Seems to me, almost indefinitely. The railroads using catenary were usually pretty certain to lubricate the wire periodically. Now, we're talking about different severity of uses when you compare trolley pole use to pantograph. Out at the trolley museum in East Troy, WI, the wire in 1972 when we began museum operation, was the same wire that was hung in 1907 when the line first opened, and it was still in excellent shape.
I am aware that the Pennsy did some wire replacement on their electrified lines, but there was much higher use, much higher voltage and power consumption, and higher pantograph pressure against the wire. it was hare to tell if the replacement was a general, overall replacement or simply a repair to some damaged sections of wire.
Paul Fischer