Looking into the crystal ball

@Mike Wyatt posted:

OK- looking at trends and into the crystal ball-  it would seem obvious that model railroading will go toward radio control of battery-powered DC trains, running over rails that could be un-powered.  

Power- Look at what is currently available used on airplanes helicopters, and drones - lithium rechargeable battery packs the size of 2 Chiclets back to back are already available in the DC voltages we use now, if not (yet) in the capacities to run a locomotive.  Yet.  

All that is needed is further miniaturization and greater battery capacity, all of which seem to already be in process. And,  we need systems that re-charge locomotives on the fly.  That way,  we would't have to have charger tracks or remove battery packs for recharging. 

Control systems- 2.4 gHz transmitters and receivers (same as cell phones) are already in place and the norm in model flying, and boats.  The current air transmitters are probably too large for us to accept, after hand-held control the size of LionChief, etc.  But again- miniaturization is the only barrier to reality. 

It would make no difference if we retain our AC-powered (or DC in other scales) systems and the powered systems would allow the operation of all trains, even all trains, old and new, simultaneously.  

 

I don't see AC three rail going away any time soon.  "Dead" rail is certainly an option, but the battery packs remain troublesome.  There is certainly a growing penetration in the G Scale market, but it seems to be a custom option.  I also think the issue will the size of the batteries to drive our cherished locomotives such as a scale die-cast Big Boy and pull 50+cars.  This is going to continue to require a constant AC power source.  Similarly a long line of lighted passenger cars will need the same.  Some things will be very slow to change.

Battery powered two rail has been available for at least five years.  The infamous demonstration of removing the engine from the track and running it on the table cloth is an attention grabber.  How many on this forum run articulated engines with fifty cars behind it? How many engines run for thirty minutes at a time?  I'd submit very few.  If you need twelve lighted passenger cars, put a battery in one of the head end cars.  A charging port in the side of the engine between the drive axles would hardly be noticeable.  Or open the water hatch of the tender and have access to the charging port.  Anything to make the hobby easier for the new comer is a plus. How many on this Forum would change their track plan this week if it were not for the under table wiring? How much time would be devoted to building kits, placing scenery, running trains if you didn't have to block and wire the layout? John in Lansing, ILL

I don't think the size of radio transmitters for airplanes and boats would necessarily be relevant to the size of a model railroad transmitter. It would be operating at close range, comparatively speaking, and with less atmospheric interference. You could go up in size with a garden railroad or other larger pike that spanned a room or two. 

I am interested in the continuing development of dead rail technology. It would take away the largest hurdle of designing and building a layout, in my mind, the electrical wiring and the decoders required. 

@Gpritch posted:

I don't see AC three rail going away any time soon.  "Dead" rail is certainly an option, but the battery packs remain troublesome.  There is certainly a growing penetration in the G Scale market, but it seems to be a custom option.  I also think the issue will the size of the batteries to drive our cherished locomotives such as a scale die-cast Big Boy and pull 50+cars.  This is going to continue to require a constant AC power source.  Similarly a long line of lighted passenger cars will need the same.  Some things will be very slow to change.

I agree, and think that powered track has some advantages.  But I do agree with the remote control becoming standard.  I think Lionel's progression - clearly they are moving toward one electronics package that runs in conventional, TMCC/Legacy for their legacy control system owners, and LC+/bluetooth.  Regardless of scale and manufacturer I would expect all model railroading to follow that route.