-kindled the old train fire from long ago. After being out of it for many years, I could not believe all the new features the new trains had, amazing. 

I'm hoping we continue on without another lull in production. All the manufacturing problems in China come to mind. Hope they have stabilized there and continue to steadily produce product. I would like to see the manufacturers make a profit and continue to make nice new trains for us for a long time.

Just hope they don't get too pricey so everyone stops buying. I know some can afford them, but with every price increase they are probably squeezing out a few people. Of course I have read many posts here about Lionel trains from the pre war and post war era and what they cost back then compared to average incomes. May have been more pricey back then. 

At any rate, I'm enjoying it while I can! I do agree it's a great time for O gauge. Some amazing stuff out there. Sometimes I feel like a kid again, waiting for a new product or catalog to be released.

I hate to rain on your parade. Odds are anything made today will be no more than a oversized "paper-weight" by then.

I'm in this wonderful hobby for the memories of the past. My earliest memories are of being on my grandpa's knee running all of his prewar beauties. When 1947 came along it was his trains 24/7. Sadly he past away in 1955. He is still missed to this day. I inherited all of his trains and layout. I still own the original prewar layout and the best part...all of those wonderful Std & O-Gauge tinplate. Each and everyone enjoy layout time often.

as an example, when I first entered this hobby more than 20 years ago. I always wanted the ZW transformer I saw on my father-in-laws layout. I did NOT want to spend $300. So I waited, 10 years into the hobby, went to a rummage sale and found my 1rst ZW for $25, BOOM!

But after having said that,

After attending many train shows and meets over the years I have watched the price of ZWs drop from $300, more than 20 years ago, to $150 recently.

I think we are getting a lot more "bang for the buck" these days for O scale and other scales too. Jut go to MTH web site and compare the price of a Premier steam engine made in 2000 and the same engine that is re-made recently. One will be amazed that most likely it is the same price, over 10 years later and it has better details and Proto sound 2 or 3. I used to collect/run HO and HO brass. Now the HO brass value has declined due to the superb plastic and Die cast models being made today and there sound systems are great too.

For about $300, one can get a great RTR set with great sound and digital control. Could not do that 10 years ago..

Today, I think we are lucky to be in this hobby, it is expensive but it is more affordable than before. Also, Trains can keep their value a lot better than, let's say, Remote control cars or airplanes (which I was heavy into a few years back). At least one can sell trains and get some money back ( some times even more money)...Can't do the same with many other hobbies...

If there's any "declining" going on in the values of older stuff, send it my way.

I always seem to overpay for what I want.

Hey, now there are 2 of us and you are most welcome! I think we are definitely the minority around here. I don't know what happened to me with steam? We lived very near to a BNSF double main line for 35 years and the diesels just took over I guess? I am especially happy about this when I see the prices of the new steamers!  I actually do have 1 steamer from a 1982 Thunder Freight set that was my daughters. I don't really count it as mine, still hers. Don't know what steamer it is, would have to look to see what it was.

I'm also in the minority only buying BNSF stuff or possibly a few cars from other western roads (fallen flags that are now BNSF). I'm prototypically challenged, so the details don't mean a lot to me either. I do have 1 UP engine and a few UP cars, they have trackage rights on the BNSF main we were near.

I started with a couple MTH starter sets and then got DCS soon afterward. I ordered a Legacy system last Sept. when I got my first BNSF Legacy diesel. Still waiting for it, then I will have both systems. I kind of like the idea of the 2 systems, more odd man out stuff I guess? Since I got re-started MTH has made a lot more BNSF than Lionel.

I have never been to the east coast except to Florida a few times. We lived there for 2 years when I was a kid. So I have no interest in the eastern roads either, putting me further in the minority around here. That's another nice advantage though, they don't make a lot of BNSF stuff, so I don't have as much to choose from as the eastern road folks. Makes purchasing decisions easier and costs less too!

Although the electronics are what got me back into trains, I too have some concerns about the longevity and availability of them. On the brighter side, I have been dabbling in electronic stuff (definitely not an expert by a long shot) and some of the current chips in use today have been around for many years and are still very popular. Don't know which ones they use in the trains, but maybe there is hope. I think this is what just happened to delay the Legacy systems, but they managed to find a way to replace the discontinued chip(s). I'm hoping they might have even made some improvements, probably wishful thinking?

almost

This is along the lines of what I was wondering. This price decline may be due to the modern electronics and folks wanting the modern power to go with them. Like the Powerhouse 180's with the excellent breakers for instance.

That is exactly what I ended up doing. I have only the newer modern electronic engines, so after reading many posts from all the very knowledgeable electronics folks around here, I went with the PH-180's instead of the older type transformers.  May still get an older one or two for accessories as my layout advances. Maybe they will be even less by then!

Wonder if the new ZW-L's will last as long as the old ZW's? The old ones appear to be just about indestructible, saw inside of one the other day at my LHS. What a beast!

We are definitely getting more bang for the buck these days with all the great features of the new offerings by almost all of the manufacturers. A couple of those starter sets are what pushed me over the edge and re-started me in trains a couple years ago. They made me an offer I couldn't refuse on them! My brother-in-law has a massive HO collection, he's been at it for maybe 50 years, possible longer. No layout, just collects them. No idea of value or even exactly what he has, he lives in a different city. Will have to inquire further next time I talk to him.

Buy hi, sell low, that's the way I always end up too!

Values vary continually.  Sooner or later you may be up.  It's like waiting for a wave.

quote:

Wonder if the new ZW-L's will last as long as the old ZW's?

If one allows for simple repairs, such as replacing a bad cord, carbon rollers, and rectifier disk, the original Postwar ZW transformers will be working long after the ZW-L's break down.